gallois wrote:
From the UK Government figures it work out that so far it has cost £4000 per person contacted by track and trace. More if you count those that did not self isolate when asked to do so.
From the posts on here it would appear that the British are far more incensed by the way that Brussels has handled the vaccine procurement than the people of the EU.
For sure track and trace was a monumental waste of money and the govt should be held to account for that, but they probably will not be. The primary reason for failure seemed to be that the very idea (in this country at least) was fundamentally flawed – no-one wanted to be tracked and traced. I certainly did not download the app, and not many people I know did.
Incensed? No. Brits might have been irritated when Ursula et al began slagging off AZ (and by thinly-veiled association the UK – even very recently the UK has been inaccurately accused of having a vaccine export ban) to try and deflect from their failings, but overall the feeling here is just 1) sorrow for those EU citizens so poorly served by the EC in this regard, and 2) relief that we elected to do it differently.
UK vaccination rates are lower now than they were in Jan and Feb. We are not managing more than about 350k jabs per day, and an increasing proportion of those are now second jabs. Supply is obviously the issue but the government will not talk explicitly about that, though we are now in period where both Pfizer and AZ said there were likely to be reduced deliveries due to work to increase production capacity.
There is a small EU uptick recently. They are now running at about 5 jabs per 100 head of population per month, as opposed to a steady 4 since they started. The UK has dropped down to 15, from a Jab/Feb rate of 16-17, and this will drop further to perhaps <10 if the rate of the last 2 weeks carries on. All the data is here.
Graham wrote:
then you get team exercises where you are given scenarios and you must establish what matters to the other team. It can be fun and interesting to figure it out.
@Graham hence populating negotiations with non points which are there as camouflage, and have to be bargained away millimeter by millimeter :) New York law firms are able to extract maximum anguish (and billing hours) with this technique.
Both Norway and Denmark has put AZ on hold due to possible deaths by people having got the vaccine.
—> in the UK at the moment wrt impact of COVID measures … Less than half the expected number of operations were done, pushing the waiting list to a record-high of 4.6m.
More than 300,000 of those have been waiting more than a year for treatment – compared to 1,600 before the pandemic began.
Surgeons described it as a dire situation which would take a long time to turnaround.
RobertL18C wrote:
@Silvaire there was a time when the great British public was secure in the true knowledge that ‘cock up trumps conspiracy’ :)I always thought it an amusing historical/linguistic quirk that this common sense attribute might be upturned by the 45th President of the great USA.
I don’t like Trump’s personality and making people hate you is rarely a good idea, even if you are right. On the other hand almost everything in terms of tangible actions that he did in relation to CV was exactly right IMHO, including attempting to reverse his border closings when the time was right, with the understanding that leaving them as part of his legacy would be oh so convenient for the incoming administration, led as it is by somebody who is now (also IMHO) proving to be mentally deficient, some kind of cognition issue.
Cash payments to everybody below some income threshold, regardless of need, were and are now a notable exception to the Federal Government doing things right in relation to CV, and are a blatant attempt to purchase votes.
In the US, state governments actions and motivations have been more analogous to those of European nations, and in many cases were equally wrong power grabs. The advantage in the US is that border controls between states aren’t going to happen, and so we’ve seen hundreds of thousands of taxpayers voting with their feet and moving. That does not go unnoticed.
BTW, I learned recently that the border US/Mexico border crossing is completely open for legal US residents, no testing etc required, as long as you return to the US on the ground. Given that there’s a foot bridge between the US and the terminal of at least one well served Mexican commercial airport, that’s not a major issue. Might be time for a trip to Cabo San Lucas 
LeSving wrote:
Both Norway and Denmark has put AZ on hold due to possible deaths by people having got the vaccine.
Which is the height of idiocy, and exemplifies the inability of bureaucrats to accept a small risk of action to mitigate a much larger risk of inaction.
So a few people died (and of course I wish they hadn’t), but they are a few of the probably 10 million which have received the AZ vaccine. Current infection rates run at around 10 per 100k per day, at 1% lethality rate that translates to 1 death per million per day; vaccinating 10 million people saves in the very short term 10 people per day, and in the long term arguably a million.
There has to be more to this, because nobody with even a fake MBA can be ignorant of the double digit millions vacced with AZ in the UK, not accompanied by a spate of funeral company IPOs.
It is probably more of the same we saw earlier with Mr Macron slagging off AZ, for political convenience because they could not get much of it.
Terrible, really, but maybe tourism is not a huge thing in Norway and Denmark so they are happy to be locked down for all of 2021? I don’t really get this.
Cobalt wrote:
Which is the height of idiocy, and exemplifies the inability of bureaucrats to accept a small risk of action to mitigate a much larger risk of inaction.
Indeed. These countries have given, what, a few tens of thousands of these shots and they think they are discovering something new? If so then they show a fundamental misunderstanding of statistics. At least 10m have been given in the UK alone, with nothing serious reported so far.
No evidence of causality whatsoever, but it’s another excellent demand-management opportunity.
Statistically, given the numbers being vaccinated, at least a few people are going to die shortly after vaccination even though the vaccination is not in any way linked to their death. I’m sure people have died after any of the brands administered. There does seem to be a (dis)organised smear campaign against AZ. I wonder if the J&J vaccine (the other major one that’s sold on a not-for-profit basis) will be subjected to a similar FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) campaign.
Also we don’t ban paracetemol or other OTC drugs and people have most assuredly died after taking them. Nor do we ban cars or planes which likely have a fatal usage rate much higher than any of the COVID vaccines.
Anyway, if Denmark and Norway don’t want the vaccines, more left over for the rest of us.
