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Russian invasion of Ukraine

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The socialist/communist doctrine is that the State is one big machine and everybody is just a tooth on a gear wheel

The wheel, and especially the rest of the machine, is not for you to worry about.

More great analysis here, especially the bit comparing different donors after 23:00.


Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

One thing why this war may drag for a while is the “economic puzzle”: doom & gloom on Russia economy never materlized: for sure the -10% GDP scenario by end of 2022 would have triggered lot of domestic protests

The reality is that Russia found an “open backdoor” to trade externally with China, India, Turkey, Latin America while domestic economy got even more stimulus from war spending…meanwhile, IMF has put EU & UK in flat and negative

https://www.grid.news/story/global/2023/02/01/russias-economy-is-now-forecast-to-grow-faster-than-germanys-and-britains-in-2023-how-is-that-possible/

Last Edited by Ibra at 08 Feb 19:25
Paris/Essex, France/UK, United Kingdom

Ultranomad wrote:

an old Soviet saying: ‘If you take a little from a lot, it’s not theft but merely sharing’)

Another one a friend of mine keeps repeating is “They pretend to pay us, so we pretend to work”.

Good summary and as you say, definitly not exclusive to the Soviet system. Though in many of the former Warzaw Pact states this attitude is slowly deplaced by the younger generation having grown up and seen more of the world than what the Pravda wrote.

LSZH(work) LSZF (GA base), Switzerland

Interesting read about the pipeline sabotage

May well be BS but if true then Germany and others would have had to covertly agree to it.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Peter wrote:

Interesting read about the pipeline sabotage

That was also my first thought when it happened. The US is really the only (government) player who stands to gain anything by blowing up the pipeline. (Reducing the risk of Europe and particularly Germany caving in to continue getting Russian gas.)

The major thing speaking against this hypothesis is that the political risks would be enormous. As the article says, it is basically an act of war by the US against (primarily) its NATO allies Germany and Denmark. Even if the governments were in on this, it is not at all certain that the general public – at least in Germany – would agree.

Last Edited by Airborne_Again at 10 Feb 09:50
ESKC (Uppsala/Sundbro), Sweden

The US is really the only (government) player who stands to gain anything

Depends on how Machiavellian you are

If I was Germany and wanted to “swing the population around” to an anti Russian stance… this would be a smart move. After all, the whole world is still debating whose side Scholz was on.

This sort of thing is done all the time.

There have been allegations – I am sure untrue, because it would be unbelievably damaging if it ever leaked, and quite a lot of people would have known – that Bletchley Park knew about Pearl Harbour and didn’t tell the US. It would have been a very smart move to not tell the US.

the political risks would be enormous

Indeed.

Even if the governments were in on this

They could be. Just a nod; no formal agreement.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Ibra wrote:

One thing why this war may drag for a while is the “economic puzzle”: doom & gloom on Russia economy never materlized: for sure the -10% GDP scenario by end of 2022 would have triggered lot of domestic protests

The reality is that Russia found an “open backdoor” to trade externally with China, India, Turkey, Latin America while domestic economy got even more stimulus from war spending…meanwhile, IMF has put EU & UK in flat and negative

Thanks for the link. The article reads like bad news for the West. There are too many nations – including our nominal ally Turkey – who continue to trade with Russia unabashedly.

Also putting your country in war footing nominally stimulates the economy, that was already observable back in 1930s Nazi Germany. The main difference is that Nazi Germany had a shortage of raw materials, especially rare earths and oil, while Russia has all natural resources in abundance. It will be impossible to force them into submission economically.

Low-hours pilot
EDVM Hildesheim, Germany

It is indeed not good news, but the big difference between Russia selling stuff to the 3rd World and selling stuff to Europe etc is that in the former case they are not buying any valuable influence.

The sanctions also hit their ruling class pretty hard. I mean, there is no comparison between Oxford Street and Mogadishu. The latter has less crime

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Peter wrote:

I mean, there is no comparison between Oxford Street and Mogadishu. The latter has less crime

Indeed? I know some air crew which had to fly in and out of there. I am not sure they’d agree with that assessment.

Peter wrote:

After all, the whole world is still debating whose side Scholz was on.

Or Merkel for that matter. Scholz inherited the Northstream stuff from her and from Merkel’s predecessor who is now on the bord of Gazprom if I remember right. So that debate is not really astonishing.

MedEwok wrote:

There are too many nations – including our nominal ally Turkey – who continue to trade with Russia unabashedly.

Turkey is a sore topic. Clearly the main problem there is their leadership who aims to overturn the republic into a Caliphate. It will be interesting to see if recent events will finally put an end to that guy. The status of an ally is largely based on the fact that by throwing them out of NATO they would first of all kick all Western forces which have assets in Turkey out and also that their military is in a real quagmire.

It is however very telling that the evil “West” has immediately flown to help the people of Eastern Turkey and Northern Syria as much as they can. How this would work in the opposite case is anyone’s guess.

Unfortunately it is

LSZH(work) LSZF (GA base), Switzerland

Another “object” shut down over Alaska It’s balloon days in the USA.

Peter wrote:

May well be BS but if true then Germany and others would have had to covertly agree to it.

For sure is complete bullshit It was mentioned in the news here also, because Norway was to have sent a P-8 dropping a buoy that triggered the explosives. Problem is, no Norwegian P-8 is yet operational. The P-3Bs are still used.

From the text:

Norway was one of the original signatories of the NATO Treaty in 1949, in the early days of the Cold War. Today, the supreme commander of NATO is Jens Stoltenberg, a committed anti-communist, who served as Norway’s prime minister for eight years before moving to his high NATO post, with American backing, in 2014. He was a hardliner on all things Putin and Russia who had cooperated with the American intelligence community since the Vietnam War. He has been trusted completely since. “He is the glove that fits the American hand,” the source said.

I mean, this is very far into pure conspiracy/fiction land

On September 26, 2022, a Norwegian Navy P8 surveillance plane made a seemingly routine flight and dropped a sonar buoy. The signal spread underwater, initially to Nord Stream 2 and then on to Nord Stream 1. A few hours later, the high-powered C4 explosives were triggered and three of the four pipelines were put out of commission.

First: There are no operational P-8s in Norway as of yet. P-3Bs are still used, although some of the P-8s are in training mode. Secondly, it’s not the Navy that has them, it’s the Air Force.

Except for the P-8 “bugs”, this could have happened from a pure technical point of view. But so could many other scenarios. It’s wide open. The explosives could have been planted years ago, and the fuses may have been timed or triggered by a signal. You can spin any story you want around this. But that the “committed anti-communist Stoltenberg” should have any fingers involved is funny. I mean Stoltenberg as a committed anti-communist is just funny by itself. And what has communism to do with any of this?

A nice story for a Bond movie perhaps, only keep it somewhat close to reality regarding the P-8s.

The elephant is the circulation
ENVA ENOP ENMO, Norway
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