I agree with @dublinpilot
If you want to make even the tiniest bit of difference, you need to do stuff which has people saying “But that’s outrageous, you can’t do that!”
Putin has factored in everything we’re doing and more, and he doesn’t care.
Word is that Germany is the chief obstacle to kicking Russia out of Swift, and obviously Germany is the reason Russian gas won’t be embargoed. Time for Germany to step up, I feel. If something isn’t done soon then Merkel – long seen as the premier statesperson in Europe – may soon come to be regarded as the one who set up the situation which prevented us doing anything meaningful to contain Russian aggression.
Peter wrote:
If one reads technical material about the history of nukes, one finds that these incidents are hugely overplayed in the media, in terms of the risk of a nuclear explosion.
What about this one?
Pity etiquette and distance doesn’t allow me to bestow a Glasgow kiss :)
Graham wrote:
Putin has factored in everything we’re doing and more, and he doesn’t care.
I don’t think the point of sanctions is making Putin “care”. The point is to make others care. An autocrat can only hold on to power as long as he has at least tacit support by the government structure.
dublinpilot wrote:
But if he sees something that really does hurt him, he’ll take that into his calculations and decide what the best course of action is from there. I think he’s always calculating and cold.
Yes, but the things you’ve mentioned are not going to hurt HIM, that is only going to hurt people who has left Russia and still have relatives there. And no, they are not allowed (by the UK government) to bring those relatives into the UK, for example. So it is going to affect people with Russian background or those still in Russia and cannot leave for one reason or the other.
Disconnecting SWIFT – not going to affect him.
Not using hydrocarbons – not going to affect him either.
Partially because he is still trading with China etc.
Partially because he does not care about the country anymore. All of his cabinet have warned him against the war, but he still pushed through.
Airborne_Again wrote:
Graham wrote: Putin has factored in everything we’re doing and more, and he doesn’t care.I don’t think the point of sanctions is making Putin “care”. The point is to make others care. An autocrat can only hold on to power as long as he has at least tacit support by the government structure.
And the government structure now is ex-sepcial services and ex-military, for them it is normal to live in a conflict. Brings back good memories (Soviet Union) and nostalgia.
Iron curtain? They’d say yes.
Airborne_Again wrote:
I don’t think the point of sanctions is making Putin “care”. The point is to make others care. An autocrat can only hold on to power as long as he has at least tacit support by the government structure.
I know, I mean he doesn’t ‘care’ insofar as it won’t cause any of what holds him up to wobble.
Dictators are difficult to depose because everyone is terrified of what happens next. This is why some high-ranking general doesn’t just walk into the room and shoot him, and it was the same with Hitler.
LeSving wrote:
It works because someone believes (with 100% certainty) that someone else is willing to push the button. Yet everyone are 100% sure they themselves will never ever push the button (not fist anyway).
It worked under this premis. Right now, this has changed as Putin has clearly said he IS willing to push the button at anyone trying to interfere with his operations there. That is a clear ultimatum to NATO: Interfere in Ukraine and I WILL nuke you. And this may well go so far that he will actually nuke someone in order to make a clear message, mess with me and we will go all the way.
This changes the whole MAD philosophy which kept the Russians and NATO apart in the Cold War.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
Right now, this has changed as Putin has clearly said he IS willing to push the button at anyone trying to interfere with his operations there.
Saying it and it actually being the case are two entirely different things. He’s got you convinced, at least.
All nuclear-equipped nations will retaliate if nuclear weapons are used against them. What differs is who would be prepared to use them first, as a result of escalating conventional conflict. Putin plays the madman to make us think we can’t do anything at all, lest he push the button.
What complicates matters is that nuclear weapons are the only threat he has when it comes to NATO. His forces pose zero serious conventional threat to NATO forces. Look what’s happening now: Ukraine – hardly one of the world’s elite military outfits, is giving them a pretty tough time.
I believe clandestine NATO military activity is going on. US Blackhawk helicopters keep crossing into Ukraine and coming out again, so that’s almost certainly special forces being inserted. And those tankers at the border are refuelling something….. so despite his threat that we must not ‘interfere’ we are almost certainly doing so. Not that he’d be able to find out for sure, other than things surprisingly blowing up in a way that the Russians find hard to attribute to Ukrainian forces.
Graham wrote:
If you want to make even the tiniest bit of difference, you need to do stuff which has people saying “But that’s outrageous, you can’t do that!”
Such as throwing nukes at them? Because that is what he sais he’ll do if anyone militarily interferes with his ops there. Together with the idea that he does not really care anymore what happens if he fails, that may well end up with the nuclear armageddon we have tried to prevent since the end of WW2.
Graham wrote:
Word is that Germany is the chief obstacle to kicking Russia out of Swift, and obviously Germany is the reason Russian gas won’t be embargoed. Time for Germany to step up, I feel. If something isn’t done soon then Merkel – long seen as the premier statesperson in Europe – may soon come to be regarded as the one who set up the situation which prevented us doing anything meaningful to contain Russian aggression.
Germany is dependent on Russias Gas and they need to pay for it. Take away Swift and they can not. That is why they are balking. I agree that does not work, they have to step up.
Primary step has to be that the fighting in Ukraine stops. By the looks of it, this will happen once he has ousted the government and most probably arrested the president and his cabinet. By the rate they are going, Kiev will fall today or tomorrow. It is what happens then which decides what NATO does about it. If they step over the borders of any NATO member country, we will find out if MAD really works, because then NATO has to answer.
