BeechBaby wrote:
The bottom feeder buyers now are in a bit of trouble.
Yep. Both in properties and airplanes btw. There are practically no “entry level” airframes at prices that comparatively low income people can get these days. Talking 15-30k, you get a couple of Rallyes and that is about it. 3 years ago there were plenty of vintage Mooneys and loads of PA28’s around for this kind of price, only to name a few. So the low budget owners go empty or have to contend with much lesser airframes.
Same thing in properties: I bought my place 2001. I could afford it then. No chance now. Then, a medium to small family home in this area went for about 400-500k CHF. Today, same property is busting the one million figure, anything a bit larger will bust 2-3. No entry level homes at all around here. Actually, at the moment, not a single house for sale in my community at all. I can’t recall that to happen ever since I follow the market.
Clearly, at the a$$ of geography there are some hovels which would go for 200-300k, but not around one of the larger centers. Young families? Not a chance.
While this may bring full cash boxes to some, it is a real problem for most. Inflation over the last couple of years on these things are about 100%, sometimes more. That kicks the bottom out of a darn sight of a lot of people.
I don’t think it is good for either GA nor the property market. In GA, a critical underestimation has turned into the opposite. In property, underestimation has not happened since about 2010. The big question is going to be, will we see a return to “normal” averages or will we continue to go a bubble / bust / bubble /bust sequence. Interesting times
Mooney_Driver wrote:
Interesting times
Definitely. I am in the category was going to sell, do not need the money, but my life is changing and I certainly do not need two aeroplanes. My Bonanza would benefit from a re-paint. It also could do with some avionics work. So..I had a sale plan which fell through. A lot of them do..it was a pity because I would literally have given it away to a good home and owner. Not now. I am going to fully renovate and refurb. I will then sit on it, store it, fly it, and wait and see where the prices go.
I am now more convinced this investment in asset will bring future reward in all aspects of aircraft ownership.
BeechBaby wrote:
I am now more convinced this investment in asset will bring future reward in all aspects of aircraft ownership.
I hope you are right. I am kind of wondering what to do after the airplane gets airworthy again, weather to cash in on the fact that it has a brand new prop and freshly done SSI on the engine or weather to continue for a while and see where the prices go. Seeing that 2 years ago when i briefly posted the plane for sale, I got offers in the region of 20-30k (with an estimate of 80k via MooneyFlyer disregarding some mods), now may well be the time to get out without loosing too much money.
Then again, I like the airplane and would like to continue flying, but really lack the time. Decisions…
Mooney_Driver wrote:
Then again, I like the airplane and would like to continue flying, but really lack the time. Decisions…
I feel your pain and been there many times and done all that. It is quite interesting. As long as YOU pay for your avionics upgrade, pay for the repaint, pay for the zero houred engine, then everyone shows interest. If you then say well I tell you what. I will give it to you for 10k, you upgrade it, then it becomes in their eyes a pile of junk, they come back and say…you do it because I do want a ’’project’’, Problem with that is that you just might scrape 10k profit, so back to square one, without passing go. Meanwhile the potential buyers are stuck in a circular vortex of going nowhere. You are left with the decisions.
Money, cash, and the value of an asset are two entirely different things. The asset is only truly valued when you sell and you can count it. All these paper millionnaires about. Good friend who owned an RV8 said to me once. You are only a millionnaire when you can wander down to your local Barclays and withdraw it, count it, and still have liquid equity. That stuck with me..The analogy is there with people buying stuff…The only folks that can do that are my drug lord friends..or public servants, same thing really, but they then have a different issue. What to do with the cash. Hence the trinkets and tings….
BeechBaby wrote:
As long as YOU pay for your avionics upgrade, pay for the repaint, pay for the zero houred engine, then everyone shows interest. If you then say well I tell you what. I will give it to you for 10k, you upgrade it, then it becomes in their eyes a pile of junk, they come back and say…you do it because I do want a ’’project’’,
I would definitly not offer it as a project. You are right, people don’t like them at all. Well, most.
BeechBaby wrote:
Meanwhile the potential buyers are stuck in a circular vortex of going nowhere.
I find that today airframes in reasonable condition go fast. It is amazing what kind of planes, which would have sat for months in the previous market, are snapped up these days. And it doesn’t do to undervalue the plane either, as again people will smell a “project”. Similarily, when folks brag about the “40k spent” on maintenance, they have no clue that this will make people do a *run Forest run" act very fast indeed.
