The factors that may contribute to a reduction in Covid following population wide application are interesting (Israel). There is a view that 40% of the population is not enough, that the first to receive the vaccine were already substantially shielding any way so much less likely to be infected, and new variants may have increased the rate of infection. It is a reasonable explanation for why results will take time, and that the vaccine is no population wide quick fix.
Peter wrote:
As history has shown, once America gets moving, there ain’t nowt stopping it.96M done so far.
Alas, not quite. That’s doses administered, the number of people vaccinated (fully or partially) stands at 62.5M as of tonight CET. Current rate is just over 2M/day.
But do they get tested?
They do. 25% of new Israeli cases come from the community, despite the community being about 10%ish of the population.
Enforcement is also variable geometry, with a lot more fines imposed in say secular Tel Aviv than Bnei Brak….
Fuji_Abound wrote:
There is a view that 40% of the population is not enough
Of course it is not enough. The “herd immunity threshold” where R is 1 can be calculated as (1 – 1/R0), and with R0 around 3 or so you need 66%.
On the other hand, the virus making it into a cluster of unvaccinated people should not worry the vaccinated people much…
The high infectivity may affect the holiday plans.
Icelandic Review Online. 10/3.
“All Cases Traced to a Traveller
The four cases have all been traced to an individual who returned to Iceland from abroad on February 26. While they tested negative before departure and upon arrival to Iceland, they tested positive in a follow-up test after the mandatory five-day quarantine. The traveller appears to have infected a neighbour without direct contact through use of a common stairwell in their residential building.”
172driver wrote:
Alas, not quite. That’s doses administered, the number of people vaccinated (fully or partially) stands at 62.5M as of tonight CET. Current rate is just over 2M/day.
Given the increasing rate per day, I think that means maybe two months until everybody in the US over the age of 18 who wants the vaccination, has it.
“ CV19 kills around 1% of all those who catch it. ”
This is of course horrible inaccurate and exactly why this mess continues. I have posted data here before, the death rate of young (below 65j healthy people who catch COVID is below 0.1 . Yes old people die, thought there is the harvesting effect which needs to be taken into account And yes you have a chance of dying above 1 if you are over 85 but if you are young your chances of dying of Covid are close to zero. https://dc-covid.site.ined.fr/en/data/france/ Data here if you do care enough to do the math…
I agree with the above. The IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) is no higher than 0.3%. The problem with IFR’s is there are lots of people who are Asymptomatic which lowers the IFR. This is exactly why the whole mess continues. The cost to the Economy will only be seen when the magic money tree runs out and there is huge debt and misallocated resources, lost education etc. The economic issues will cause far more deaths over the next 5 years than the current death toll.
Cobalt wrote:
It’s not scientists who make these decisions; not even the physicians who simply report an incident. It is the bureaucratic/political machine that then makes mountains out of mole hills.
As for the political decisions that is exactly what it is, but I am referring to the press frenzies about things which get released, then countermanded over and over again. I know it is unrealistic to expect that these things get verified proper before being leaked to the press, but the way these opinions clash in public simply undermines the remaining trust people have in what the task forces or other scientific persons of authority release.
Therefore it would be desirable to get a single official voice for such stuff, who only hand out verified and crosschecked information out to the press. And I suppose it is high time that the press has to take some responsibility in what they publish rather than being only oriented on what generates the most clicks for their advertisers. Quite a lot of rags publish absolutely no content of any form of quality anymore, let alone factual news but only focus on outsell the competition by going more lurid and by leaving professional research and responsibility behind in favour of clickbait.
172driver wrote:
the number of people vaccinated (fully or partially) stands at 62.5M
Update: 64.1M tonight CET. We’re getting there.
