Cobalt wrote:
Initially, I did. I found it suspicious that those western leaders who needed better PR (in trouble or facing election) were playing it up while the Ukrainian leadership was a lot calmer, but I clearly was wrong.
You’re not alone in that. I too thought the west might be playing it up, when I saw the Ukrainian leadership playing down the risk of imminent invasion. I thought they are more likely to know the position on the ground. Obviously in the last few days though we could see that Russia clearly intended to invade, but up to a few days ago, I thought the west might be playing it up.
Keeping an aviation theme, it seems a Russian KA-52 attack helicopter has been downed in Ukraine.
There is a video on Twitter which the Guardian linked to, of people approaching the downed helicopter. It appeared to have been ‘forced down’ rather than a full-on crash and there appears to be a lot of small-arms damage to it.
Cobalt wrote:
Initially, I did. I found it suspicious that those western leaders who needed better PR (in trouble or facing election) were playing it up while the Ukrainian leadership was a lot calmer, but I clearly was wrong. Just that a politician makes good use of a potential crisis does not mean that there is no crisis…
It is interesting to see that the US appear to have really good intelligence out of their command structure. Maybe some people in there are not as trigger happy as their Commander in Chief.
Appears that there are attacks on all major cities and military infrastructure all over Ukraine. This is no longer about Donbass, it’s about the whole Ukraine now.
For the moment, it appears that there are no forces in place to target other places, so the one theory I heard of one of the military talking heads that the next step would be to impose “union contracts” to some of the GUS countries as an offer they can’t refuse unless they wish to suffer the same fate. Attacking NATO member states appears to be a red line, at least for now. However, that estimation might be as wrong as those we voiced here last week, seeing some statements out of Moscow today which were talking of war in all of Europe in case they would not reach their goal to “demilitarize” Ukraine.
arj1 wrote:
What is next? I just hope it is not Moldova..
In theory forces out of Krimea which are pushing for Odessa now might simply continue Southwest and get Moldovia while they are at it. Entering Romania or Bulgaria however would mean compulsory NATO defence action by treaty. The same goes for the Baltic states.
Recorded from BBC’s Today programme on Radio 4, Tuesday evening – Jonathan Powell (Blair’s former chief of staff, someone who has met Putin on several occasions) on Putin. Briefly, he thinks that Putin is no longer acting rationally, and the rot has set in that it does to all leaders who are in power for too many years.
https://www.alioth.net/tmp/powell-on-putin.mp3
An irrational dictator with nuclear weapons is not something I feel comfortable with being on the same planet as I am, to be honest.
alioth wrote:
Briefly, he thinks that Putin is no longer acting rationally
Yes, that is the concern…
When it comes to the question of acting rationally / irrationally and the potential benefits of making people think you’re acting irrationally, the radio play The Letter of Last Resort and the TV serial The Game are quite informative.
Giving an impression of irrationality is an excellent way to augment a nuclear deterrent. What he wants us to think is that we can’t even consider intervening in Ukraine because he’s crazy and would push the button…..
At some point in the not-too-distant future he is going to head to Ukraine for a photo opp – he cannot resist posing on top of a tank. Even without NATO forces becoming involved in the wider conflict, a precision strike to eliminate him might be an option.
Graham wrote:
a precision strike to eliminate him might be an option.
Unfortunately, all of Putin’s successors are probably just as bad.
alioth wrote:
Unfortunately, all of Putin’s successors are probably just as bad.
Probably, but they’d probably forget about the war while they fought over power. Nice opportunity for Ukraine to kick them out.
Unpredictable and well armed is indeed an effective foreign affairs deterrent. The predictability of the current NATO alliance is exactly why Ukraine is in this mess.
That said, you can be sure that precision strikes are on the mind of those who have the tools to do it.
Graham wrote:
Giving an impression of irrationality is an excellent way to augment a nuclear deterrent. What he wants us to think is that we can’t even consider intervening in Ukraine because he’s crazy and would push the button…..
That is pretty much what he said this morning. “Whoever will stand in our way, we will respond immediately and with unbelievable consequences”. The latter can only mean nukes. In other words, whoever puts troops into Ukraine or hinders his movements will be nuked.
At the current time I would no longer exclude him taking this step and quite possibly using WMDs against anyone who tries to stop them by force. Whether this is calculated or unhinged won’t matter much in that case, as the response will be clear too.
