Airborne_Again wrote:
It has been said that the real purpose of the EU is to prevent wars between France and Germany. That has succeeded eminently.
It was certainly a consideration that the best way to prevent wars between major European nations was locking them together economically and, increasingly these days, politically. The practical implementation is that France makes the decisions and Germany pays the bills!
One can never say for sure whether the lack of a major European war since 1945 is because of this or coincidental.
Graham wrote:
It was certainly a consideration that the best way to prevent wars between major European nations was locking them together economically and, increasingly these days, politically.
Which, in a different way, was the idea with Russia as well when its economy was locked together with Europe with oil and gas bills which footed most of Russia’s bills. Until someone did not care about the economy when there is an imperium to rebuild.
Peter wrote:
And mutually assured destruction has prevented wars between atomic powers, since the 1950s.
Until someone did not care anymore and started a very high risk game of chicken. Maybe because he does not care if they blow him to cinders as long as he can take everyone else with him.
Graham wrote:
One can never say for sure whether the lack of a major European war since 1945 is because of this or coincidental.
Not for sure but I think it’s a high probability. Nevertheless there were agressions of the economic warfare type used several times even within. Maybe one reason there were no military confrontations had more to do with all of them being part of NATO as well, as nobody in it’s own right have the power to actually fight all of NATO. IMHO this is the one reason why Turkey have not made their go at recreating that empire a reality so far.
Peter wrote:
Germany was also prevented from substantially re-militarising, got a good economic start with the Marshall Plan, etc, following a realisation that the post-Versailles humiliation laid the roots for the rise of Hitler etc.
Given the calls for total humiliation and economic destruction of Russia, aren’t we on a path to repeat the history?
esteban wrote:
Given the calls for total humiliation and economic destruction of Russia, aren’t we on a path to repeat the history?
Depends on how the post war scenario (hopefully there is any) is handled. Versailles clearly showed how it is not done while the Marshall Plan did the opposite. Given that loads of people only are waiting to get their hands on Russian oil and gas and whatelsenot, it is more than likely that an economic revival will be rather quick once the war gets stopped and those responsible either removed or neutralized politically.
Any form of “peace” where Russia’s economy and people are left in shambles will amost certainly have the same consequence. Some people should remember Shirinowski or whatever that moron’s name was.
The difference is that Germany didn’t yet have Hitler (in power) whereas Russia already has a “Hitler” and a big crazy one too, and with support of (what appears) the great majority of the population.
So the effect of sanctions etc will be different.
Medvedev saying today that Russia’s plan is one “Soviet bloc” all the way from Vladivostok to Lisbon, is quite impressive 
Peter wrote:
The difference is that Germany didn’t yet have Hitler (in power) whereas Russia already has a “Hitler” and a big crazy one too, and with support of (what appears) the great majority of the population.So the effect of sanctions etc will be different.
Even if you think the things are bad, never underestimate the ways they can turn much worse.
Considering Russian realities and history, Putin is really not the worst that can come out of there (even Navalny has strong nationalistic roots).
Don’t hold your hope high for things changing in Russia anytime soon due to sanctions. Given that Europe is sending billion dollars a day for gas and oil (and has no realistic way to replace that in the short term) and the countries outside the west’s bubble continue to trade with Russia, hoping to utterly economically destroy Russia is a prime example of wishful thinking. Yes, it will cause hardships for ordinary people, no, it will not stop the war or totally economically destroy Russia and topple Putin. Furthermore, it is extra easy for Putin to blame any and all economic hardships (mostly due to corruption, cleptocracy and incompetence) on the western sanctions.
Similarly, one of the reasons why he has so high popular support is west’s hysteric reaction (things like boycotting Russian culture and sports, even things like russian dressing) that make it too easy for Putin to say that the west hates everything and anything Russian. Russians already have a history of fortress mentality, no big surprise there.
And of course, those nukes change the equations somewhat … so German/Japanese solution does not work.
To inject a bit of aerial content into this thread:
What are the potential consequences of flooding Ukraine with thousands of portable relatively high-tech anti-air missiles?
There are plenty of Chechens, nazis and plain old criminals who might take hold of some of them and distribute them (for some nice $$$) to a friendly terrorist or mafia boss…
Those police helicopters (and landing/taking-off airplanes) might not feel that safe anymore …
Why would Putin invade Ukraine if it wasn’t a forerunner to building and empire? He has form in this respect. Sooner or later the west would have had to get involved. Perhaps, sooner is better.If the Ukraniens can stop Putin and his cadre without NATO needing to put boots on the ground or planes in the air, so much the better.
Meanwhile, India is buying a small amount of oil at a discount, but I wouldn’t have thought there was much in the way of Russian military equipment available to them to buy at the moment. But keeping Russia on side is a must for them (or was) to stop Russia coming down on China’s side in their “disagreement”.
But Putin can’t be daft enough to believe that China will side with Russia for altruistic reasons. IMO China will want more in return for backing Russia economically and/or militarily than he will ever gain from attacking the West, even if he were to succeed.
Things have gone too far now, that one struggles to see a way out for Putin and his cadre.
But this is not for the West to decide. Sanctions, may only make things a bit uncomfortable in Russia. It might even make Putin supporters even more supportive of him but they are necessary to make it loud and clear to him that “he can go so far, but no further”. Maybe, he misread the support he was getting from Trump, the Tories, Marine Le Penn etc etc as support from those countries as a whole. Maybe he thought that the manifestation of this support was no action being taken over Crimea and he was left to do what he wanted, to some extent in Syria and Mali, not forgetting Chechnya and Georgia.
But for an ex head of Russian intelligence, it is difficult to understand how he could underestimate so badly how hard the people of a sovereign country will fight to protect their way of life.
What makes even less sense is that if Putin had ploughed the same amount of money into making friends in Ukraine as he has invading, Russia would more than likely had an ally for many years, whereas even if Putin manages to overthrow the Government of the Ukraine and install a puppet, there will be resentment bubbling under the surface for the foreseeable future. That future can only be a steady supply of body bags, filled with young Russian conscripts making their way back to Russian towns and villages for years to come. Ukraniens will have nothing lose.
This conflict is a case of friends in reality being forced to fight each other because a small group of politicians want more power and the benefits that brings. But isn’t that the root of all wars?
This conflict is a case of friends in reality being forced to fight each other because a small group of politicians want more power and the benefits that brings. But isn’t that the root of all wars?
That is European history for at least the last thousand years, probably more like three thousand. We are lucky enough to have lived through an extraordinary period of relative peace (not counting ex-Yugoslavia, Northern Ireland…). My limited reading of European history has just astounded me with how many senseless wars have been fought, almost constantly, with civilian populations being wiped out as armies sweep back and forth.
It’s hard to take the horror of what the Russians are doing in Ukraine, seeing it on a daily basis as people never have before. But the truth is it’s more typical than not. Very sad really.
Maybe, he misread the support he was getting from Trump, the Tories, Marine Le Penn etc etc as support from those countries as a whole
I would recommend broadening the information sources, because France (the govt) does exactly the same stuff as everybody else who comes up with some €€€ to lubricate the right people. And it is an official scheme, just like the UK one, and the many others.
It’s hard to take the horror of what the Russians are doing in Ukraine, seeing it on a daily basis as people never have before
Indeed. Never thought I would see this happen, almost in real time (if you get the right telegram feeds).
I thought this picture is one of the most telling
Note the trees stripped of branches.
Most of this is predictable, too:
