Archer-181 wrote:
Lockdowns have a massive cost which nobody ever discusses in the media. We need a proper cost/benefit analysis which in 5-10 years we will understand better.
This was discussed a lot in Swedish media at the beginning of the pandemic as the societal costs of lockdowns was a major reason for the relatively light touch in Sweden.
(Yes, I know that in terms of fatalities as measured by excess deaths, Sweden came out badly compared to our Nordic neighbours, but if you compare with Europe as a whole, we did quite well.)
Jujupilote wrote:
What do the experts here think on the obsolescence of the current vax ? With so much people vaxed with the same products, and a so much mutable virus, won’t it be all over again in a few months ?
No, because COVID doesn’t mutate that fast (e.g. compared to flu) and the vaccines target the spike protein, the part that makes it so virulent. If the spike protein changes enough to completely evade the immune system of the vaccinated, it’s probably changed enough that it simply doesn’t work any more as a virus.
The mRNA manufacturing technique can also provide new vaccines very quickly.
Peter wrote:
Actually I don’t know whether the UK vacc passport involves a database lookup, either. I did a lot of googling and found exactly nothing, but I suspect the UK one does not involve an online check, because it would not be reliable for use in venues if it relies on 100% internet access. They must just be validating the QR code.
There is no need to do database lookups – you can create tokens that can be securely validated using cryptographic signatures – you can validate that the data in the QR code is unmodified and signed by the signer with the public key. In fact one would expect to do vaccine certificates that need to be checked in a massive number of locations this way rather than relying on online database lookups, the latter which is going to result in problems because no one’s internet is 100% reliable, and if you’re getting hundreds of thousand requests a second there’s going to be costs involved which simply don’t exist if the clients are just verifying a cryptographic signature.
It’s not like the QR code has to store much, first name, last name, DOB, vaccination type, and a digital signature. This is enough to verify the bearer’s QR code matches their photo id. A version 40 QR code, with error correction, can store up to 1276 bytes (and you can probably get the required data into much less, e.g. around 512 bytes).
Airborne_Again wrote:
How did these countries plan to end the containment regimes from the beginning? It was already obvious that the disease was not going to go away. Or didn’t they plan that far ahead?
They obviously held onto a zero covid policy and expected everyone to do the same. Turns out, they won the war against Covid and we lost.
It is extremely sarcastic to now criticize them and demand they let the thing in, just because the western world did not manage to achieve what they did. Australia and NZ are not dictatorships, they are democracies like us, maybe better forms of statecraft than we have seen here. They had clear communication, no dicking around, they took decisions and stuck to it. I have not followed how things turned out in Taiwan, who initially also sucessfully kept the virus out.
The rest of the world failed to do that, caved in to political hanky-panky, were not ready to take the first steps in February/March 2020 to ensure this thing gets under control, and even when they had the case figures down in summer, they spoilt it by opening up tourism. Recklessness, caving in to political pressure and ignorance of expert advice were the reasons for this. Even when it was made brutally clear by the example of the Spanish flu and earlier covid epidemics how the thing would develop, politicians still refused to take the only action that made sense then.
So now those who won, those who did everything right, should open their doors to those who have not? Sorry, if I were there, my opinion would be very clear: Keep them out, those who have to get in, quarantine them under government control until you are darn sure they are clean. And start vaccinating their own population now with urgency. Once they do have a fully vaccinated population, restrictions can maybe be relaxed to just negative tests and vaccined people, even though it is very clear from what is going on in Europe and elsewhere that this policy does not work.
Vaccination is a protection against severe illness and death, nothing more. It does not sufficiently hamper spread. So actually, vaccinated people in terms of spread have an advantage over unvaccinated as they are some 50% protected against infection, but for the purpose of epidemic control this is not enough by far to be let loose in a covid free society.
I honestly hope Australia and NZ keep their doors firmly shut and do not cave in to pressure to open up. It would be treason to the people who have endured hardships to win the war against Covid.
There is no need to do database lookups – you can create tokens that can be securely validated using cryptographic signatures – you can validate that the data in the QR code is unmodified and signed by the signer with the public key. In fact one would expect to do vaccine certificates that need to be checked in a massive number of locations this way rather than relying on online database lookups, the latter which is going to result in problems because no one’s internet is 100% reliable, and if you’re getting hundreds of thousand requests a second there’s going to be costs involved which simply don’t exist if the clients are just verifying a cryptographic signature.
