GA plane as inflation protection

Because the C182 is the Swiss Army Knife of piston GA. There really isn’t anything comparable out there wrt payload and wide mission capabilities. In our club we keep discussing selling ours – and then realize we can’t replace it.

PS: some people would of course say the C185 is even better, but taildraggers aren’t everyone’s cup o’ tea.

Yes, airplanes will tumble in price in the next few years. It tends to follow the cycle of real estate, i.e., there’s a slowness in the market. Just like during the crash in 2008, real estate didn’t hit the true lows until 2009, 2010, about 12-18 months after the market crash. I would say the airplane market follows pretty closely to that. So in about a year or years time, it will really hit lows. I’m talking 50% off, my prediction. So hold on to cash.

As for aircraft being a good way to protect assets – no. They’re pits. They will always be pits. Only 3 planes are impervious and actually increase in value: Cubs, C182/185’s, PC-12’s. The rest – anvils dropped off of a cliff.

The Seneca is a very practical MEP but I suspect operating an MEP will become even more onerous over the short to medium term, with poor residual values.

If a bargain comes up why not? Be aware that even if you save €50-100k over a nice Beech 36 or Saratoga, you will soon (in 2-3 years) have equalised the investment due to the additional feeding and maintenance, but without the healthy residual values of the better IFR SEP.

Quote
who outside of a training school wants a seneca

I don’t understand? Please explain.
I’ve always thought it would be a great aircraft. Comfortable cabin class, good short field performance. Capable in wx. Capable of getting over lots of Wx. Security of a second engine for low IMC water crossings and Night flight. Reasonable fuel burn for all of the above benefits. What have I missed?

Lot of seneca’s and Robinson R44s popping up on PC – considering the market for Senecas is 100% professional training schools there maybe some relative bargains but then again who outside of a training school wants a seneca, and given the uncertain outlook for airlines over the next 2 years I don’t think its a business to be investing in.
I don’t think planes are a good inflation bet right now – especially older avgas planes – highly illiquid asset of questionable value in danger of being legislated out of existence – oil may remain cheap for the next couple of year but if the EU has its way carbon taxes are only going to up which offsets any oil price decline.
By hook or by crook my next plane is going to be a diesel burner or a modern rotax – (preferably a diesel because I am wary of the rotax 915 – its expensive and when pouring on the coals not very efficient – bfsc is not far off a lycoming or continental once you get over 80% power)

GA_Pete wrote:

I’m only closely friendly with 3 IR pilots but they only fly 6pack.
I personally would (if I had it) would rather spend 35-50k on flying rather than upgrade to glass.

Your own plane is a different thing! Question is, if for IFR-training the majority of customers would chose a 180/hr plane with steam or an 199/hr one with at least an Aspen.

172driver wrote:

Right now, if you have cash – hang on to it. Deals will be had.

For “bigger” planes, apparently the Coronavirus crisis has incited some people to want to close their deals quickly:
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/business-aviation/2020-03-23/iada-notes-march-surge-bizav-aircraft-transactions

With growing flight restrictions and stay-at-home orders in the offing, the pace of transactions is highly likely to slow as approvals and regulatory obligations take longer to achieve, Starling added. But economic effects of the pandemic could lead to further changes in the market for buyers and sellers of preowned business aircraft, he noted.

Malibuflyer wrote:

- The rent out business model depends on the flight school market. Obviously for every flight school that is in capacity need such an offer is attractive. If market slows down, however, your plane will be the first to not being utilized and therefor doesn’t earn its maintenance cost. Plane needs to fly at least 150 paid hrs. per year to do this…

I’ve looked into this from both sides as potential owner and for our club as lessee. Believe me, unless you are in some sweet spot by dint of unusual circumstances, the numbers don’t add up. As owner (lessor) you carry the entire risk, whereas the lessee essentially only gets the benefits. It may (may!!) work if you just want to defray some cost of ownership, but then ask yourself – would you want to own a school plane?

Malibuflyer wrote:

Depends extremely on the location of this plane. I would assume that over the next couple of years the market for steam gauge IFR-Trainers will become very limited: With the availability of comparatively cheap glass cockpits the willingness of customers to pay for steam planes will deteriorate quickly in Western Europe…

100% correct, not only for Western Europe. The price for glass is tumbling and the old six-pack is going the way of the Dodo, especially for IFR.

Now, there’s also our friend SARS Cov-2…. you can bet that once this is over, many, many people won’t be able to afford an airplane and/or flying anymore, at lest for a while. I expect prices – especially for airplanes with legacy panels – to come down significantly.

Right now, if you have cash – hang on to it. Deals will be had.