Peter wrote:
Sadly, as this thread shows in places, and as I know from elsewhere, quite a lot of Europe would have preferred Ukraine sacrificed on the altar of cheap[er] gas, to use an old idiom.
That is unfortunately true. Quite a lot of prominent political figures or even non-political VIPs are on record for similar thinking here in Germany as well as other European countries, which I find despiccable.
Right now Germany is managing well with zero Russian gas, and will continue to do so in the future, though this requires some sacrifices.
Do you think Germany will manage industrially?
That is the key thing in Germany – the manufacturing sector.
One can insulate houses, etc, but most industrial processes that use energy are more difficult.
which I find despiccable.
Indeed, but a bigger problem is the future if Putin got away with this, which makes me wonder what these people are smoking. They are presumably not stupid. Stupid people can believe anything and one can explain it.
Peter wrote:
Do you think Germany will manage industrially?That is the key thing in Germany – the manufacturing sector.
I am not sure at this point. We as the general public only now fully realize how large parts of the manufacturing sector seem to have relied on an eternal flow of ridiculously cheap Russian gas (industry pays prices several times less than private customers per kWh). I’m fairly certain some sectors of industry will lose capacity and some of that loss will be permanent.
Both the government and industry leaders will need to be pragmatic, creative and flexible to find solutions to this dilemma, which – frankly – are not the qualities we Germans are particularly famous for.
I do however see a way this crisis could be a chance to improve Germany and make it ready for the future. Our country tends to be dramatically overrated abroad in it’s image of a “modern” country. It is actually not modern at all, it is by and large a 20th century country in the 21st century, though arguably one that has perfected the model of a 20th century industrialised country like no other. We’re very good at manufacturing cars, industrial machinery, chemicals, optics and some military hardware like firearms or U-Boats, but are severly lagging behind at 21st century tech like IT, solar panels, genetic engineering etc.
We will only manage to retain an industrial economy if we give up some of those “classic” engineering capacity in favour of modern one AND supplant our 20th century energy infrastructure of gas and coal with a 21st century one based on wind power, solar power and nuclear energy (wind power is actually looking decent here but the grid is not up to the task of transporting what we generate in the North to the consumers in the South, mainly due to NIMBYs)
And the last one is the big elephant in the room because are about to phase nuclear out and there is still STRONG public support of doing so, only slightly weakened by the current events.
In the long term, natural gas in a lot of industrial processes can be replaced by hydrogen. But where do you get the hydrogen from? The cheapest way is, again, to get it from natural gas, but that is self-defeating for obvious reasons. So you need to make it through electrolysis,which is ineffiient and needs lots and lots of excess electricity. And I just don’t see where to get THAT from except through nuclear power. Ideally through nuclear fusion, but that’s is unfortunately still not a realistic prospect for decades, baring a significant breakthrough.
So right now, Germany is set to decline industrially for mainly reasons of insufficient political will to overcome the rampant NIMBYs and ideological barriers present in our ever more aging and more risk averse society.
MedEwok wrote:
We as the general public only now fully realize how large parts of the manufacturing sector seem to have relied on an eternal flow of ridiculously cheap Russian gas (industry pays prices several times less than private customers per kWh). I’m fairly certain some sectors of industry will lose capacity and some of that loss will be permanent.
Well, perhaps not. Interesting story in Der Spiegel (in German) today – here
Google translation:
Gas: 90 percent of gas consumption is consumed by 300 products
Calculation of economists
300 products gobble up 90 percent of gas consumption
German industry apparently uses huge amounts of gas to manufacture a few products. However, according to experts, these could also be procured abroad without major losses in prosperity.
The energy crisis triggered by Russia is fueling concerns in Germany that the country could lose large parts of the industrial landscape, from which it has benefited so much in recent decades. However, according to economists at the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research in Halle (IWH), such fears are clearly exaggerated.
According to the study, it is above all a small minority of products that cause a large part of the gas consumption of German industry during production – and which could easily be procured abroad.
The manufacture of the 300 products with the highest gas consumption causes almost 90 percent of the total gas consumption of German industry, the economists of the IWH come to this conclusion. For the first time, the experts determined the gas consumption in the manufacture of individual products in Germany.
Only minor effects on the economy as a whole
Your analysis was created as part of the work on the annual report of the German Council of Economic Experts for the assessment of overall economic development. The so-called economic wise men presented their report on Wednesday.
The study estimates the expected effects of a drastic increase in gas prices on German industry. If the costs for industrial customers in Germany quadrupled, the average manufacturing costs for all 300 products examined would increase by twelve cents per euro of sales. To put it simply: a fourfold increase in the price of gas would require price increases of twelve percent. However, many of the 300 products affected could then no longer be manufactured competitively in Germany. The chemical industry would be particularly affected.
At the start of this video (it is all over the place but I could not find an isolated copy quickly) is the most cringeworthy imaginable comedy between two Russian generals. It is impossible to imagine the level of stupidity and brainwashing of the intended audience.
Up to about 4:50.
This is interesting too
I measured 140nm (?) and it is probably enough to reach that bridge.
172driver wrote:
Well, perhaps not. Interesting story in Der Spiegel (in German) today – hereGoogle translation:
Gas: 90 percent of gas consumption is consumed by 300 products
I’s difficult assess whether or not it would be reasonable for Germany to import when they don’t say anything about what those products are.
Peter wrote:
The best estimate for de-mining is 10 years and some say 100 although not many will be viable at 100 years.
Seeing that there are still areas in Croatia and other parts of the former Yugoslavia which are no-go lands decades after the war due to mines, I would not be surprised if the more conservative estimates are true.
MedEwok wrote:
In the long term, natural gas in a lot of industrial processes can be replaced by hydrogen. But where do you get the hydrogen from? The cheapest way is, again, to get it from natural gas, but that is self-defeating for obvious reasons. So you need to make it through electrolysis,which is ineffiient and needs lots and lots of excess electricity. And I just don’t see where to get THAT from except through nuclear power.
I read some piece about this recently, particularly in the context with hydrogen cars. I recently had the chance to test drive one of those (Toyota Mirai) which is for sale at a discount here as there are (yet) no takers at all. IMHO this is a much nicer way to drive electrically than using ton heavy batteries. If I had the cash (which is going into paying the left over for my plane repair) I’d have bought it immediately. True, there are not that many fuel stations yet (there is one reasonably close to me but one still has to plan one’s driving) but with a 650 km range and a refuelling which takes only a minute or so, it sure looks great.
Now, one beef with solar and wind energy is storage. So one idea I’ve seen is to feed excess electricity during night time into hydrogen production, as hydrogen is one way of storing energy out of electricity. Sure there are going to be issues with this, but in the end, it may well turn into solutions which are a mix of all this.
Seeing that there are still areas in Croatia
Currently still some 170 square kilometers that have to be checked and to be confirmed mine-free after 27 years of intensive work. The situation in Bosnia is much worse.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
Seeing that there are still areas in Croatia and other parts of the former Yugoslavia which are no-go lands decades after the war due to mines, I would not be surprised if the more conservative estimates are true.
Indeed. In Germany construction workers still stumble upon bombs from the allied bombing of WWII, and those bombs are easier to find and less treacherous than landmines. And they were dropped at least 77 years ago.
