GRAMET is graphical plot from the US GFS wx model. It is good as forecasts go but nothing even remotely approaches getting actual data and only then one can decide definitely.
I would almost never cancel a trip on the basis of any forecast.
Well, maybe if a passenger says that he will be fired if the return is delayed. Then I would scrap it immediately 
I would almost never cancel a trip on the basis of any forecast.
Spot on.
The forecasts of temperatures aloft are normally quite accurate. I usually find them within 1-2 degC.
If you are cruising in IMC at -3C then expect ice, sooner rather than later.
The MSLP for 1200 today is here
which suggests (away from the fronts and ignoring the trough) nothing dramatic except probably a cloud layer, and VMC on top in an SR22 should be readily achievable.
However the trough is a PROB30+ TEMPO TSRA and sure enough the current sferics image is here
The IR image confirms scattered TS with tops FL200-300
Radar likewise (meteox.com not working right now)
So, the story is probably that a VMC on top flight would be OK if you keep away from any big stuff, which could be a challenge in the terminal areas.
Guys….
Somehow I feel you misinterpret my post.
My intention was to seek your opinions/interpretations of the weather as depicted. But somehow you seem to give advice about other topics. I do know that the autorouter gramet is experimental, is new, that I should use multiple sources, etc.
All I wanted was a conversation about what is depicted. I’m sure the product will mature, will become a reliable source over time. When it does the question “how to read it” still remains. So I thought that might be an interesting and worthwhile activity here on EuroGA. Don’t you agree?
So … Allow me another try:
Given the first GRAMET, how do you read it?
What would you expect?
How would you plan your flight in those given conditions?
What would your thoughts regarding risk assessment and out-strategy be?
What other questions should be asked?
@Peter Thank you for the other data and its discussion. Much appreciated.
Sorry Stephan, but I think our replies were very much on topic.
Or possibly, your questions are not the right ones.
Given the first GRAMET, how do you read it?
Well, look at it and see what it says.
What would you expect?
Nothing. I would not fly with just that piece of information. Hence, I wouldn’t “expect” anything based just on that GRAMET. Expectations come after the briefing (the very last one just before the flight, i.e. with sat image and radar image at hand) is complete.
How would you plan your flight in those given conditions?
Depends on the outcome of the briefing.
What would your thoughts regarding risk assessment and out-strategy be?
See above.
What other questions should be asked?
Where can I get more met information?
If that GRAMET uses grey to depict IMC, it is incorrect.
The IMC is shown far too close to the ground, for the conditions existing.
If you have a look at the metars for various airports in the area you find that cloudbases (including CB bases) are in the 2000-4000 region, which is what I would expect for that region on the MSLP.
That’s unless I am misinterpreting the times of the flight etc.
How would you plan your flight in those given conditions?
VMC on top i.e. a clear path to VMC in the departure area (possibly via an obviously thin cloud layer) and a likely descent path in the arrival area, possibly through IMC but nothing too nasty and convective, and with the temperature at the MSA at least +2C to melt off any ice collected long before one reaches the runway.
What would your thoughts regarding risk assessment and out-strategy be?
Lots of fuel And do the enroute bit in VMC.
What other questions should be asked?
I wouldn’t do it just for fun, but this case illustrates well why one needs to see the actuals rather than forecasts.
Found it via google! It appears better than Ogimet in that you can enter lat/long for any point on earth….however I can’t get it to do anything more than from time now…..I enter days/hours in the future but it makes no difference….
That was a bug which I have just fixed. Incidentally somebody else reported the very same thing today. The standalone GRAMET is at http://router.euroga.org/gramet
So you theoretically can’t file F050 – but A050 – first flightlevel would be FL60 provided QNH is 1013 or above.
You can file everything in flight levels but you will be given QNH below the transition altitude (which you technically can’t really know where it is because it depends on the weather and how the ANSP treats it). In the USA, the transition altitude is 18,000ft. I would not bother with A050 or the like, F works just fine. In the US you hear funny statements like “you can’t fly in the flight levels unless you have a DME” or “VFR is prohibited in flight levels” because they cannot imagine one would have flight levels below 18,000ft.
Regarding the forecast: fly FL100 or so and carefully study the METAR/TAFs of your destination. GFS shows a high probability of stratus/fog in the boundary layer. This is a warning but it is highly inaccurate (GFS is not great down low). TAFs are very reliable, done by real humans that only do it for their area. If FL050 gives you a shorter routing, file that and then climb to FL100. You will never have to fly a route/altitude that gives you problems with the weather, “due to weather” is the joker card that gives you everything you want from ATC.
First of all I’d like to thank you for your replies. However, I may have difficulties in formulating my question appropriately. Seems to be a typical challenge on online forums. Sorry for any confusion I may have caused.
What I’m after is a discussion of performing the flight, if the actual weather were as depicted. Please, let’s treat the image as actual and not as a forecast.
I would like to learn from that discussion and please be assured that I would not plan a flight based on just one image. I am a happy user of DWD and use the various products they offer.
Regarding the forecast: fly FL100 or so and carefully study the METAR/TAFs of your destination. GFS shows a high probability of stratus/fog in the boundary layer. This is a warning but it is highly inaccurate (GFS is not great down low).
Interesting point as to what that low level grey area means. Thank you.
From past experience I already know that EDAZ and EDDB can have a lot of fog early in the morning until about noon. So that EDDB TAF is quite relevant.
