This is a good and well explained summary of how to go forward.
But this is possible only after a military defeat of Russia, or some regime change there.
This is a funny maneuver, given the US has just said they won’t send the Abrams. Strange games being played…
Just read an article on the state news here (NRK). Ukraine is in dire need of two items. Air defence and main battle tanks. Air defence is not very problematic, politically speaking, but main battle tanks obviously is. Highest on the list is the German Leopard 2. Why? because it is the best there is all things considered and there are lots of them in Europe/NATO. They need at least 300 main battle tanks according to Ukrainian officials.
However, Germany does not want to send Leopard 2, and they also deny everyone else to send Leopard 2 citing some German export law. While Germany is sending “several hundreds” armored vehicles, none of these are main battle tanks, not a single Leopard 2. And then there are these odd things:
I seriously don’t get this. It reminds me of Erdogan-tactics. Only here it is not clear what the goal (of the German politics) is.
It looks like they also want the French battle tank, the ‘Leclerc’. A French newspaper is quoting a twit from the Ukrainian ministry of defense: link
As far I can understand, for the Leclerc, the problem is that France don’t have many of them, so sending them to Ukraine would seriously impact the French military and it’s not produced anymore…
WingsWaterAndWheels wrote:
As far I can understand, for the Leclerc, the problem is that France don’t have many of them, so sending them to Ukraine would seriously impact the French military and it’s not produced anymore…
A bit like the Norwegian military. They have decided main battle tanks are “not of importance” in Norway, they would rather use the money on something else. We only got a handful of ex Dutch military tanks. Still Leopard 2, but I mean, 40 year old second hand tanks… The political decision is however to get new main battle tanks by 2025. There are two contenders. Leopard 2 A7 and the South Korean K2 Black Panther.
There has to be a lesson for everybody in the world here: don’t buy any military equipment whose export somebody might block for domestic politial reasons. Which countries these are, is very obvious. Easy peace in Europe is over, finished, gone. The impact on jobs in the military sectors of CH and DE is going to be huge.
As for the rest, like that poll, the mind boggles. What possible good would there be in a defeat of Ukraine? Cheap gas, yeah, but 5-10 years after that??
Poland has balls. They always did.
LeSving wrote:
The polls in Germany says 42% of the population is against sending Leopard 2. Only 39% is for sending Leopard 2.
What’s that all about?
Germany knows darn well that they are the main target of Russias agression, once they are done in Ukraine. They are their archenemy. So they are trying (unsuccessfully imho) to not provide them with a casus belli.
The German government however has other motivation not to provide Leopard tanks: They fear that destroyed tanks will provide the Russians with technology they don’t want to fall into Russian hands. At least not unless those tanks are defending their own country. IMHO, if they wanted to be sure about that, they should never have let them be exported in the first place.
Peter wrote:
What possible good would there be in a defeat of Ukraine? Cheap gas, yeah, but 5-10 years after that??
That is not what Germany wants. But the population is scared that the Russians will target them next and wish to avoid giving them a reason to.
Peter wrote:
The impact on jobs in the military sectors of CH and DE is going to be huge.
I doubt it. Anyone who buys Swiss weapons knows the small print. Defense only, not propagation to other countries without permission and no propagation to countries involved in warfare. That is part of the neutrality contract Switzerland has. They violate it, their contractual neutrality will fall.
Neutrality has saved Switzerland from Hitler, along with business and other concerns the Germans had. It is a belief most people in this country share that neutrality would also save them from Putin, primarily however because he also has billions stashed away here. No doubt in my mind that if Russia were to conquer most of Europe, any kind of sanctions would drop very fast to make sure the statute would hold. IMHO, dream of a long gone time. Yes, I believe in neutrality in order to provide the diplomatic services between war parties, as Switzerland has done e.g. between the US and Iran and between others, but in the case of Russia, all bets are totally off that this guy would honor any contract or agreement.
Neutrality has saved Switzerland from Hitler
Tongue in cheek, obviously…
Private banking, anyone 
They fear that destroyed tanks will provide the Russians with technology they don’t want to fall into Russian hands
It is 200% certain the USSR had absolutely everything Germany ever developed, within 24hrs. Anything deployed in a tank in service, in much less than 24hrs. I mean, of the order of 5% of the former DDR population was pro-USSR and these are now well integrated into Germany as a whole, at every level. Counter-espionage is impossible.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
The German government however has other motivation not to provide Leopard tanks: They fear that destroyed tanks will provide the Russians with technology they don’t want to fall into Russian hands. At least not unless those tanks are defending their own country. IMHO, if they wanted to be sure about that, they should never have let them be exported in the first place.
Unlikely. These tanks have been exported to various states and are by now so widely proliferated that I very much doubt that the Russians don’t have the full specs already. Also, the export variants would mostly be older models, not the top of the line Leopard A7V variant (which has an Easter Egg in its name because the original German WWI tank was also designated A7V).
LeSving wrote:
The polls in Germany says 42% of the population is against sending Leopard 2. Only 39% is for sending Leopard 2.
What’s that all about?
Don’t draw too many conclusions from a single set of polls with a huge margin of error. I also read polls today which had 46% in favour for delivery vs 43% against, and others with 52% in favour.
But yes, the population is split on this. Being part of the “pro” camp I have no idea what the “contra” people want, mostly I think they are afraid or have a naive pacifist worldview. The latter became very fashionable in Germany after the student revolts of ’68 and that generation has since taken over leadership positions throughout politics and media.
LeSving wrote:
I seriously don’t get this. It reminds me of Erdogan-tactics. Only here it is not clear what the goal (of the German politics) is.
It might have to do with a time at which German battle tanks have been fighting in Ukraine / Crimea before. There are certainly different circumstances today, but Germany is still very sensitive to its history regarding WW2.
(I’m not making a pro or con point for the delivery of L2s to Ukraine here, just trying to explain the German constraint regarding this matter.)
