24hrs later. There is a LOT of activity going on. 44 APCs destroyed.
TSMC in Taiwan has cut off Putin’s supply of the Russian-designed Elbrus CPU chips, used extensively in Russian military equipment, especially its aircraft. Russia has no advanced chip fabbing capability of its own, and TSMC was the sole supplier of the Elbrus CPUs to Russia.
The war is exposing all kinds of stuff in W Europe and countries’ real interests…
What I don’t get is how so many people don’t seem to get is that if Ukraine falls, Putin will just carry on, under the explicitly stated “if you interfere I will nuke you” umbrella which is clearly working perfectly for him.
Anyway, Russia soon won’t have enough hardware for a Red Square parade. In last 24hrs:
13 tanks,
3 artillery systems,
17 units of armored vehicles,
4 armored combat vehicles,
18 units of automotive equipment,
4 enemy fuel tanks.
3 Orlan-10 drones
and this is just a part of yesterday’s activity. Ukraine’s losses seem to run around 1/5 of Russia’s.
Estimates of Russia’s losses, as a % of their stock, vary, but they are large especially in some departments. And Russia has not got very far:
Most of the above was done in the early days when Ukraine had nothing much to fight with.
Now Ukraine is getting a large amount of modern 155mm stuff, mostly from the US, which is exactly what Russia has nothing to counter, partly due to (long story; lots online) problems with fuzes. Never thought artillery would matter in the 21st century but a) it does with Russia and their “methods” and b) the modern stuff is much more accurate. But details are not being published because everything re who supplied what and how well it is working, is sensitive.
This whole thing has shown how utterly backward Russia is, both technologically and in attitudes to “civilisation” (their methods re civilians are not only cruel but stupidly counter-productive and more or less out of a book on warfare in the first few centuries AD) and anything even half good has already been stolen/sold/decayed. The soldiers are intentionally drawn from poor parts of Russia (which is nearly all of it) hence the looting of washing machines etc. Well, the world would have much bigger problems if they got their act together. The brainwashing of Russia by their media is total – 100% BS. Kiev by 9th May! But the reality is slowly feeding back from the field – even if most of the recipients flatly refuse to believe it.
What will be interesting is how quickly the West will be pushing for “normalisation of relations”. Lots of lessons being learnt – example.
Also interesting will be which countries in the West will be insisting on the return of the 100k+ kidnapped people (kidnapping such numbers has to be one of the craziest moves by Russia) before “normalising” relations.
It’s indeed surprising that artillery makes such a difference in a recent war. Actually MLRS type of this seems not precise and is in the war logic of the russia, as targetting cities, cutting supplies for as long as necessary, and then capture people then deport for a piece of bread.
Western war seems cleaner and do use self proprelled and managed howitzer (I think Czeck Republic and France did send their on the fields and are actually training UA soldiers on these). Not sure if it’s only marketting, but they seem far better in targetiing and reaching a target, and not a large zone like MLRS.
Peter wrote:
What will be interesting is how quickly the West will be pushing for “normalisation of relations”. Lots of lessons being learnt – example.
Unfortunately, big enterprises with very wealthy people will work as oligarch and won’t give a f*ck on deportation and killed civilians, they just want to keep on gathering $$. Airbus is one, there are many other that are taking time to slow down their activity in russia. Most of them do not need money, they just want to keep their business.
Apparently Russia has few or no proximity fuzes, so their shelling is ineffective militarily (mostly makes nice round holes in farmed fields, in a random pattern) so they shell towns and villages instead. It’s like Britain was partly glad Hitler was bombing cities instead of RAF airfields and other facilities which would have been much more damaging.
The MLRS is WW2 stuff, designed to scare the enemy, and with no accuracy. Anything ballistic and with propellant will never be accurate because so much depends on the propellant mass, density, even temperature. But it’s all good Red Square parade stuff 
I reckon the next Mad Max movie can be made in Ukraine
I want one of those! Or this one
BBC video on GA helping get supplies to hospitals in Ukraine
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61326293
Positive coverage, for once
The numbers continue to ramp up, faster than before as new hardware gets delivered, mainly from the US, bits from elsewhere.
How long before Vlad the Impaler decides this isn’t going anywhere?
Russia did WW2 the same way. Approximately: US lost 250k. Germany lost 4M, Russia lost 27M. Value of a soldier = 0.
Peter wrote:
How long before Vlad the Impaler decides this isn’t going anywhere?
Soon, I hope. Most experts are very pessimistic, unfortunately. The seizing of one of Vlad’s many yachts in Italy might help.
For anyone that wants to help Van’s Aircraft RV-6 owner and pilot Alex Gorbachenko in Ukraine, I’ve got information here: http://www.rv8.ch/help-people-in-ukraine/
Alex is using whatever donations he gets for direct relief to people. He’s sending me updates regularly to share with you to try to get more support for these people. Even $100 makes a huge difference, and that’s only 40 liters of fuel.
Peter wrote:
I know a guy who was always talking about moving to the Spanish mountains, because he was convinced there will be a nuclear war and Spain will be the last place to get hit. Of course he is not a pilot…
Figures. It kind of reminds me of the old tale of some Brits who decided in 1980 or so to relocate to the Falklands out of fear of war in Europe. Well. didn’t quite work for them I suppose, if they ever existed.
But frankly, if one wants to avoid the consequences of a war in Europe, nowhere in Europe or NATO is save. Some discussions I heard point to either the sandpit, because that is where they now have their money and they won’t nuke that place or to put as much distance as possible between Europe and oneself. That would suggest places in the Southern hemisphere such as Southern Africa, Southern South America or OZ/NZ or someplace in that region. Which of course brings us back to the unfortunate Falkland Emigrees. One just never knows. And with a nuclear overkill and winter, it won’t matter anyway unless you own a doomsday shelter! and reach it in time.
Graham wrote:
Thus the vulnerable places might be the ones that are NATO members, but not nuclear-capable themselves and not ‘best buddies’ with the ones that are.
I believe that if he wants to make a nuclear point, it will most probably be either in Ukraine itself (such as Kiev) or somewhere off shore or in uninhabited areas near or in a country which has shown resiliance or threatened actions he deems unacceptable. E.g somwhere around the UK or in one of the aspiring NATO members in Scandinavia. kind of the nuclear variant of a shot across the bow.
The PR for GA is always good, but to be brutally honest (and I know you posted that link before) you would achieve 10x to 100x more by spending the cost of the flight on getting the stuff shipped conventionally.
It is like that TBM fly-out from the US to Timbuctu (Mali, Africa), some years ago, to bring a load of medicines. It was a great trip for them all but again at least 100x less cost effective than just shipping it.
Peter wrote:
The PR for GA is always good, but to be brutally honest (and I know you posted that link before) you would achieve 10x to 100x more by spending the cost of the flight on getting the stuff shipped conventionally.
That’s for sure. Nothing wrong with the PR for GA of course, and to keep the situation in people’s minds. Perhaps budget a bit to just send to people on the ground that are spending the money very judiciously. Getting the stuff (diapers, medicines, canned food) is not the hard part – the hard part is getting that stuff to the people that need it. That requires trucks, fuel, drivers, contacts, and of course knowing how to safely get from A to B. And of course all the volunteers need to eat.
