Peter wrote:
I am amazed at the West’s response. It did nothing after Crimea…
How do you heat your house? Hot air from the hangar talk section (just kidding).
Peter wrote:
If Putin does a nuclear strike then I will eat my oil filter.
In that scenario, that may very well be the most non-radioactive nutrition you can find…
It’s definitely standard tactics to probe the resistance. If it was the right tactics remains to be seen. Obviously Putin does not want to remove Ukraine from the face of the earth. He just want to insert a friendly government.
By sending in ill equipped/trained draftees?
20 years ago one of the most isolated/detached countries was mapped out to the tiniest bush and bunker busters hit the right „holes“.
There were not even iphones back then, so tech has advanced considerably. UAVs, high data grabbing satellites etc… Some IT student could probably hack the military and find out where and what…
What’s happening now looks more like what you do when you want to deflect media attention from a „romantic encounter“.
Snoopy wrote:
And it shall remain „liberated“, at least until the Romans make their cause. Does Cesar have any descendants?
Does adoption count? Octavian (Augustus) was Caesar’s adoptive son (posthumously by act of his last will), Caesar only had one surviving daughter, which herself had none, so the line died out rather quickly.
But that is really not far enough back. I say we hand back Europe to the Neanderthals and move back to Africa.
On the way back we should probably detour via the middle east and raze the cities in Mesopotamia, it increasingly looks like that whole civilisation idea was not as good as we thought, that’s where that whole mess started.
Assuming for now that Putin is not going to be taken out (for now), any suggestions how the West can offer him a way out without him losing face? He’s not the kind of guy who would take a loss graciously to put it mildly.
Peter wrote:
I am amazed at the West’s response. It did nothing after Crimea…
Big difference who runs the various governments now. At the time, Putin’s two enablers, Merkel and Obama were in power. They’re gone (good riddance) and the new people, especially in Germany, seem to have grown balls overnight. Good on them !
kwlf wrote:
Perhaps this is changing – I have read speculation that his motivation is to reunite the Orthodox countries. Personally I find it more likely that he dislikes Zelensky because he stands up to him.
Well, he has been on the warpath with Ukraine ever since the Orange revolution. Now the question is, will he face one himself?
aart wrote:
Assuming for now that Putin is not going to be taken out (for now), any suggestions how the West can offer him a way out without him losing face? He’s not the kind of guy who would take a loss graciously to put it mildly.
That is the question. Without it, I think the change of Peter finding an edible oilfilter will be a real necessity.
Several talking heads on TV, amonst whom former US generals and a minister from Latvia if I recall right are of the clear opinion that Putin is not bluffing. The question will be to what extent he will go. Explode a small nuke someplace as a demonstration of power, up to here but no further or the rest comes or will he make a in his eyes very powerful statement like eliminating one of the “dissenting” capitals, Berlin for instance? He may well be ready to take the consequence of a global confrontation if he realizes he has no way out. Extended suicide I think it’s called, even though the scope is different this time.
Yes, a (temporary) way out would be helpful but how do you do that with someone like this? The only thing I could think of is to declare Ukraine Neutral and under the protectorate of similar neutral states like Sweden or Finland. This obviously in exchange for immediate stop of fighting and the Russian Army retreating out of Ukraine immediately. This would remove the core casus belli. But I have doubts that at this stage anyone would be satisfied with that.
Snoopy wrote:
By sending in ill equipped/trained draftees?
That is mostly what the Russian army is. It’s not a job Russians choose – they are poorly paid (and often not paid at all for protracted periods of time) and the conditions are terrible. It doesn’t make for highly-motivated troops.
For smaller operations they use Spetsnaz, which are probably the only troops they have that are anywhere near western capabilities. Even then, Spetsnaz are probably inferior to ordinary troops in western armies and the regular Russian troops – mostly conscripts – will be no match at all for a western (or it seems in this case, a western-trained) army.
Remember this is an economy the size of Italy trying to run a superpower-sized operation. When you read about how many tanks and aircraft they have, you need to factor in that many/most are probably not serviceable at any one time. They just don’t have the money for it. Of course detailed information is hard to find, but you can be sure that anything from official sources is an enormous piece of propaganda and probably a long way from the truth. The whole thing is also totally riddled with corruption and waste on a level that totally outstrips anything you see in the west. Someone will, of course, tell me I’m reading and peddling western propaganda.
There is every chance that the invading force they’ve sent into Ukraine is quite simply the best they are capable of fielding.
Graham wrote:
For smaller operations they use Spetsnaz, which are probably the only troops they have that are anywhere near western capabilities. Even then, Spetsnaz are probably inferior to ordinary troops in western armies and the regular Russian troops – mostly conscripts – will be no match at all for a western (or it seems in this case, a western-trained) army.
No, Spetznas a well trained and equipped.
In Chechnya the problem were mostly with the commanding officers – really poor level and (allegedly) taking money from both sides right in the field…
(almost) No one really wants that war.
Snoopy wrote:
By sending in ill equipped/trained draftees?
If that’s what you have, that’s what you have to send.
Putin probably made the assumption that Ukranian people would not back their government, too – thinking it would be all over by Sunday. This is not Crimea, and I have to believe that it hasn’t gone unnoticed amongst Ukranians that their leader refused evacuation and said he would personally go down fighting.
