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USA seller’s market: are we reaching Peak Cherokee

“For example if I’d want to have an independent mechanic (knowing tb-20) to do a prebuy, where to find?”
You’ll need someone to do your maintenance – preferably familiar with the type. Once you’ve found them, get them to do your prebuy inspection. You’ll be a long-term customer, and they’ll likely want to earn your trust. (And €$£.) to

Maoraigh
EGPE, United Kingdom

OK. I am calling the top of the market. It’s bonkers, no real supply and the few aircraft for sale are being shaken out by brokers at huge prices.

Oh and whilst I’m at it, the stock market and property market will go down the pan too!

United Kingdom

You may be right. I have just seen a tiny little terrace house which I am very familiar with, valued at 400k. But I have seen two “corrections” in property, both in the 1980s/90s, involving dives of ~70% and ~30%, but those were triggered by two concurrent factors: fear of unemployment and high interest rates. This time we have neither; well certainly not the first one, with anybody who can spell their 1st name and put their shoes on, being able to get a job Interesting debate how much of the psychology is interlinked between these topics. I reckon quite a lot.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

In the 80s and 90s we had a very different economic system in the UK. Banks took deposits, used them to make loans, and paid some of the interest they charged back to the depositors. Local banks had managers whose career depended on them making the correct decisions, using local knowledge.
People had assets.
For many years now banks try to persuade savers to put their money in investment companies. Equity release is promoted. The money released is either spent on items which lose their value, or circulated into the investment trusts.
This time a slight increase in interest rates will produce a meltdown. The Chinese Government is taking action, according to their news. Action on the economy, continuing to use fossil fuels.
Our Government policies on energy will acerbate the problems. The Scottish Government is particularly bad for this.

Maoraigh
EGPE, United Kingdom

https://www.planecheck.com/?ent=da&id=51913

May need a .pdf link
[ done – use this site as mentioned here ]

Cessna 140, quite a practical tail wheel, but with somewhat vague ailerons and lacking the charisma of a Luscombe.

€70k is quite ambitious certainly the highest price I have ever seen for the type.

Oxford (EGTK)

70k for a C140 is just silly money. A good one is worth about 25k. I suspect they spent a lot of money on that and believe it justifies the asking price, but I think they are going to be disappointed and most likely won’t be able to sell it for the money they poured into it – or perhaps it’s a “yes I tried to sell it but no one’s buying” price.

Last Edited by alioth at 06 Dec 16:55
Andreas IOM

A guy I know spent about that amount doing an as-new restoration on a C140, but he didn’t plan on selling it. It comes out to fly once in a while.

Not long after he bought a Jungmann, flew it a while and did the same level of restoration to that one too… its a habit apparently

I see an 80s N-reg M20J on planecheck for €170k! It does have TKS and a low time engine but that his a lot imo.

Last Edited by zuutroy at 06 Dec 17:54
EIMH, Ireland

It is quite normal to get a “pricing overhang” when the demand is apparently about to collapse – because people won’t face the imminent loss, so they hang out there for “a bit longer”.

You get the same with houses, which is why housing markets have seen some rapid collapses; people hang on as long as they can but eventually some have to sell because they are moving due to a job change etc and this triggers an avalanche. I have seen two of these: 55k to 15k in the 1980s, and 105k to 75k ~7 years after that.

Planes will go the same way eventually, and we will be back to 1984 TB20s (admittedly shagged ones) going for 40k. I just cannot reconcile high prices with how many people I know for whom CV19 was the last straw and they sold up and got out.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Peter wrote:

same with houses, which is why housing markets have seen some rapid collapses; people hang on as long as they can but eventually some have to sell because they are moving due to a job change etc and this triggers an avalanche. I have seen two of these: 55k to 15k in the 1980s, and 105k to 75k ~7 years after that.

What about inflation, Peter? Prices won’t drop but it is eventually a decrease.

LHFM, LHTL, Hungary
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