Peter wrote:
The Javelin and NLAW one hears less of nowadays, and I suspect the Ukrainians are not getting close enough to use these.
Indeed. It’s a matter of terrain. In Northern Ukraine, with swamps, forests and cities, the terrain was suitable for ambushes with shoulder-launched ATGMs.
In the vast plains of Southeastern Ukraine, there is very little concealment or cover. Artillery is king there, and maneuver warfare (using tanks and ground attack aircraft) is the only way to make fast advances. At the moment, neither side has those at their disposal in sufficient numbers.
The western reluctance to supply Ukraine with modern MBTs is very hard to understand this way.
These numbers (from Ukraine military, for just yesterday) are about 10x higher in equipment than a few days ago. The number of Russians is also doubled.
Amazing that Russia can sustain this rate of losses.
The western reluctance to supply Ukraine with modern MBTs is very hard to understand this way.
They are capturing more than they are getting from the West…
I can’t read this from the UK but it may be relevant.
Peter wrote:
I can’t read this from the UK but it may be relevant.
Apparently the government of Chancellor Scholz is reluctant to provide Ukraine with even a handful of our ATF Dingo protected vehicles, despite the Bundeswehr having 500 of them. Supposedly they need all of them for training.
Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany is (understandably) furious at this, saying vehicles like this are urgently needed for the counter-offensive around Kherson.
Since the War began, the Scholz government has repeatedly dragged its feet over supplying Ukraine with useful equipment, also we did send tracked artillery, RPGs and lots of personal equipment.
Why do you think Scholz is doing this? It is often portrayed as the deal was approved but then he blocked it via a personal intervention.
Peter wrote:
Why do you think Scholz is doing this? It is often portrayed as the deal was approved but then he blocked it via a personal intervention.
Complex answer, I’m afraid.
By the time Scholz was elected candidate by the SPD (social democrates), nobody would have dreamt he’d ever get elected. Yet he ended up as chancelor, by a small margin, because the conservative candidate lost all his steam during election campaign. He does only slowly grow into the position and isn’t the leading, charismatic type. That’s number one.
Number two, he’s got to appease a lot of different streams in his party. Keep in mind there are a considerable number of people influencing the public opinion who either are outright pacifists (writing letters demanding ‘negotiations’ to magazines, haha), or who were born in the former GDR and still have warm feelings towards Russia from that time. They are a factor to be reckoned with and who influence on the political landscape. I am also pretty sure there are some who are afraid of ‘kompromat’ because of their past with Russia.
The third point is a technical one. Don’t mistake what the Ukraine SAYS as what’s really going on. Not everything the Ukraine says fully true. They try to manipulate the public opinion in order to move positions, which is what anyone here would do, too. Most of the Dingos, for example, are either in active service in the underequipped army (i.e. as training vehicles meaning the Bundeswehr can’t just donate them away) or special purpose vehicles (i.e. medevac or NBC defense) and are therefore simply not available or not suitable as transport vehicles.
It is very important to not believe everything that’s being posted on the internet. Especially when it comes to German weapons and other support to Ukraine.
Peter wrote:
Why do you think Scholz is doing this? It is often portrayed as the deal was approved but then he blocked it via a personal intervention.
@EuroFlyer gave a pretty comprehensive answer which I also get behind.
It’s a mixture of party pressure from the left-wing of his SPD, inability to provide substantial support simply because the German army is in such a bad state that it doesn’t have much of use to offer and fear that providing substantial support might let Russia regard us as enemy in this war (an argument I don’t really buy because l, quite frankly, they already see themselves fighting a proxy war against NATO).
Has the non-US West “Cut off its nose to spite its face” with its economic sanctions? To talk about capping the price of Russian oil but assuming Russia will still sell it to us seems optimistic
A bit unexpected, it seems, at least for many folks who were so eagerly screaming for Ukraine to give up, is that currently the Russians are fleeing by the thousands and Ukraine just picks up their equipment. Soon Ukraine might have more equipment than the Russians.
Yes it is quite amazing to watch.
I hope it carries on.
I think only the large Russian gas buyer(s) were really hoping for Ukraine to collapse. No other person (informed in 20th/21st century European history) would have been hoping for it, due to the long term security implications for Europe.
EuroFlyer wrote:
many folks who were so eagerly screaming for Ukraine to give up
People do in Germany?
