Energy crisis & inflation : will GA survive in Europe ?

The question will be if the green visions of the EC and some of the larger country’s governments will actually come to anything, seeing that people are getting more and more restless and frustrated. How much does it take until people will revolt against green artificial inflation of energy prices? Not that much I think. Will those people be re-elected? Or who will?

Jujupilote wrote:

The burden will be on the people’s shoulders.

Exactly. Will the people have it? France has a long tradition to react to such things, so do others.

Jujupilote wrote:

Many people already stopped flying since 2020.
This could the final straw that would bring GA below a critical mass.

Standard of living is decreasing for many, but not necessarily financially but as a function of lack of time and ressources. I know many people who have not had a day to themselves for years, myself included. Working full time, family, kids, caring for stuff you think you need, it’s an endless threadmill which for many people simply does not allow time for any hobbies.

GA imho is already below the critical mass, it has no lobby, no political spokesgroup and it is widely regarded as a rich man’s spoils, also thanks to the horrendous cost of maintenance and new planes. Fuel is expensive, yes, but it is not the critical thing (yet). I think we will slowly see a decrease of GA to the point where it becomes insignificant, also with the current generation of owners dying out. Europe is headed towards a socialist state where individualism is not in favour with the powers that are and the middle class is sacrificed on the altar of green clima-scientology. Add to that a thumbling economy which is already reeling from the very real threat of war in Europe within the very near future? Who cares about GA in such a situation where ruling parties in leading countries even put in question the “right” to own a car or a house?

I don’t think it will need a final straw. One day, quietly and without hubbub, it will simply die out but for some flying lawnmowers in those countries which have enough space where they don’t annoy anyone.

Jujupilote wrote:

Maybe Northern Europe see it differently but in any case, standards of living will decrease.
Many people already stopped flying since 2020.
This could the final straw that would bring GA below a critical mass.

The price of AVGAS 91/96UL in Sweden has increased by about €0.3/l in 2021. For a typical club 4-seater this means an average cost increase in the order of €9/hr or 6% in the case of our club. We raised prices by that amount in December, but before that we have had the same prices for almost 3 years, so I don’t think it’s very dramatic.

What is more dramatic in Sweden are enormous increases in electricity costs this winter. This is due to the high price of electricity in Germany and Poland which makes it very profitable for Swedish producers to export electricity to continental Europe. Several times expensive and environmentally unfriendly oil-fuelled power stations that are normally held in reserve for extreme demands have been started because high prices overseas have made it profitable to export power.

Mooney_Driver wrote:

One day, quietly and without hubbub, it will simply die out but for some flying lawnmowers in those countries which have enough space where they don’t annoy anyone.

I think that is very true. If not already there, it is soon. GA has been in decline for a number of years now. I also agree that it is not just financial. That is a big part though.

Many places are just not a pleasure to visit. Glum faced people, angry middle aged men and women. Masks here, masks there. Probably met by enthusiastic health and border police. Oh dear. And I do appreciate that not everywhere is like that, but in reality the majority are.

So, what to do about it? Not sure actually and for the first time in my life, I do not see a way out. Too many people are happy to be screwed, every which way and loose, and the free spirits are likely to be sectioned. I am now just doing my own thing, alone. I am fortunate that financially I can hang on in there, but for what. That does help GA because I am flying for the pleasure it gives me, and no one else frankly. Not a great survival strategy for the industry. The less of us doing it the more difficult it will become.

Yes there is a lot of Stockholm Syndrome in this CV19 crisis. Freedoms will return (because they are needed for economic reasons) but not while the rich countries are chucking money at it, and not while all the scammers are doing well (vinyl gloves are still 3x the normal price).

Plus a lot of pilots have re-evaluated their life and packed up totally.

The energy crisis is one of many aspects of the world going mad via CV19. Electronic components is another. It will settle down but will do a lot of damage.

Just got to hang in there for a while…

In the meantime, the solution is: EuroGA meet-ups Especially fly2ski

Peter wrote:

In the meantime, the solution is: EuroGA meet-ups Especially fly2ski

Already packed, I just need to pick up my new on-ground-deicing device

If we consider the current market prices for aircraft (also in Europe) as a future on flight activity in upcoming years, there is little indication for a decline in GA…

I can’t agree with the doom and misery. In Estonia the flightschools are as busy as ever, the number of planes has increased about 15-20% for the last year- a lot of ultrailights, but also 2 PA46s and A36. And while I have seen some covid inspectors, the encounters have been brief and easy.. As for AVGAS, it has been worse..

ivark wrote:

And while I have seen some covid inspectors, the encounters have been brief and easy..

You are so fortunate. I may consider a move to Estonia if things are that bright and prosperous. Fancy a swap to the UK?

Malibuflyer wrote:

If we consider the current market prices for aircraft (also in Europe) as a future on flight activity in upcoming years, there is little indication for a decline in GA…

The current marketprices reflect a market which has lost quite a few airframes in recent years, so of what there is few for sale becomes expensive. No contradiction, but this price spike will have a negative effect on newcomers trying to enter ownership.

Peter wrote:

In the meantime, the solution is: EuroGA meet-ups Especially fly2ski

Or in other words fly as much as you can. Yep, absolutely.