dublinpilot wrote:
I’ve often wondered if these are typed in by hand?
Y’reckon…
METAR EGSC 030650Z CALM 4000 BR SCT024 08/08 Q1016=
Today’s EGLL TAF:
EGLL 030459Z 0306/0412 15009KT 9999 SCT030 PROB30 TEMPO 0306/0308 8000 -RA TEMPO 0308/0312 6000 -RA BKN012 PROB30 TEMPO 0308/0312 4500 RADZ BKN008 PROB30 TEMPO 0312/0321 BKN014 PROB30 TEMPO 0321/0401 4000 +SHRA BKN014 BECMG 0401/0404 BKN007 TEMPO 0401/0409 6000 PROB30 TEMPO 0403/0408 4000 -DZ BKN004 BECMG 0407/0410 SCT015 BKN035
Is very long and generally pretty flyable, provided you stay out of the wet bits, which are all PROB30 and so not going to happen
That’s a crazy TAF. Do they really think they can forecast that accurately???
It certainly amused me when I saw it
Of course a TAF like that is like throwing darts in a dark room. Especially worked out 18hrs (actually more like 20hrs) ahead.
There should be a code for “it’s gonna rain at some point today, but we have no clue when”
I find it useful to rearrange them in a different order…. here is what probably went through the forecasters mind
Hm. Typical frontal system moving through.
TEMPO 0308/0312 6000 -RA BKN012 – I guess the warm front is moving through between 8 and 12, it’s not going to be too bad
PROB30 TEMPO 0308/0312 4500 RADZ BKN008 – maybe its a bit worse, though [note same period as TEMPO]
PROB30 TEMPO 0306/0308 8000 -RA – and maybe it starts raining a bit earlier, better put that in, too.
After that (1200), it will be fine again (SCT030),
PROB30 TEMPO 0312/0321 BKN014 – but maybe it is a bit more humid and then there will be lower cloud in the warm sector
Then the cold front arrives
BECMG 0401/0404 BKN007 TEMPO 0401/0409 6000 – some lower cloud later for a few hours, and band of low visibility as the front moves through
PROB30 TEMPO 0403/0408 4000 -DZ BKN004 – maybe it is a bit stronger when it moves through, with worse visibility and lower cloud
PROB30 TEMPO 0321/0401 4000 +SHRA BKN014 – maybe some early showers as it approaches, so I add that one, too
and after that, nice backside weather
BECMG 0407/0410 SCT015 BKN035
So maybe, this should should be
FRONT 0308/0312 6000 -RA BKN012 MAYBE 0306/0312 4500 RADZ BKN0800
PROB30 TEMPO 0312/0321 BKN014
PROB30 TEMPO 0321/0401 4000 +SHRA BKN014
FRONT 0401/0409 6000 BKN007 MAYBE 4000 -DX BKN004
:-D
of course, there could be an even shorter TAF
EGLL 030459Z 0306/0412 15009KT IFROK