Peter wrote:
My money would be on Putin withdrawing, but not before he takes things to the very edge. This isn’t 1968… CZ was already the property of the USSR, ex Yalta.
Doesn’t look like it anymore. :(
I can’t see anything specific.
IMHO, 150k on the ground is not enough for a fast resisted invasion of Ukraine. But I am not an expert 
This is not like most of the WW2 occupations which were basically unresisted. But Ukraine may just capitulate too, to save lives.
Ukraine has 170k on the ground. That’s roughly 169k more than most of Europe, if you don’t count US servicemen in Europe
Peter wrote:
I can’t see anything specific.
IMHO, 150k on the ground is not enough for a resisted invasion of Ukraine. But I am not an expert
This is not like most of the WW2 occupations which were basically unresisted. But Ukraine may just capitulate too, to save lives.
Ukraine has 170k on the ground. That’s roughly 169k more than most of Europe, if you don’t count US servicemen in Europe
Evacuations of civilians and complete mobilisation of military-age men, increased shelling etc.
Plus, parts of OSCE has evacuated a week ago – just like they did before the conflict in Georgia in 2008. :)
I think it all now comes to “you either complete the outstanding actions of Minsk agreement in full and in order as it was specified or we will do it for you” message from Russia.
And Zelensky cannot do it:
1. He has got elections coming
2. As per agreement he needs first to create a special status for the two regions, offer full immunity for the previous military actions, run elections there and THEN get back the control of the border with Russia.
People in the west of Ukraine are not going to like 2., so see number 1. The agreement was signed half a decade ago under you could say a duress.
Some cynics say that as he is going to lose power anyway, he prefers to be a president in exile, rather than just an ex-president that gave away part of the country. :)
Russia rolled a huge force into Afghanistan
It was never a huge force. To do an invasion, you need to go in with overwhelming force –
Over a half a million Russian troops served in Afghanistan between 1979 and 1989. I’d say that was pretty large.
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US and allies did no better in Afghanistan than the USSR.
Finland was never Russia. The Afghan people’s had no cultural similarity with the USSR nor the USA .
Ukraine was linked to Russia from the start of states. Same language, religion, history.
Maoraigh wrote:
Finland was never Russia.
Before the revolution?
Maoraigh wrote:
Ukraine was linked to Russia from the start of states. Same language, religion, history.
Did you mean similar language, religion, culture?
They are not the same…
arj1 wrote:
Before the revolution?
Yes and no. After Sweden was forced to secede Finland to Russia in 1809, it became an autonomous Grand Duchy with the Russian tsar as Grand Duke. Towards the end of the 19th century when Nikolaj II had become tsar there were some attempts to russify Finland. They met with strong resistance and were eventually shelved. After the revolution, of course, Finland became independent.
gallois wrote:
Russia rolled a huge force into Afghanistan and had to retreat as the body bags and costs rose.
Someone else also retreated from Afghanistan recently Today Taliban is in power there after 20 years of fighting it down. This cannot be compared. The whole greater region is the heartland of the Russian empire going back at least to the viking Kiev-Rus era. About 20% of Ukrainians are “ethnic” Russian. Besides, who are going to do the fighting? The Ukrainians got to do something else than sit at bars drinking, hoping nothing will happen, or packing their stuff running to Poland.
Peter wrote:
There is a very good reason for the US wanting to be in charge, given that they are paying most of the bills. Look at European history The number of countries in Europe who have a “backbone” is one of the smallest possible non-negative even integers. Probably comparable to the number of GA pilots willing to get together and buy an airfield which is threatened with closure by property sharks
They would have to pay a much larger bill to achieve the same level of international safety of the US soil as they have today if they are withdrawing expenses/influence from NATO. The elephant in the room is Germany. Germany created the worlds most devastating military force in no time in the late 30s. Germany is equally capable today, perhaps much more so. Nothing much will happen to the current situation in which Germany has no intention of doing this, but this is the the requirement if the US is to step back. If that happens, NATO will disintegrate because a separate alliance (a true alliance) with Germany would make much more sense for lots of countries, even for those not in NATO today. The reason this will never happen in any foreseeable future is mainly because NATO works well for all parties involved. It’s 100% pragmatic, It’s the overall less costly way and it’s the only way that assures long term stability within Europe. The requirement is a strong, friendly and outward reaching USA, which for most part has always been the case (it has to be lead by true leaders, not introvert, self preserving and “clever” business men).
Russia only see NATO as what it really is; an allegiance to the US. They see Ukraine becoming a NATO member as the whole of Ukraine becoming a puppet of the USA. Russia is 100% correct in this assessment, military speaking. The point is, no one cares about that, it’s not important. What Russia don’t understand, at all, is that this is none of their business. What NATO really should have done here is to rush into Ukraine with a huge “helping force” a long time ago to teach Russia a lesson once and for all. Russia has made itself increasingly irrelevant during the last 20-30 years. All they do is to make fuss, and it’s all because Putin wants to be the new Tsar. Russia has lost all credibility and is today nothing but a bankrupt bully laying on the back yelling and screaming.
Anyway, no invasion as of yet. Maybe it will stay that way?
LeSving wrote:
Anyway, no invasion as of yet. Maybe it will stay that way?
For all our sakes I hope you’re right. In any case I cannot imagine Russia invading any NATO country as that would be WW3, and they know this. The problem at the moment is Putin will lose face if he backs down, so he has to find some way to exit that doesn’t make him look bad.
He controls the media so only 4% of the Russian population think that Russia is doing anything wrong, and that this is not all an American plot to belittle their country.
So at the moment Putin is safe enough to back off and spin some story of how he has won what he wanted. But even owning the media there comes a stage when owning the media is not enough to save face.
He also knows that if he does invade he has to win well and quickly, otherwise he will no longer be perceived as the strong man.
