I have to wonder how much of this is about fighting the Ukraine, and how much is a scarcely disguised form of involuntary thanasia.
No doubt.
The prisoners were not fighting much anyway. They got sent out in groups of ~4, and when they get shot (>prob90), the better units behind them see where the Ukrainians are located, and they call in artillery fire from ~10km back.
So Ukrainians are using drones heavily, dropping grenades onto the above and thinning them out as much as they can. The Russians learnt that their best chance is to pretend to be dead, but they have not been doing it very well, occassionally scratching themselves.
It’s also been suggested that if the Wagner lot fail (which looks prob99), Putin can blame the failure on them, along with others, and then extracting himself out of Ukraine won’t look like a total Russian cockup.
Russian losses are running around 1k/day, and there is some consensus that Ukrainian losses are 1/7 to 1/5 of Russian ones.
That makes sense – and explains why there has been so much drone footage on the news feeds recently.
Peter wrote:
Russian losses are running around 1k/day, and there is some consensus that Ukrainian losses are 1/7 to 1/5 of Russian ones
I hope that is true, as I think a pre-condition for peace will be a status quo that is too painful for both sides. If Russia thinks it will win a battle of attrition, then the status quo won’t be sufficiently painful, and the sooner we can get to a comprehensive and sustainable peace, the better.
The Ukrainians are just so much smarter
Peter wrote:
The Ukrainians are just so much smarter
I think the command structure also plays a major role. The Russian forces leave little decision-making to lower levels and that is something which takes a long time to change as it is ingrained in both the minds of the soldiers and in the organisational structure.
Another great analysis
Particularly
00:46:11 — WAGNER IN UKRAINE
This is quite illuminating on Russia. Smelly old slippers… great description for all forms of socialism, etc.
The USSR modification to the ICAO intercept procedure
Is it the angles of the camera, or are they intercepting from slightly below and climbing over the drone while dumping the fuel?
On seeing the video, a colleague pointed out at that in future, the drone should be equipped with a spark generator! When fuel is dumped on it, generate a spark and watch the mig go pufff!
On a further thought, I’m surprised that the fuel dump is so close to the exhaust of the aircraft. It seems too easy of a spot to get ignited by their own exhaust. Obviously it works, but it looks strange to me.
