Just saw an interesting analysis of Russia blowing up that dam. It will render useless a key canal feeding water to Crimea.
Yes that comment has been around for a few days now.
I heard one interesting comment from a journalist earlier today. It was his suggestion that Russia does not want to blow up the bridge. Instead he thought that they might be mining it as a method to stop Ukraine shelling the area to disable the bridge element. It was his suggestion that the Russians want to be able to use the bridge on top of the dam to evacuate their personnel and equipment but were concerned that the Ukrainians would attempt to damage the bridge element (but not break the dam) to stop a Russian retreat. There are few other working bridges in the area as most have been destroyed by ukraine now.
But by packing it full of explosives it makes it impossible for Ukraine to shell the area without destroying the dam.
It was an interesting comment that would logically explain the actions of both sides.
Ukraine blowing it up makes no sense. Russia cutting off most of Crimeas fresh water supply makes no sense either. (Though their military could well do it if they think it makes military sense even if it didn’t make long term Crimea sense.)
There is still one bridge in operation, which Russia “repaired” and while Ukraine could blow it up in 5 mins with HIMARS they have clearly chosen not to.
They want Russia to withdraw from NW of the river, so they can recover that area without having to lose soldiers fighting for it. Whereas if they blew that bridge (and maybe also damaged the road which goes over the dam) the Russians trapped there would have no choice but to fight to the last man.
Reportedly Ukraine is losing soldiers 1:6.5 versus Russia, but Ukraine doesn’t like to lose 10k men whereas Russia doesn’t care at all about losing 65k.
On the Russan “evacuation” topic:
===
Just seen a great drone video of Russian soldiers stealing a washing machine. It must have been a Miele because two of them struggled to carry it 
I could not help taking the historical/cultural perspective: American drone videos showing the Taliban “activities with sheep”, and Ukrainian drone videos showing Russians stealing washing machines. Sums up the 3rd World pretty well.
A very good article from Reuters about partially-destroyed documents and a diary found in an abandoned Russian command post.
The invaders had brought with them old Soviet maps of Ukraine
Post-invasion occupation and policing was done by separatist forces, from e.g. Luhansk, who were considerably less paid and equipped than their Russian counterparts
Also mention of torture chambers (wikipedia)
It’s indeed amazing how primitive Russia is. The one functioning part seems to be the Wagner mercenary army, which is currently making progress in one area, after burning down the battlefield with thermobaric bombs so there was nothing left.
Yesterday’s numbers are the highest ever – 950 Russians claimed. And these numbers have in the past turned out to be supported from Russia. This is double the normal number so I wonder what’s happened.
I find those numbers hard to believe. 2672 main battle tanks? Do they even have that many operational tanks? Perhaps, I don’t know, but it’s hard to believe.
I think it’s also interesting some other stuff happening. Germany is obviously very dependent on oil and gas from Norway ATM. They now have 4 frigates assisting the Norwegian Navy and Air Force in patrolling oil installations and pipe lines in the North Sea One British frigate has been there for some time, patrolling the gas lines to the UK. There are also one or two Russian “research vessels” popping by
I find those numbers hard to believe. 2672 main battle tanks? Do they even have that many operational tanks? Perhaps, I don’t know, but it’s hard to believe.
The vehicle numbers are real. Somebody, a while ago, went through a huge number of social media posted pics of blown up stuff, geolocated them, and added them up. They did match the Ukrainian claims fairly closely. You can find the site with google.
Russia has/had loads of tanks. 10k+ I think. Standard Cold War doctrine – roll them into W Germany. Recently, most were in long term storage though, with stuff like IR vision having been stolen. W Europe never had anywhere near that many tanks.
What is open to argument are the numbers for dead Russian soldiers. However, recently a Russian govt document came out detailing compensation payments to families and it had numbers like (IIRC) 8000/month which was about right. Obviously Ukraine can’t know exactly because they recover only a proportion and Russia recovers the rest (lately Russia has just left many there for animals to eat) so they use a formula like 3 per moving tank, 5 per APC or whatever, etc. And most drone actions are visible enough.
Interestingly, Ukraine has not yet been caught doing some big lie (they probably realise it would not do them any good) whereas Russia emits mostly lies (they don’t care what anybody thinks of them)
Germany is obviously very dependent on oil and gas from Norway ATM. They now have 4 frigates assisting the Norwegian Navy and Air Force in patrolling oil installations and pipe lines in the North Sea
I bet they are watching the pipework under the sea as well 
A main battle tank weighs about 50 tons. That’s about 133 600 tons of steel Scrap metal price of steel is perhaps around €200 per ton. The value of that scrap is about 27 million €. Collecting that would be a lucrative business for someone with big trucks
It seems that the Iranian drones which Russia is using in the Ukraine are mostly powered by Rotax 912 engines. It also seems that most of these have been stolen, a large proportion of them from UK aircraft. UK police are looking into it.
Shot down drones have been found labelled in such a way that they could only have been made by Rotax and can not be ones made under licence in China.
Rotax claim they are not selling to Iran because of the embargo and besides which the serial numbers match to aircraft.
130 engines stolen! Previous thread. The latest belief is that they didn’t go into go-karts but instead got sold into the “low profile” parts of the UL or homebuilding community. Some shipments were tracked to Italy, which has a big UL scene, but that doesn’t mean the engines stopped there.
Peter wrote:
I bet they are watching the pipework under the sea as well
I think those Navy vessels have one or two active/passive sonar sensors to detect just about every little fish in the ocean The thing is, Russia is sending those “research” vessels along the coast (in international waters). There is only one reason they do this, and that is to create FUD. High ranking officers keep explaining this all the time. People do listen, but do they actually believe it? No! They keep seeing Russian drones, Russian warships/submarines and Russian this or that. The Russian FUD making is working. The only way to answer is to send the military patrolling. The more the marrier. All the refineries and shore terminals are now guarded by the military. All the off shore installations are guarded by the Navy and Air Force. Is it really warranted? probably not from a military point of view. However, it is indeed warranted to stop the Russian FUD taking hold in the public imagination.
