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Russian invasion of Ukraine

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Depens whether you mean won the military war or won the political war.

The US very successfully smashed the enemy in the Middle East. But there is a growing realisation, over the last few decades, that “nation building” doesn’t work, you don’t get a buy-in from a population that’s been brainwashed for decades and which has become accustomed to “comfortable certainties” even if totally undemocratic (typical communist/socialist/dictator status). So e.g. Russia, Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq, most of the 3rd World, will never be “fixable”.

The Allies won WW2. That was decisive, very important, and very successful. Yalta was a sell-out, unfortunately… IMHO that deal with the USSR should not have been done, especially as the US had the upper hand militarily (had nukes). In the same way it would be wrong for a deal to be done at this point in time with Russia over Ukraine.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Peter wrote:

that deal with the USSR should not have been done, especially as the US had the upper hand militarily (had nukes). In the same way it would be wrong for a deal to be done at this point in time with Russia over Ukraine.

The Allies included the USSR, which had about 6 times the manpower of the other allies. Stalin could have continued to the Atlantic if he had wished to.

I am no Communist by any measurable mean, but let’s not rewrite the past.

About the ammo situation,

  • France will receive 10k artillery shells in the whole year 2023 (given the probable rampup in progress). That makes for 2 days of UA firing.
  • The US have already sent 880k shells and produced 30k annually (so 6 days of UA firing) before the war (almost 30 years or peacetime production!!)
  • They have sent 10+ years of peacetime Javelin production
  • Stingers haven’t been produced for years
  • given the global supplies and workforce situation, I would say it is worst time ever for making ramp-ups.

Strange situation actually. I wonder who will empty its stocks first

LFOU, France

The Allies included the USSR

That I strongly disagree with. Well before WW2 ended, the west knew that the USSR were a bunch of bastards bent on world domination and spreading communism to every corner of the globe. Stalin in particular could be trusted only as far as you could throw him. I have read reams on 20th history and post-WW2 Cold War stuff in particular. The US knew from many sources (take a look at the Venona project for example, plus the whole commie espionage landscape) what the USSR was up to. The public position is that the USSR was a friend but behind the scenes it was the exact opposite.

The US also had nukes. Not many, admittedly, in 1945, but the USSR had zero and despite help from high quality espionage (Fuchs, the Rosenbergs, etc) didn’t get any for a while. IMHO the US could have done a much better deal and prevented Czechoslovakia, Poland, etc, from being f******d up for the next 44 years. I can understand why this wasn’t done; I think mainly because everybody was tired of war, but partly because a lot of people in the West believed that Uncle Joe had the sun shining out of his a**e and there would be poor public support for squeezing the USSR.

which had about 6 times the manpower of the other allies. Stalin could have continued to the Atlantic if he had wished to.

That is again not my info. The USSR was exhausted. Their particular way of fighting – feeding in “meat” until the Germans ran out of ammo – cost them 20m dead (compare with 250k Americans for example – much smarter). Stalin did say ~1945 “we will rebuild and in 10 years’ we will have another go” but that never happened (he died, for a start, but nukes prevented WW3 anyway).

About the ammo situation

Yes; that is the result of decades of peace For Europe, peace safeguarded by the US

Once the US gears up production, nothing is going to hold it back. Look at WW2.

Ukraine is also getting lots of ammo donated by Russia

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Peter wrote:

the west knew that the USSR were a bunch of bastards bent on world domination and spreading communism to every corner of the globe

My grandfather served on Royal Navy ships that escorted merchant ships to the Soviet Union. He said they felt like turning their guns on the Soviets every time they went there.

Andreas IOM

I am not surprised!

I think this is a great photo. They have plenty of stuff to climb onto (I remember climbing right through a MIG on display, obviously with the engine removed) but their teeth will fall out fast

This is staggering:

but if you look at pics of captured Russian “hideouts” where they basically live in their own sh*t, it’s not surprising. Armies have always recruited from the lowest socio-economic groups, and this is a deliberate policy in Russia (don’t recruit from Moscow area, because the body bag count gets around the internet) but Western armies do teach their 16+ year old recruits how to manage these basic personal things.

Does anyone know what this box does

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Peter wrote:

Does anyone know what this box does

MILES

EDQH, Germany

Missile attacks on Kiev and other cities this morning. All that is missing now is a change of payload.

LSZH(work) LSZF (GA base), Switzerland

I don’t think he’ll hit Kyiv with a tactical nuke, it has too much historical importance to Russians.

Same with the border regions that he’s claiming to protect, he cannot realistically hit those.

So that leaves the wide open spaces of the rest of Ukraine. Farmland, small towns, etc. Plenty of space for it, and can claim afterwards that the target was Ukrainian military units forming up to invade Russia.

That said, I don’t believe that if Putin gave the order it would actually happen.

EGLM & EGTN

I agree.

Kiev has good air defences and they shoot down nearly all Russian missiles, but they do miss some, the system can be overwhelmed, and the hypersonic ones cannot be stopped with anything Ukraine has been given so far. Russia is spending a lot of money though to make this militarily-worthless point.

The US would do something “interesting” if a nuke was used and they have told Russia what it would be – exactly or roughly.

On the story of Russian life-sentence prisoners going to war and being able to go free if they survive for 6 months, I’ve just read that out of 370 only 50 were still alive after x weeks, so there is reportedly a big reduction in how many are going for this option.

This is as expected:

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

This is how Russia fights a war.

This intercepted call reveals how defensive lines operate for the Russians: first in the line are convicts guarded by mobiks [mobilised people] in the second line, who are in turn guarded by regular forces.

Unbelievable in the post-WW1 era, but even in WW1 you didn’t get shot like this. Well, the WW2 Russian army had special squads for catching and shooting deserters; this time the process is integrated…

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom
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