esteban wrote:
We see the polarization everywhere in the modern world, ‘us’ vs ‘them’, whether it is democrats vs republicans, vaxers vs antivaxers, christian conservatives vs abortion/LGBT… rights, West vs Russia/China, … where the other side is viewed as evil/dumb/irrational and there is not even a try to seek a common ground, understand their position and see how to narrow the growing gap.
This is VERY true and something which has been bothering me massively in the last several years.
Democracy can only work if there is some sort of common ground. If you identify with the society or country you live in and, while being passionate about issues, still give the other side the benefit of acknowledging that there is the common ground of being human, citizens of a country or whatever. The fact that common ground is not even sought and opponents are vilified with a clear intent of escalation is always a very dangerous development.
I would not be surprised if it turns out one day that the immense polarization that we are seeing on every aspect of life nowadays, particularly in the West, would encourage someone like Putin to do what he is doing, because to him it must look like that we are at each other’s throat here anyway so we would not care, as we are too busy tearing ourselfs up.
My observation in recent years really goes in the direction that while there always has been spirited discussion about politics and daily life matters, while there always have been “sides” in politics, conversation on a civil level is almost impossible these days. People actually come to blows over stuff like Covid or Climate change, the US parties appear to totally disregard the obvious common ground that they are all Americans but instead see each other as enemies, so is anyone surprised that countries who see this failure of societies will exploit them? We had Russia first going to war, we are seeing Serbia (with Russian backing) thinking of doing a similar thing in Kosovo, we see the Chinese gearing up to retake Taiwan, are all of these things coincidental? Or just a logical consequence of the current obvious growing discord and weakening of the Western societies?
I wonder what the recent rethorics of Lavrov are trying to convey. Statements like “The USA is trying to assasinate Putin” like Lavrov said recently, could be an attempt to prepare the ground for an internal strike followed by a take over of the Kremlin by even more radical people and putting the blame on the US. Particularly the utterings of Medvedev are worrisome.
There certainly is no indication of Russia backing down, rather they will now focus onto destroying as much as they can in Ukraine, in addition to electricity and water, they will target transportation systems like railways and whatever they can.
Guys, if you want this thread here, please keep it roughly in the topic, and avoid rants about unrelated stuff like American politics (which are 100% a matter of opinion anyway).
Peter wrote:
To some extent one would expect him to do some retrospective self-justification (all former leaders do that) but it is an interesting commentary on recent history, and not only on France.
It’s interesting what he say about how this will end.
Negotiations are always the last step to conclude a conflict.
They should not result in a simple ceasefire but offer a lasting and guaranteed solution for Ukraine.
This is why the Minsk agreements can be resurrected to establish a legal framework already accepted by all parties.
Volodymyr Zelensky’s unifying role also plays an important factor.
His ability to appeal to the whole world and mobilize the Ukrainian nation will be central to the outcome of the war and the respect of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, without forgetting the question of Crimea, which, at one time or another, will return to be part of the negotiations.
From Stoltenberg a few days ago:
He [Stoltenberg] added that most wars end with peace talks, but “what happens at the negotiating table is inextricably linked with what happens on the battlefield,” thus, Western countries should continue supporting Ukraine [militarily].
Different roles of course, but peace negotiations with a man that doesn’t understand peace at all, is indeed IMO 100% decided on what happens on the battle field. Ukraine simply has to win for this to end well.
Interesting tool from Der Spiegel showing German gas consumption and storage levels, a key topic currently as energy exports are the only direct leverage Russia has with regards to Western Europe in this war:
Nearing the New Year, our gas storage levels are still at 89% full. The warm weather is helping, as temperatures around 16°C are forecasted for New Year’s Eve in the North German plain. Only a cold spell in early December increased consumption above the 2018 to 2021 average, as seen on the graphs linked. Otherwise, consumption remains well below that average due to conscious saving efforts + warm weather.
Ukraine simply has to win for this to end well.
Yes; that seems to be a pre-requisite for any diplomatic settlement which isn’t completely ridiculous.
our gas storage levels are still at 89% full. The warm weather is helping
You’ve got to get lucky sometime in life 
Was German dependence on Russian gas always exaggerated, or is it that luck and some quick infrastructure building saved the day?
kwlf wrote:
Was German dependence on Russian gas always exaggerated, or is it that luck and some quick infrastructure building saved the day?
A bit of both, I guess. Germany imported slightly above 50% of its natural gas consumption from Russia a year ago. That’s not exaggerated.
Imports from other countries, such as Norway and the Netherlands, were cranked up to the max soon after the Invasion began, but Russian gas still makes up a sizeable part of the 2022 consumption, as Putin didn’t really stop selling us the stuff until summer, when it became apparent that his original plan wasn’t going to work.
Infrastructure building commenced fairly fast for Germany, with one of six planned LNG terminals already operational now (there were 0 before the war, as the Merkel government never deemed that necessary). But all of the stored gas so far is from pipelines to other countries, although some of it arrived there (mainly Belgium and the Netherlands) via their LNG terminals.
So our own LNG terminals will play a major role next year, when there will be no Russian gas available to refill the gas storages. But until today, all came down to frantic buying of gas on the world market, reduced consumption and warm weather, the latter two obviously heavily intertwined.
The price of course was ridiculous gas prices as high as 350€ / MWh in the summer, which have only recently fallen to around 100 €/MWh, still well above the prewar level of around 30€/MWh.
MedEwok wrote:
So our own LNG terminals will play a major role next year, when there will be no Russian gas available to refill the gas storages
That’s a pretty false perception of what is going on. Since the war, Russia has increased the export of LNG to EU by 50%. France sends Russian LNG directly to Germany. In September alone, EU imported Russian LNG for 10 billion €. Since the war started Russia has sold LNG to EU for 50 billion €, and the export to EU is increasing by each day. LNG to EU finances a large part of the Russian campaign.
LNG is not part of the embargo, a carefully designed system by EU so they can say they are not dependent on Russia for gas. Technically 100% correct, because LNG is not the same as natural gas, even though the end use is exactly the same. Speaking with two tongues is one of EUs specialties it seems.
Thanks. That’s interesting.
