LeSving wrote:
For sure is complete bullshit
Probably most of all the “background” stuff published is. The truth is always the first victim of any warfare.
With any of such actions, the main question always is qui bono. Who wanted to achieve what goal and for what purpose.
Certainly the US qualifies, as they were opposed as heck to Northstream. But they are not the only ones.
If the main goal was to deprive Putin of money and to stop Germany to depend on his gas, quite a lot of nations qualify, Ukraine foremost, but also NATO itself, obviously without Germany being in the loop.
Russia itself had no reason to do it other than to “frame” the US, but at a high cost. Then again, looking at what Putin has thrown overboard in terms of economic damage to his country, who knows. Attacks on own interests are not exactly unknown in warfare either.
Add to it green fanatics which wish to disrupt any form of fossile energy but don’t have the means to do this kind of sabotage?
So as it stands, unless someone talks, we may never know or not for a long time. And even if someone talks, nobody will believe him in all likelyhood unless it’s one of the presidents himself who claims the attack.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
Who wanted to achieve what goal and for what purpose.
There are only three IMO. Either Russia, a green/red/brown activist group with German ties, or someone with ties to the middle East. The purpose has most probably nothing to do with the war in Ukraine, but it created the perfect opportunity to just do it when the confusion and speculations already were wide open, and the likelihood of getting it fixed was uncertain. The purpose was to inflict damage. The war in Ukraine gave the opportunity to inflict longer lasting damage. What people seem to forget (or maybe they don’t know), is that maintaining and repairing pipelines is done every day. This one is in shallow water, and could be repaired within weeks.
My personal opinion is that Putin never wanted these pipelines. It’s the work of (rather independent) oligarchs from both Germany and Russia. Fast money, and lots of it, for Russian/German oligarchs and cheap fuel for Germany. For Russia to fuel the German economy with stupidly cheap fuel is as stupid as stupid gets for someone who’s goal is to “make USSR great again”. Russia hasn’t lost money on these explosions, rather the opposite has happened. The damage is in Germany first and foremost.
LeSving wrote:
My personal opinion is that Putin never wanted these pipelines.
I think he did as much as Merkel wanted it. Don’t forget, Northstream was the brainchild of Schröder, who lost no time to change into the Gazprom board after he was ousted as chancellor. He worked for Russian interests for a long time.
Merkel lived under the illusion that Russia and Putin in particular could be kept in check with the money and spoils from the West. Putin on the other hand wanted Northstream to be in the position of strenght towards Germany. Both miscalculated to an extent, but it is still very visible what kind of pressure Putin was able to exercise on Germany and it’s present chancellor well after the invasion due to their dependence on gas.
The only ones who opposed Northstream from the outset was the US, as they (rightly) feared that Germany would become dependent on Russia and due to that closer to Putin. The last two chancellors Germany had were unhealthily close to Putin, Schröder to the extent that one wonders just how far one can ballantly go before being indicted for treason, Merkel probably due to her GDR upbringing and general view on how to deal with Russia. With Northstream gone, Germany is back in the folds of the US sphere of influence.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
Merkel lived under the illusion that Russia and Putin in particular could be kept in check with the money and spoils from the West
I think this is just nonsense. Merkel and Germany has used the last decades to twist and turn and has pretty much turned every single stone to prevent Germany from paying real prices for gas. The whole economy is built on cheap and highly polluting energy, either gas or coal. Then they have given the impression of being “green”, littering the European landscape with wind turbines (also German companies). I can’t for the life of me see that Putin was the guy who wanted to sell underpriced gas to Germany. The only ones who have had any benefit of this are Germany + a few German and Russian entrepreneurs/oligarchs, resellers, distributors etc.
Gas has not been a lucrative business except after the Ukraine war started. Norway sell lots of gas to the UK and Europe (almost half of the consumption, maybe more in the UK). We got lots and lots of it, and nothing to use it for other than sell it, if for no other reason than to keep the wheels rolling. No earnings, more or less a side product of oil. As long as someone pay for the production cost, then why not, lots of people got their jobs tied to gas, good jobs. But as with all things, building pipelines is lucrative business. Being in charge of reselling and distribution is lucrative business and so on.
After the war it’s all upside down. Gas and LNG is huge. It’s almost as if Putin started the war just to have an excuse to close down the pipelines without anyone objecting. The gas not being sold to Germany doesn’t disappear. It’s either sold as gas, as LNG or simply stay put under ground to be sold later. Russia can get 10x as much for it today and tomorrow than what they would have got from it selling it directly to Germany. That is good business. Norway has never earned so much money on gas, ever, as last year, and with huge margins. Before the war Norway was actually starting to turn down the production of gas, after a decade or more trying to sell it to the UK and Europe with some real profit, but in vain.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
The only ones who opposed Northstream from the outset was the US, as they (rightly) feared that Germany would become dependent on Russia and due to that closer to Putin.
Again, nonsense. Cheap energy is cheap energy. Money speak here, the rest is nothing but a charade. Germany has lived on borrowed time, that’s true, because Putin would have closed down the lines in some way or the other regardless. These gas lines does not gain Russia, that’s the crucial point, and Putin is not stupid. The only trouble for the US here is it’s very unbeneficial to have to compete with a Germany who has dirt cheap energy at it’s disposal. The US were only trying to level the playing field.
I still think the overriding factor in “who did it” is “will anybody find out”.
You could not fake the moon landings. Not because it could not be done but because too many people would know.
So who could do this without a leak (no pun intended). Not the US. Would not be long before some ex Navy seal writes a book. Then Germany would go crazy (well, they would have to pretend to, at least). The reaction from the German public would be explosive towards the US. The whole 1st World US-hating champagne socialist crowd would go crazy. The 3rd World would gravitate towards Russia even more than they already do.
because neither of the real pilots on board wanted to take the controls from the heir to the throne.
They would have expected, probably correctly, that taking control would have been a career terminating move. Remember this is the RAF as of 30-40 years ago. Those pilots are now working in the CAA 
Seems like Putin is not giving up in his speech today. Rather the opposite.
LeSving wrote:
Seems like Putin is not giving up in his speech today. Rather the opposite.
I doubt there’s a giving up route for him. It’s either breaking Ukraine somehow or being terminated.
Another great analysis video
Another great analysis video
Long but worth of watching!
Bad news for Ukraine.
Russia has developed a new weapon
