Russian invasion of Ukraine

LeSving wrote:

Taliban forces were nothing but under educated peasants fighting against the cream of what the west could cook up. That didn’t go so well, for the western forces.

That was the age-old (and as yet unsolved) problem of how one fights against a guerrilla force, especially when one doesn’t have a clear aim and political considerations create challenging rules of engagement.

Not sure any of that would be a consideration in war against Russia in Ukraine.

Graham wrote:

Irrelevant what Russia wants or what it feels about ‘NATO expansion’. NATO is a free-choice military alliance that countries may apply to join and are free to leave. Putin may view it as a sphere of influence, but it isn’t, not in the same way he envisages his. Perhaps if he wasn’t so aggressive the countries immediately to his west wouldn’t be so desperate to join? NATO nations on his doorstep pose no actual threat and he knows that, they just mean he can’t invade them. Talk of a buffer really means Russian client states. He’s a fairly smart cookie – he’s not paranoid.

All true and makes sense.

Question will be how far is he willing to go. Yes he is smart, yet it appears to me that his statecraft has changed in recent years from bringing Russia back up to himself being in the center of his attention. Did you get how Trump calls out his moves yesterday? Two Narcissists who got along just fine (even though Putin most probably just knew how to play Trump, out of his own experience). That is what I think is quite dangerous with someone who has nukes.

Putin’s position in Russia is anything but safe and he has (his own fault) become the pariah now. Means he will be backed more and more into a corner, even if, or particularly if he manages to occupy all of Ukraine. People in a corner with no way out are dangerous. So again, the question is, will he resort to threaten or use nukes on NATO, should NATO come to military defense of Ukraine?

dublinpilot wrote:

Ivan who married a European and moved to Italy where he owns and runs a small cafe isn’t our enemy. But sure all the oligarchs who have benefited from Putin’s ‘generosity’, yes.

Russia has seen a lot of emigration from there because of the way Putin has run the country but also before. I know quite a few and not one of them is pro Putin. Attack Oligarchs who profit from him absolutely, as long as you can be sure who is on which side. Attack Russians all over the world including the opposition he has already displaced? Hell no. We don’t need a repetition of what happened to Americans of Japanese origin during WW2 or other ethnic groups who get blamed for actions of the very people they escaped from. How do you tell the difference? Difficult as heck some times especially if you are in a hurry.

Graham wrote:

That was the age-old (and as yet unsolved) problem of how one fights against a guerrilla force, especially when one doesn’t have a clear aim and political considerations create challenging rules of engagement.

In the case of Afghanistan one whose combatants believe they go to paradise if they get killed in battle… which many said makes them absolutely fearless. One reason (simplified) why neither the Soviets nor the US achieved anything there.

Graham wrote:

Not sure any of that would be a consideration in war against Russia in Ukraine.

Given the way they have invaded before (e.g. the Hungarian and Prague insurrections during Soviet times) would suggest they would most probably try for a regime change which then hammers down any opposition with an iron fist I agree with you. They are after destroying the political system there, not turning the whole country into a pile of rubble.

NATO won’t attack even if he occupies all of Ukraine, we know that much, not least because none of the NATO capitals wishes to try if they gonna end up with a nuke on their heads. One thing which could be tried is to call his game and declare Ukraine neutral, like Sweden and Switzerland, with clear propositions how to enforce that. If as you say his anti NATO stance is only a bluff, he would ignore this and invade anyway, in which case his game is up. If he would accept this, a neutral Ukraine may well be a good solution for everyone.

“2) Arrest and deport every Russian from every EU and NATO country. Seize (not freeze) every last cent of their assets. Cut Russia off from every little bit of international trade and international cooperation. Make them like North Korea.”
There have been repeated attacks on people in the UK and EU countries. The above solution might work on them. But none of them have been Russian, except for attacks on Russians here.

around 75% of world uranium is mined by Russia and it’s allies (Kazakhstan,…).

I am sure the other 25% is enough for nuclear power.

My old hom town, Pribram, was producing trainloads of uranium ore, all being shipped to the USSR for their nuke manufacture. I used to play on the hills of the radiactive spoil from the mines

The head of the mines there, Karel Bocek, flew a Morava 200 (a search here for “Bocek” finds some mentions).

Then there are fast breeders…

arj1 wrote:

Not safe? Quite possibly. Pariah at home now? Not sure – 70-something percent of Russians allegedly support the recognition of the DNR/LNR.

Yea right and 99% or how many voted for him?

Oh, and I believe Kim of North Korea also got something like close to 100% of the vote. Comes with the job I suppose.

But to be serious, this thing may very well be an attempt by him to get the focus away from anything people might be opposing to. Nothing like a common enemy to do that. Worked for many unfortunately with usually frightening and terrible consequences.

Mooney_Driver wrote:

But to be serious, this thing may very well be an attempt by him to get the focus away from anything people might be opposing to. Nothing like a common enemy to do that. Worked for many unfortunately with usually frightening and terrible consequences.

He may – just may! – be overplaying his hand here, though. From what I read (admittedly, I have no idea how reliable any media reports from within Russia are these days), ordinary Russians don’t seem to thrilled by the prospect of war. Once the bodybags start arriving back home that mood can turn sour pretty quickly. The sad thing is that any change at the top will have been paid with the blood of thousands of civilians and conscripts.

Did anyone doubt it would?

Our response of a few days ago looks completely feeble. As some MP said yesterday, you might as well have sanctioned the Dunfermline Building Society.

We need to take the initiative, do something that shocks him and puts him on the back foot. It’s the only way to deal with a bully.

Maoraigh wrote:

Seize (not freeze) every last cent of their assets. Cut Russia off from every little bit of international trade and international cooperation. Make them like North Korea.”

And a large part of the Western and in particular UK economy would collapse. Then the small question of the Nord Stream supplies.

Gotta love him though. Does exactly what it states on the tin. If only we had a similar backbone in our own (elected ) wimps. Happy to lock up their populations but when the chips are down..