Oh, and I forgot to say, because the 172 lets me make my “first ownership” mistakes at a lower cost than a more expensive/capable aircraft.
No. GA flying collapsed during the epidemic, and even now loads of people are barely getting back into it.
I can only speak for my area but the opposite is true.
Ibra wrote:
I was puzzled would one buy a PA28 or C152/C172 when they can rent it? you have more choice & more availability, some are top upgraded and still way cheaper than flying yours now I should replace that with why people buy Robin DR400 ?
As I wrote above, people in the US do not buy planes purely to achieve the best or cheapest flying experience. Ownership is a goal in itself.
In the US GA flying has been back to normal for quite a while. One of my instructors there told me that he hasn’t taken a day off since April – after a long time of getting very little work at all.
Snoopy wrote:
No. GA flying collapsed during the epidemic, and even now loads of people are barely getting back into it.I can only speak for my area but the opposite is true.
Same here. Aviation was expressly exempt from any and all restrictions, the only thing that happened was a short voluntary slow/shut-down of many schools for a brief period last year around April (essentially the period when it was thought that Covid was transmissible via surfaces). Ever since the schools have been doing a roaring trade (again) and their airplanes are flying their wings off (again) and the regionals are advertising for pilots (again).
As for asking prices being 20-20% over final sales price – dream on. Our club C210 sold within a few weeks for 98% of the asking and I am hearing similar stories all around. Of course there are always some people who try to go way over market value, but anything that’s halfway realistically priced for the current market (i.e. about 40-50% up on pre-Covid) sells very quickly.
A cheap 172 on planecheck has a sale pending 2 days after the ad is posted.
I see the arguments but I don’t see a long term increase in demand.
It’s like houses in the countryside. Currently they sell for any money. You could put a 1M house (next to a bridleway, with stables – the ultimate “horsey woman” place) up for 2M, and it will sell immediately. A 500k house in a village will sell for 1M and that is even if you tell the estate agent that you will not allow anyone to view the inside. I am not kidding, £1500/month apartments are going without the tenant being allowed to view it! Well, if he wants to view it, it will be given to somebody else. People are totally mad.
Do you think this will last? Of course it will crash.
Never seen anything like it.
More or less everything is underpinned by manufacturing, and that isn’t seeing any big increase in demand. Selected sectors are e.g. leisure kit is selling (bikes and anything to do with bikes being one obvious sector) but that’s only because of lockdown driving people around the bend with boredom; it isn’t because people suddenly decided to get healthy 
Peter wrote:
In GA planes, I am sure it is fake too. Are we seeing a big increase in GA activity? No. GA flying collapsed during the epidemic, and even now loads of people are barely getting back into it. Quite a few used the event to re-evaluate their priorities and have given up totally. I think that will be a big problem in due course but that’s another story. Are people buying planes as investments? Of course not – that would be really dumb. So what are people doing with these £100k+ PA28s? It doesn’t add up.
PA28s and C172s are in great demand from the training industry. When a student wrecked our G1000-equipped 2006 C172S the other year by breaking the nose gear on landing, a large flight school nearby offered to buy the wreckage for about €150,000. We declined as we thought the aircraft was worth substantially more when repaired and the hull insurance covered the repair cost.
Some guys in my club paid €50,000 for a 1968 Arrow for earlier this year. The aircraft was generally in good shape but had last century IFR avionics – no GPS – but it did have a 8.33 kHz radio.
Peter wrote:
Do you think this will last? Of course it will crash.
I think once an economy rises above subsistence level, the market price for many objects is based on values, as opposed to needs. Those values can change quickly without the necessity for them to change back. Of course the other factor for some items is low interest rates and when those end it will surely affect buyers, particularly in housing where most sales are made with borrowed money printed by government.
It seems to me manufactured goods are almost all in short supply, both in my hobbies and at work. I don’t know why… but I have a feeling manufacturers can smell inflation and are limiting supply to accelerate it. Government also wants inflation, to eliminate their own debt at the expense of savers.
The property market and the market for toys (aeroplanes/boats/sport and classic cars) are correlated. As long as the price of houses stays healthy, then the toys are going to hold up just fine.
