Peter wrote:
Vadym Omelchenko, Ukraine’s ambassador to France, said on Friday: "As of today, numerous countries have officially confirmed their agreement to deliver 321 heavy tanks to Ukraine.
This os astounding! Where do the additional tanks come from? So far there were 31 Abrams, 80 Leopards and 14 Challengers, which adds up to 125.
Peter wrote:
Vadym Omelchenko, Ukraine’s ambassador to France, said on Friday: "As of today, numerous countries have officially confirmed their agreement to deliver 321 heavy tanks to Ukraine.
Wonder if they ever going to get there or if Russia won’t attack the transports with missiles before they can get to the theater.
I have a feeling that Russia will put their feet down within the next several weeks, latest on the anniversary of the begin of the war.
LeSving wrote:
Icelandic and global climate have more in common than ones thought
Is it more understandable to Norwegians…?
Mooney_Driver wrote:
Wonder if they ever going to get there or if Russia won’t attack the transports with missiles before they can get to the theater.
It would be an obvious target of choice, but vice-versa the air defense around the transports will also be excellent. I wonder if one can simply put an active Gepard onto a railway car as part of a train and let it shoot down any incoming missiles like a WW2 AA cannon defending the train against Stukas…?
Russia has no missiles which can hit a moving target.
Well, not ones which can loiter for ages until a train comes along.
MedEwok wrote:
It would be an obvious target of choice,
Depending on how it’s done, if they are imported in large batches it might be a target for a low level nuke. That way, you don’t have to get too close to the target and still have a massive destruction.
Or they can try to hit them before they get near Ukraine, but at the places of assembly before the transport gets off. Would send a massive signal to anyone who wishes to deliver heavy weapons: Try and we take them out.
@Mooney_Driver you’re really running with this idea that Russia has loads of military capability that they’re holding back, and that there is more they could do (apart from nukes) if the west ‘escalates’?
My bet is they have neither the intel nor the monitoring and strike capabilities for anything like this, and the first they’ll know of western tanks in theatre will be when they start blowing stuff up.
Your pessimism knows no bounds :-)
If Russia has mode to put into the fight, then they’d have done that already.
All they are left with is:
- Nuclear (But the west has already given them the consequences of that and China & India has already told Putin not to do that). That would be “game over” for Putin after the west’s response.
- Chemical / Biological – Aside from international push back – Going to kill as many of their own soldiers as Ukrainians. How do you explain to a Russia mother that their son was killed by Russia weapons? They probably wouldn’t make a huge battlefield impact anyway, and would make the area (which they are claiming is Russian ground) dangerous to occupy.
- More mobilisation – probably in plan. But causes more problems back home.
Really all Putin is left with is trying to drag out the war in the hope that the West or Ukraine get exhausted, or keep throwing more soldiers at it and take the risks back home.
I can’t see them having anything else that they can put into the fight. And if they do, it will be matched by the west now anyway.
Graham wrote:
you’re really running with this idea that Russia has loads of military capability that they’re holding back, and that there is more they could do (apart from nukes) if the west ‘escalates’?
No, their conventional capabilities are pretty much shot and it is clear that they know the West knows this, even if they don’t admit it to themselves. What they have left are missiles with various warheads up to tactical nukes. If they wish to make a point, then a massive missile attack onto the supply line (e.g. where tanks and other materials enter Ukraine) are one possibility or a tactical nuke onto the same.
Realistically, that is all they can do. Obviously they are trying to get more manpower and weapons on line, what I read Western defense communities are expecting another massive push in Donbass. I would not rule out that they drag Belarus and it’s troops into this as well and try another push for Kiew but with possible air and missile strikes, not as an occupation force but with the goal to destroy it. By now they must have realized, that had they used massive air power one year ago and levelled most of Kiew in the first moments of the war and taken out the government with a massive air and missile attack, the situation would be very different now.
dublinpilot wrote:
Really all Putin is left with is trying to drag out the war in the hope that the West or Ukraine get exhausted, or keep throwing more soldiers at it and take the risks back home.
That is exactly what he is doing. He hopes he can drag this out until the Western governments stop supporting Ukraine either due to change in governments (they are definitly hoping for a “regime change” in the US) or financial and logistical insustainability of the support. Apparently in the US there are concerns that they are running out of ammunition.