A no damage complete logs N35 should be worth more than £10k! as @BeechBaby knows :)
Interior, avionics, power-plant and accessories are relatively straightforward and can be priced, and subject to shop availability (especially paint, interior and avionics), the project might be completed in six to twelve months. Expect no change from £100k-120k but this delivers a ‘like new’ with overhauled power plant, IFR capability and digital AP, and excellent airframe. Assume IRAN on all major airframe components eg fuel bladders, gear, flap motors, control cables, gear links, etc Your A&P will thank you as the N35 has the -470N, and am yet to meet an A&P who is fond of the -520 on the later Bonanzas. The N35 with updated avionics should have an empty weight below 2,000 lbs while having the modern airframe of the V35, especially the modern fuel system.
The main issue is making sure the project aircraft has good bones, and in the case of the iconic Bonanza, no corrosion, and the structural recurring ADs are complied with, recently. Filliform corrosion, which on aluminium is usually a cosmetic fix, is quite possibly untreatable on the magnesium ruddervators. This requires both desk top research of the logs and an inspection by someone experienced on the type.
My ruddervators, new in 2016, would fetch 30-40k alone. A1 perfect condition. It would pay me to take them off, and sell them in the States and part out the rest. But, as I stated earlier, I will continue to upgrade my project, store it, fly it, and give it to my kids….It actually makes little financial sense until you look at the capability of the machine you are flying. Any aircraft over 40 years old is technically a project. This of course is the very well worn debate about owning and maintaining aging assets. It is a labour of love, and the conundrum is what are they worth? Yes right now some airframes are going for way in excess of a few years ago, but I do feel that in my disguised line above that there are still plenty of ownership dreamers out there, who when faced with dipping hands in pockets, falter. And I really do understand. Soon the airframes will be rarer which in theory will push the price, I think..Example, I could/would not buy a 250k Cirrus, or the like. A36/G36 etc. A) Could not afford it, B) Would not want it in today’s climate of travel. Decisions….
BeechBaby wrote:
I certainly do not need two aeroplanes. My Bonanza would benefit from a re-paint.
So actually, you own a Bonanza and what else?
BeechBaby wrote:
My ruddervators, new in 2016, would fetch 30-40k alone.
Are they still the magnesium type or has there been a change in this?
BeechBaby wrote:
Yes right now some airframes are going for way in excess of a few years ago, but I do feel that in my disguised line above that there are still plenty of ownership dreamers out there, who when faced with dipping hands in pockets, falter. And I really do understand.
Even more will falter now because the prices are up. During the time when it was a buyers market and you could get the likes of an aveage M20J for 40k or a Bonnie for 50, lots more people took the dip because the could afford it. PA28-140 were between 15-20k at times, -180/Archers started up at 30k.There were V-Tail Bonnies for 30-50k available. Today, the same airframes are double the price, very few 201’ are going below 100k and most Bonnies get even more than that. If you can find one that is.
BeechBaby wrote:
Soon the airframes will be rarer which in theory will push the price, I think..
It aleady does. Just look at the listings I follow some listings of interest to me (purely window shopping) and most types are down to single digit exemplars on offer, quite a few can not be found at all or all that is there are wrecks projects which have been on the market for years.
Just try to find a good Twin Comanche or Travel Air for a reasonable price. Just nothing there.
No doubt that currently is a good time to sell a plane. In contrast to traditional belief you even get your money back if you have made recent investments into avionics (as long as it makes sense and you not just added to the zoo in the panel) – with the shortage of electronics and completely unclear delivery times by Garmin a buyer doesn’t have the option of buying a steam panel and doing the upgrade himself in couple of weeks.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
Then again, I like the airplane and would like to continue flying, but really lack the time. Decisions…
I would not think about it that way, but rather like “What would I do with the money I get at the sale and save on ongoing cost?” If the answer is: “I put it on my bank account to see it devaluated over time” then you should keep the plane. If it is “I could do xyzzy with/for my family that I could not afford if I kept the plane” then sell it.
Malibuflyer wrote:
I would not think about it that way, but rather like “What would I do with the money I get at the sale and save on ongoing cost?” If the answer is: “I put it on my bank account to see it devaluated over time” then you should keep the plane. If it is “I could do xyzzy with/for my family that I could not afford if I kept the plane” then sell it.
Add to that: clearly if I sell off now, I am out for good. With rising prices I will never be able to afford another plane.
To the rest I agree. There is not much I can’t offer my family if I keep it or sell it other than time. Which, in the end, may be more valuable than money. You can earn money back, you can’t get wasted time back, ever.