Cobalt wrote:
at 1% lethality rate that translates to 1 death per million per day; vaccinating 10 million people saves in the very short term 10 people per day, and in the long term arguably a million.
The tables below are from the EU itself as reported by each country.
Hungary had a mean death rate in 2019, which was before COVID and the numbers are free from the Pandemic of COVID infections. That number is 2,486 deaths per week for the entire year of 2019. If you take 19 yrs from 2000 to 2019 you get an average mean death rate of 2,512 deaths per week over that period. 50,247/20=2,512So during the Pandemic when the tables show an increase in the death rate starting the 43 rd week (when the color starts to change indicating a deviation) in 2020 lasting into the 3nd week of Jan 2021
there was a total of 49,630 deaths during that 14 week period. Using our historical average mean of 2,512 × 14= 35,168 49,630 – 35,168= 14,462 So there was an increase of 14,462 deaths in that 14 week period.
So 14,462/ 9,660,351= .001497 or .15% rounded off.
Understanding that the 2,512/week number includes increases in deaths due to severe winters and Influenza epidemics during that time period. If you pick a year in which there were no anomalies listed as in year 2014 the 2,420 mean death rate you get 2,420×14=33,880 so 49,630-33,880=15,750
15,750/9,660,351= .00163 or .16%
Now that is comparing a very good year to the average mean we get a difference of .01% The converse is true if we take a year that had a high median death rate. But for the moment let’s take the most stable case scenario of .15% attributing it all to COVID and NOT with a combination of Influenza, increased Cardiac, increased Cancers due to delayed treatment and increased suicides. That is a far cry from the 5-10% death rate they predicted requiring the lockdowns throughout the world.""
That is Point number One.
But let’s analyze the fact that the first lockdown in Hungary occured in Mid March of 2020. There was no increase in the death rate as indicated by the solid green weeks. Actually for the entire spring and summer there were no increases. People were sheltering in place and using masks as well as social distancing during that period. So one would naturally assume that the measures taken did work and COVID was stopped from spreading.
Point Number 2
Then in July and August the country was opened up and people were allowed to go to restaurants, bars etc. as well as leave the country to places that did not wear masks or social distance.
Sept 1st borders closed, or at least made more difficult to cross. Tourism ceased even though there were no indications of any deviations as exhibited in the chart by the dark green color. Ok so the govt was anticipating because now everyone had a real good chance of having contracted the disease and as well as Students returning from infected Asia to resume their studies. All these people were coming back to Hungary at the end of August. Now COVID, I was told, has up to a two week incubation period. So one would think that the number of deaths would start to rise in late August and Sept. When people get COVID they expire within two weeks, if they are going to expire. We all heard stories that Gee, so and so got COVID. They were feeling fine and then a week later they were dead. The death rate didnt rise in August or Sept or most of October. On Nov 8th (already) saw the start of night curfew in addition, and restaurant business only take-out food permitted.
So with much sterner lockdowns and now mandated mask wearing with fines you would think there would be no spread, after all social distancing and masks work! Also the fact that places which spread the disease like restaurants, Bath Houses, and Bars which were all ordered closed earlier in the year. By opening up during July and August, you would think that if we did not have a rise in deaths August, Sept and most of Oct then the mask wearing and lock downs had worked. Well not quite, how can the spike that started to occur at the end of October be explained?
Now mind you, Hungary follows the politicized, corrupt, and corporate controlled US FDA in its use of drugs for treatment. That means that Hungary HAD no COVID therapeutic treatment because the FDA would not authorize drugs most of 2020. Those that have now been proven to be safe and effective, if taken early on in the infection but were banned from being used. Keep that in mind when you are looking at the death rate per week throughout most of 2020.
My next question, if the numbers are going down as evidenced by the January data to near normal levels why on earth is there a curfew and a total lockdown occurring March 8, 2021?
Lets see what the death rate will be in February. Of course let’s also not lose sight of the big picture. The lockdowns were to stop a disease that we were told had a death rate of 5-10% of the population. That was the Cambridge Model, I believe.
5% =483,017
10%=966,013.5
In reality .15%=14,462
By now the infamous herd immunity should have taken place so the spread should continue to decline however Hungary is such a crossroads of international vacation and travel that people coming from places without herd immunity might still account for slight elevation of numbers but probably below the detectable ranges with respect to our data collectors. Also With proper therapeutics less people should die. Now of course if the Vaccine causes more long term harm than good we might see elevated death rates due to the incomplete study of the new vaccine. Time will tell."
The number of years submitted by Germany is 5 complete years as opposed to some other countries with 20 complete years which skews the average normal death rate. So I have chosen to use 2016 and 2019 two years with no deviations from the norm.The average median for those two years is 17,722 deaths per week. So taking any increase deviation towards the increase as evidenced by a light green not solidly green, the expected deaths to be included in the count. That is 13 weeks totalling 298,342 deaths. Therefore 13 weeks x 17,722= 230,386 expected deaths. The population of Germany is 83,122,889 So 298,342-230,386= 67,956 excess deaths divided by 83,122,889= .00082 or .082% increased fatality or lethality of COVID since we are attributing every death above the median as evidenced by the color coding to be a COVID related. The Flu has disappeared altogether as a result of these calculations. Obviously Mask wearing and social distancing has eradicated the flu and bacterial and viral pneumonia outbreaks.
The only thing I can think of for the discrepancy in the numbers from Hungary which had a death rate of .15% and the Germans .082% is that the Hungarians did not give medication or treat the virus itself while the Germans might have; like HCQS or other medications. I know in Hungary the patients were on their own and told to only get treatment at the hospital when sick enough. Usually by then it was too late. What’s your opinion?
