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Russian invasion of Ukraine

We have some special rules for this thread, in addition to the normal EuroGA Guidelines. The basic one is that EuroGA will not be a platform for pro Russian material. For that, there are many sites on the internet. No anti Western posts. Most of us live in the "West" and enjoy the democratic and material benefits. Non-complying posts will be deleted and, if the poster is a new arrival, he will be banned.

After some discussion on the last zoom meeting, this thread has been unlocked.

Remember the participation conditions at the top of the page.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Too much pro Russia and other silly stuff posted – deleted.
Thread locked until some new developments appear.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Esteban wrote:

I must admit Peter’s obvious hatred of all-things russian does trigger me, I apologize for that, I am only human

Not at all – just observing the culture Lenin got the Czars killed off (and removed a key source of non-domestic DNA for the British royal family, from which they have never recovered) and started a wonderful culture of human rights, openness, tolerance of LGBTIQA+, modernised their armed forces, reduced vodka consumption by 9.5%, and under Putin things have got better and better since then:



Now they are busy converting yet another country with potential into a banana republic without bananas.

Everything Russia touches heads straight to the bottom of the barrel of mediocrity, poverty, and no hope.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Sure, but he is a former infantry soldier who later got into software. The expert view from structural people (I posted one link, I think) is that dams rarely fail in this way.

Google digs out loads of stuff – example

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Peter wrote:

Unfortunately the one on the dam came out about a day before the seismographic evidence.

Interesting video and a lot of what he says makes sense. Especially about Russian incompetence / negligence. Regarding the seismograph readings: a big dam collapsing would also trigger a seismic event.

My main point here is that he is curious and has an open mind about the truth, rather than jumping on the narrative of “the Russians blew it up”, even if it is not the preferred narrative of “his side”.

Biggin Hill

I watch his videos too. Most are pretty good.

Unfortunately the one on the dam came out about a day before the seismographic evidence.

He may still be right but it looks increasingly unlikely, as Russian traffic radio intercepts mount.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

See, here is the thing I value most about these debates.

Esteban has a different opinion from most here. He states it well, politely, people react also politely, and we all learn, if only about other people’s views.

I share his opinion that euroga is a good place for this, it has not turned into a pub brawl, nor into an echo chamber. And I think is it good to be reminded that we have to be careful that the truth is the first caualty of war.

Here is a great example how this is done. This guy is absolutely clear about the side he is on an that he holds Russia accountable for the dam collapse (so much is obvious from the title), but then provides a well reasoned analysis why he believes it is most likely carelessness (possibly deliberate) but not a well-timed explosion.

Not “somebody said they know somebody who saw trains with tanks in the night”.



Biggin Hill

That is not a rational discussion of future possibilities, that is your statement of your preferences how you wish the future will be. You can argue why that is a good outcome, and discuss what to do to achieve it, but such discussion has little to do with the situation on ground and/or the actual most likely outcomes.

You were asked a while ago how you would like to deal with this Russian invasion, and instead of replying you vanished for a while.

Your posts are a transparent pro-Russian stance dressed up as a desire to debate the topic.

The reality is really very simple. There are exactly two options

  • Russia gets out of Ukraine
  • We have a very nasty precedent-setting situation to deal with long-term

Is Ukraine really better-off now than it was at the end of Nov 22? Is it better off now than it was in Apr 22? Would it be better off in a couple of months after its offensive reaches its conclusion and untold thousands of people are killed on both sides? What is the price of territorial km^2 vs a human life? Or is it more about strategically weakening Russia and the Ukraine is just a road kill? To me, such arithmetic can be done only by sociopath and psychopath.

That is BS. Freedom has a value.

The “strategically weakening Russia” is an old anti-American argument which is invalid because Russia will always rebuild its military, after a while. This cannot be prevented. All that can be done – and will have to be done – is a military containment of Russia so it cannot have another go.

undermines the effort of the russian opposition that genuinely tries to move the Russia in the right direction

They have been at it since ~1920, with no success.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Peter wrote:

I was there in 1968 when their tanks rolled in, so obviously I am not going to be their #1 fan.

Very understandable. However, I will gently note that expressing hatred not against the Soviet/Russian regime, but against everything russian really undermines the effort of the russian opposition that genuinely tries to move the Russia in the right direction. This forum is inconsequential, but cultivating such attitude in the general public does not improve future prospects – neither for Russia, nor for anybody that has to deal with Russia, whether willingly or not.

Peter wrote:

And Slovakia has traditionally been close to Russia/USSR – via proximity, culture and trade. So you and I are not likely to agree.

Culturally/politically, Slovakia is on this line:
Czech Republic – Slovakia -———————————————————————————— Ukraine – Russia
Anybody who has been to these countries and/or knows their history understands that quite well.

In Slovakia there is a great multitude of opinions, with plenty of russophobes that gleefully welcome any news of dead Russians. As always, the extremes are the most visible. I don’t think I represent the typical Slovak position, if ever such thing exists.

Also: I have no delusions to change your stance – all I am saying is “Don’t get insulated in your information bubble, there is a risk of great dissapointment if you don’t face the reality but live in self-delusion/wishful thinking.” The fact that that is considered here as pro-russian stance just shows how much has the Overton window shifted.

Peter wrote:

There is only one possible solution: a military defeat of Russia.

That is not a rational discussion of future possibilities, that is your statement of your preferences how you wish the future will be. You can argue why that is a good outcome, and discuss what to do to achieve it, but such discussion has little to do with the situation on ground and/or the actual most likely outcomes.

Peter wrote:

But with the UKR offensive only just starting, and going quite well

Hm, allow me to disagree here – a couple of months of such ‘doing quite well’ might utterly exhaust (such an euphemism!) majority of UKR’s western trained reserves and equipment, without really achieving a strategic difference. So far, after a week of heavy fighting, it looks more like Uhledar in reverse. Anyway, we will see soon enough. I hope I am wrong.

Emir wrote:

I can’t believe a normal person is able to want for country to be run down and people enslaved.

I can’t really speak for Mr Fuhrermeister, he indeed seem a bit out of it, however as far as the moderates calling for ceasefire and peace talks (a.k.a. putin-appeasers, i.e. the majority of the world population): 1) nobody is calling for people enslavement, we get closer to it (more conscription) by prolonging the fighting 2) the longer the fighting is going on, the more the UKR is being run down and more people are dying.

Is Ukraine really better-off now than it was at the end of Nov 22? Is it better off now than it was in Apr 22? Would it be better off in a couple of months after its offensive reaches its conclusion and untold thousands of people are killed on both sides? What is the price of territorial km^2 vs a human life? Or is it more about strategically weakening Russia and the Ukraine is just a road kill? To me, such arithmetic can be done only by sociopath and psychopath.

Last Edited by esteban at 13 Jun 17:02
Slovakia
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