For those with half an hour at their disposal who want a perspective that is more rational and strategic than the “madman Putin” / “NATO provoked this by breaking promises” / “It’s all [take your pick]’s fault” or similar simplistic narrative.
I am not saying this is “the truth”, but it makes two key points that are absent in most of this debate so far: Natural resources and the desire to prevent Ukraine from becoming a competitor, and an attempt to considerably shorten the western flank subject to potential attack….
Although posted a day ago, this appears to have been done a few days before Putin’s invasion.
I’m looking at the UN assembly, the ukrainian representative said that Ukraine has opened a hotline for russian families named ‘come back alive from Ukraine’ so that russian family can know about living prisoners name (claiming roughly 200 pow today, 4300 killed…)
I find this one also very nice
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/F-znzh6uDOE
Putin has made a massive miscalculation with this war.
I fear not. The whole thing could have been done with in a day. On the contrary, it’s dragging on without significant military success. There’s no airborne dominance etc… Some captured soldiers seem to be very young and inexperienced draftees. It makes one wonder where the „real army“ is? Whatever the reason to use cannon fodder now, it is most probably intentional, and thus worrying.
Russia also had to use a mercenary army in Syria. I wonder why.
@Dublinpilot the Russian population splits into 3 distinct groups. There are the young IT, twitter, facebook Savvy who know that is happening and take to the streets to protest Putin’s
A second similar group who don’t want to go out and get beaten up by police, arrested and lose all opportunity of a decent job if a job at all. They also think that protesting will change nothing.
The third group, usually older Russians, don’t have Smartphones, have never heard of FB or Twitter and get all their information from Russian State television, believe everything it says and thinks of Putin as the great leader. Also that Ukraine is the invader here backed by the West who just hate Russians.
Snoopy wrote:
It makes one wonder where the „real army“ is? Whatever the reason to use cannon fodder now, it is most probably intentional, and thus worrying.
As far as I understand it is standard tactics. Send in lightly armored vehicles/scouts to probe the resistance and get an overview of the situation. Then – bang – in with the heavy stuff at the right places. A bit odd we haven’t seen any so far.
Or use cannon fodder (while „saving“ the real deal for later) in hope to provoke a reason materializing to „justify“ a wanted escalation.
Also, since when is it standard tactics to give the enemy time to build a really strong moral, paramilitary structures, arm civilians etc..?
One would think the „overview“ is long complete using intelligence before boots meet the ground.
If VP wanted, he could order to annihilate UKR from afar with guided ordinance and then just walk in and call for „elections“ to change the structures of power.
the Russian population splits into 3 distinct groups.
That I understand. But if the Rupple collapses and people lose their jobs and savings, it no longer matters what the TV is telling them. They might not protest the war but they will protest what is happening to them. People with nothing left to lose don’t fear arrest.
Also, since when is it standard tactics to give the enemy time to build a really strong moral, paramilitary structures, arm civilians etc..?
I also wondered about that. I wonder if the posturing near the border in recent months was just that and the decision to invade was a more recent development with not enough planning?
I wonder if the posturing near the border in recent months was just that and the decision to invade was a more recent development with not enough planning?
Most likely.
If RU wanted, they could annihilate UKR from afar with guided ordinance and then just walk in and call for „elections“ to change the structures of power.
It’s a big place – bigger than France. This isn’t Czechoslovakia, 1968, which is a little place and where there was zero resistance by prior arrangement.
Also it is very possible that much of their hardware is junk.
Yes, maybe it’s dysfunctional.