Yes indeed; it is the obvious way to do it. But is this documented somewhere?
One could also store face vectors in the QR code which would then make it totally free-standing and not needing another ID document.
The funny thing about this CV19 business is that whatever you google on you get the same websites containing the same BBC-like utterly banal sanitised text, aimed at basically stupid people. There is a massive amount of information management going on behind the scenes. This site for GPs shows a little bit of what the govt has done in terms of sanitising the internet. They even give you phrases to record on your phone answering machine (nowadays called “voicemail” 
) so you don’t get a patient saying that a different GP practice told him something else.
I honestly hope Australia and NZ keep their doors firmly shut and do not cave in to pressure to open up. It would be treason to the people who have endured hardships to win the war against Covid.
They won’t win. They would just stay isolated for ever. Vaccination is the only way out of this.
There has been some interesting data on the Pfizer vaccine. In Israel where they had a 4 week interval they are finding that the immunity reduces a lot after a few months. In the UK which did a much longer interval (I think 12 weeks mainly, reducing to 8 later) this has not been found. here and the dumbed-down version.
Peter wrote:
In the UK which did a much longer interval this has not been found.
I think it’s been known for decades at this point, 2 jab vaccines are always a lot more effective if you have the second jab 8-12 weeks after the first, rather than a shorter time period. It’s just more data confirming what was already known. The short period between the first and second during the trials was just a means to get the trials done quicker, as having the effectiveness of the two jabs 4 weeks apart is a lot better than no vaccine at all, and the costs of lockdowns etc. are extremely high.
On a more positive note, it appears that infectios diseases as a while have seen a massive reduction as a consequence of the Covid measures. A graphic which appeared in one of our newspapers today, shows interesting figures released by the Swiss health ministry.
Respiratory diseases had a reduction of between 25 and 58%, Pneumokokken infections (pneumonia and related diseases) reduced by 58%. The flu basically did not happen at all.
This of course rises the question, how hygiene and preventive measures taken during corona can be adapted into the future without being oppressive but effective nontheless. Wearing masks when feeling ill as it’s common in Asia, going out more into nature, keeping fitter, lesser density in populated places, desinfectant availability in public places and transport e.t.c. may well have a lasting positive effect on public health and also reduce healthcare cost. Clearly, this can not be implemented in a policing sort of way, but has to become part of manners and society to be successful. One can only hope people won’t forget a lot of things they do automatically today if this ever is over.
Source: Data: Swiss health ministery, graphics: Blick.
Peter wrote:
They won’t win. They would just stay isolated for ever.
They have won for now.
Even if they only get it after vaccinating everyone, they still will be in a much better position as we are.
Vaccination is the only way out of this.
Yes. That is what I wrote as well. They have to now vaccinate their whole population through. Otherwise they really have to isolate for the forseeable future.
The problem in Australia is they have failed to acquire vaccines. The delta variant is also so slippery, unless you simply ban all incoming flights/ships, it’s going to escape and cause constant lockdowns.
Airborne_Again wrote:
How did these countries plan to end the containment regimes from the beginning? It was already obvious that the disease was not going to go away. Or didn’t they plan that far ahead?
It was never was and still really isn’t the policy of Australia to eliminate the virus (at least at the federal level) mainly because they didn’t think it was possible. At the state level, of which Australia has 6 (or 8 depending how you count) which are responsible for health and control there own state borders! (you can’t currenly move freely around australia) then they had different ideas, and they are still fighting about it… West Australia definitely has an elimination policy, the much more populated liberal eastern state of NSW doesn’t.
They prefer the use term of no community transmission, but it is all politics, 
it only make sense as a “let the rest of the world figure out first, and then follow them” policy.
Right now there is big outbreak in the east (will take months to get under control with current approach), and politians and there a pushing the population to get vacinated after medical groups freightening everyone about AZ, and the rest of the states are trying to lock the place down. It is pretty obvious that elimination doesn’t work as a long term strategy, IMHO the only question is when you move from short term to medium to the final long term approach.
It is very possible with current outbreak that the tide will turn and vaccination instead of no community transmission will become the policy because they are forced to do the former as they loose the battle over this outbreak.
If I was laying bets this is how I think this will play out, either this time or next outbreak!
