ivark wrote:
Unfortunately,the story from FT seems very beliveable
Unfortunately it is behind a paywall and therefore useless to most people.
Valentin wrote:
Apparently, Putin feels that NATO leaders are scared and hope to avoid interference. It means that his threats work and he can continue this strategy.
Clearly NATO wishes to avoid nuclear armageddon, which is what Putin has threatened in the case that NATO interferes. Which does not mean they are not there and watching very carefully what is going on. I don’t think those BUFF’s and all the other equipment flying day and night along the border of Ukraine and Belarus are there joyriding.
Insofar yes, his strategy of deterrence to NATO works for Ukraine, also because NATO per definition is a defensive force who can only act when NATO is attacked itself, which is not the case. But it is no question that if the nuclear threat did not exist, NATO would be in there.
You can call it WW3 if you wish, certainly it is in economic terms. By most military definitions however WW3 means unrestricted nuclear warfare, which in other words is the end of the world. Putin is in no position to fight a conventional war against NATO, this is pretty darn obvious from what is going on in Ukraine. So if he wishes to attack NATO, he has to go nuclear.
Hmm, every day something new and odd pops up. The 200th motorized infantry brigade from Russia is reported to have lost entire units. This brigade normally is situated only tens of kilometers from the Norwegian border at Kirkenes. Another unit that has suffered huge losses is the 61. marine infantry regiment. The commander Dimitrij Safronov is also killed. This is the Petschenga brigade, normally stationed at Sputnik, only 10 km from the border to Norway. Lots of this equipment is now taken by Ukraine. If they are able to use this equipment for anything useful is another question though.
These are allegedly top units, which of course raise lots of questions. Are they simply in very bad shape, or have they been misled and lied to on a more strategic level? If so, then Putin and his men certainly are at a place very far from the reality. Maybe a bit of both, plus the Ukrainians are really biting back.
LeSving wrote:
These are allegedly top units, which of course raise lots of questions. Are they simply in very bad shape, or have they been misled and lied to on a more strategic level? If so, then Putin and his men certainly are at a place very far from the reality. Maybe a bit of both, plus the Ukrainians are really biting back.
Allegedly he was told that the Ukraine is ready to accept him with open arms, just waiting for him.
That, allegedly, was said by a person in his inner circle that has, well, processed the budget of around $5B, just for this, and other people around him were saying similar things (again, allegedly, after some substantial amounts changed hands).
He was sure that:
1. He is a very welcome guest over there and
2. The army is in great shape and
3. The opposing army is no shape to fight and
4. Security analysts presented very positive scenarios (allegedly, after being instructed by their COs not to portray the potential outcomes with such a gloom).
He was expecting another Crimea and found another Afghanistan from a military point of view. Which was kind of obvious to almost everyone.
@LFHNflightstudent I love your writing style, Xi and his boner for Taiwan! You’re also an astute observer of global politics. Keep it coming…
Ukraine is costing them about 100x more that Afghanistan was, per week.
Already Russia has reportedly lost enough hardware to equip the whole of the German army. What that means I am not sure; probably the “pre Ukraine war” German army 
And with the weapons being used, if you hit a military vehicle, 0 survivors.
With the Russians now slowly encircling Kyiv, the obvious point is that the Ukrainians must go out and engage them where they are.
They can’t sit tight and expect the Russians to come to them – if they do the Russians will just sit back and shell them until there’s no Kyiv left.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
Unfortunately it is behind a paywall and therefore useless to most people.
weird-did you try to open it? I certainly don’t have a subscription,but i think they opened some content when the war started..
As posted further back, the FT has some free content on this war but probably not other articles.
One more impact for Russian aviation. Game-on… https://www.cityam.com/china-refuses-to-send-plane-parts-to-russia
This will massively impact Russia’s capability to keep their planes airworthy… Wouldn’t want to be an airplane leasing company with exposure to Russia ;-)
Fact is, we are already at war with Russia, and it is only a matter of time until Putin will start to attack either a baltic state, or Poland, or Finland, concocting a lie that justifies it. There is no other way out for him now. In his thinking Nato and countries who deliver weapons to Ukraine and who sanction Russia have already entered war. So, brace for impact.
By the way, Instagram will be shut off in Russia and this is the result:
https://twitter.com/ignis_fatum/status/1502418684010242055?s=21
