Lots of people around like that. It was said that if you ended up in a lift at Apple’s HQ with Steve Jobs, you could not be sure if you still had your job by the time one of you got out of the lift.
Graham wrote:
In any case I doubt that the Russians have any technology that could even see an F-22 or an F-35, let alone shoot them down.
I was under the impression that it is possible to ‘see’ stealth aircraft, albeit not well enough to target them. Admittedly that’s not as convincing as having a recognisable wreck of a Western aircraft to parade for the cameras.
If countries adjacent to the Ukraine permitted, it might be possible for modern fighters to shoot down many Russian aircraft operating within the Ukraine.
Peter wrote:
Which date would you choose for the rollback?
My argument was tongue-in-cheek to try to illustrate the ludicrousness of Putin’s claims to sovereignty, and if it was unhelpful given the events I apologise. I remember looking at maps of Czechoslovakia & the Austro-Hungarian empire and being startled at how much the borders shifted over time. A large chunk of the Ukraine used to be attached to what is now Slovakia.
I worry a lot about what the conflict will mean for Ukranians living in Russia and Russians living in the Ukraine. Is the current conflict setting the countries up for internecine conflict in the years to come? What do most Russians within the Ukraine want to happen? If a Russian living within the Ukraine asks Ukranian authorities for a gun to defend the Ukraine, will they give it to him? I don’t see much discussion of this; perhaps the answers are unknowable.
kwlf wrote:
What do most Russians within the Ukraine want to happen?
Holy shit, what a question! Most people have a family, have loved ones. We all have kids or parents or grandparents or nephews who we do not want to loose.
So what will these PEOPLE want? The end of any action of crime and war.
All these narratives in the dawn of war only work, if you start telling that “these” are not “people” like “we” are.
And on the other side, no war will ever be possible, if you start to understand, that the majority of mankind shares the same feelings with you, that they do not want to loose their loved ones. That there are no “Russians” or “Ukrainians”. There are people.
kwlf wrote:
If a Russian living within the Ukraine asks Ukranian authorities for a gun to defend the Ukraine, will they give it to him?
Today I read that they even want to give guns to captured russian soldiers, if they are willing to fight for the freedom of Ukraine.
alioth wrote:
Or perhaps not. There was a video the Russians put out of their chief spy answering Putin’s questions. The guy’s voice is trembling, and he has that stiffness of movement of someone who is abjectly terrified. His inner circle is likely ruled by fear, and it’s probably about as safe to be around Putin as it is a watering hole during crocodile season.
I saw that video and thought the same thing.
If Putin falls, what happens afterwards will probably depend on how he falls. If he gets taken out by one of his own, then it’s probably going to be more of the same with a new name.
If he falls because of public opinion turning against him and mass protests, then there is an opportunity for someone new to take over and turn Russia in a new direction.
It might be far fetched, but imagine a new leader from outside Putin’s circle who wishes to open up press freedoms and modernise Russia’s economy and move closer to the west. Putin’s nuclear threats would still ring in the ears of the west. Perhaps an agreement with a new non-Putin type leader could agree mutual nuclear arms reductions with the USA, and opening of the press in Russia, restoration of public rights and UN overseen free elections, in return for removing western sanctions and massive investment in Russian to help it on the path to modernisation. The new leader could be a reformer taking Russia on a more modern, less confrontational path.
It’s probably a long shot and will only happen if Putin is removed by public revolt. But it’s also one that is likely to be supported by China too as it would reduce Russia as a threat to them.
Wishful thinking? Probably.
I can’t see a replacement doing the same thing. Putin has taken Russia back to the Middle Ages. This is really useless for what could be a fairly prosperous country, with loads of natural resources to keep it going.
kwlf wrote:
If countries adjacent to the Ukraine permitted, it might be possible for modern fighters to shoot down many Russian aircraft operating within the Ukraine.
It’s possible, although the ranges involved are a bit extreme – especially where the majority of the ground fighting is taking place at present.
I believe the longest range A-A missile the US possesses is the AIM-54 Phoenix, which can manage maybe ~100nm. The more modern and reliable AIM-120 AMRAAM, their core A-A weapon, is somewhat shorter in range.
Perhaps the fear of such things keeps the Russians back though?
Edit: Phoenix missiles are no longer in service. The latest variant of the AMRAAM lists max range as “>86nm”.
UdoR wrote:
Holy shit, what a question! Most people have a family, have loved ones. We all have kids or parents or grandparents or nephews who we do not want to loose.So what will these PEOPLE want? The end of any action of crime and war.
Personally I tend to see the conflict as being between Putin’s ‘mafia state’ and the relatively functional government of the Ukraine, rather than between peoples, so I can readily see that a Russian living in the Ukraine might prefer to remain an Ukrainian subject than to become a Russian one. I can also see that not being subject to Russia’s current leadership is a prize worth fighting for.
But is this what people on the ground are actually fighting for? What would people in the Donetsk and Luhansk want if they had a referendum?
That there are no “Russians” or “Ukrainians”. There are people.
I don’t disagree, but I recognise that there are ultra-nationalists everywhere who feel differently from you and me.
If Russian Ukrainians are being welcomed as equals in taking up arms against Russia, then I hope this bodes well for future peace within the Ukraine.
Peter wrote:
Aircraft-leasing companies working out how to recall billions of dollars of airplanes from Russia
Not too bad, though, for the russian airline because they won’t need the planes if they cannot fly to Europe…
kwlf wrote:
I worry a lot about what the conflict will mean for Ukranians living in Russia and Russians living in the Ukraine. Is the current conflict setting the countries up for internecine conflict in the years to come? What do most Russians within the Ukraine want to happen? If a Russian living within the Ukraine asks Ukranian authorities for a gun to defend the Ukraine, will they give it to him? I don’t see much discussion of this; perhaps the answers are unknowable.
This is a very valid block of questions.
Primarily I would think that most people no matter where they are from would ask for immediate stop of hostilities and a return (or rather start) to the negotiating table. Even though a lot of doors have been shut now for that, at least as long as the Russian leader is Putin.
Anyone living in Russia appears to be in danger of reprecussions as soon as they wish to protest or generally dissent.
Russians living in Ukraine, depends. In Donbass there will be those who welcome the situation and hope to get what some of them consider their territorry under Russian rule. Elsewhere, I would expect that most humans in this situation will want this to end right now, before they are killed or hurt and their properties damaged or destroyed. Russians living there are certainy in a difficult situation, as are many Russians now around the world.
kwlf wrote:
Personally I tend to see the conflict as being between Putin’s ‘mafia state’ and the relatively functional government of the Ukraine, rather than between peoples, so I can readily see that a Russian living in the Ukraine might prefer to remain an Ukrainian subject than to become a Russian one
There is one bit which appears to come up again and again. Putin obviously hates the current Ukrainian President, quite possibly not only because he deems him unworthy for the job or an imposter (as his “own” pro-Russia president was ousted in the Orange Revolution, which I think will be known as the starting point of all this) but quite possibly also because he is Jewish? It was kind of weird to say the least to hear Putin say he wants to denazify Ukraine, given that the person he wants to kill most is a Jew? It would not be the first time that such label calling reflects on themselves.
dublinpilot wrote:
If Putin falls, what happens afterwards will probably depend on how he falls. If he gets taken out by one of his own, then it’s probably going to be more of the same with a new name.
Frankly I think there will be a lot of folks inside his inner circle who are very uncomfortable with his course of action. If he gets deplaced by his deputies, e.g. for wishing to unleash nuklear strikes onto the West or similar, it could well be that his immediate successor may be PM Dimitry Medwedev. While Medwedev has been talking Putin’s talk recently, his Presidency was quite different, which many think was why Putin was so adamant to change the law so he could stay for life rather than swap with Medwedev every 4 years. If someone of the “reasonable” kind steps in, things could improve rather quickly. Even if such a transitory leadership may be temporary.
A complete change of regime is quite unlikely however and has other dangers too. However, Putin has always been where he is largely because of the consent of the Oligarchs around him who at the moment will not be too happy with him. I would think the largest danger for him comes from there at the moment.
I guess the most dangerous situation arises when Putin realizes he is in immediate danger of loosing his power and position. He may well go into self-destruct mode and take as many with him as he can. And with the nukes he commands, that might be a lot of us as well, if his Generals can not stop it.
