Stephan_Schwab wrote:
These thoughts were going through my head this morning. However, I had a work related reason for being in Cologne and an alternative means of transportation and no reason to trade work for practice.
It took me about 20 years of flying to work out that this is one of the joys of being a private pilot. Some days, you relish a challenge and want to take on a trip that is near the boundaries of your capabilities and/or experience. Other days, you think “I just want to get there and back, and concentrate on the stuff I need to concentrate on today”. You can. Pity the poor people who fly for a living and don’t get that choice!
EDDH 190920Z 29006KT 8000 -DZ FEW003 BKN006 BKN016 15/14 Q1020 BECMG SCT005 BKN011
I may have a good chance to practice later today. Need to go to Hamburg today.
If taking a go/nogo decision in the morning I try not to let me fool by the current METAR. Often the wether will get better during the day, so also taking the TAF into consideration the situation often looks a little better.
TAF EDDH 190500Z 1906/2012 27005KT 7000 SCT007 BKN012 TEMPO 1906/1914 4500 -DZ BKN007 PROB40 TEMPO 1906/1909 2000 BR BKN004 BECMG 1911/1914 SCT012 BKN015 BECMG 1918/1921 VRB03KT BECMG 1921/1923 4000 BR TEMPO 1923/2007 0500 FG VV001 BECMG 2007/2009 13005KT 7000=
Good point Sebastian, but I agree that if you do not feel comfortable about the flight from the offset, you should not go. And … we all have our own personal limits.
At 400’ I saw the lights landing on RWY 23 at EDDH. :-)
Did not feel unusual.
If taking a go/nogo decision in the morning I try not to let me fool by the current METAR. Often the wether will get better during the day, so also taking the TAF into consideration the situation often looks a little better.
One thing I’ve noticed over the years is a tendency to undercorrect late-clearing morning weather. The sequence usually looks like:
TAF XXXX 190500Z 1906/2012 27005KT 0600 FG SCT001 BKN002 BECMG 1907/1909 9999 SCT020 …
METAR XXXX 190920Z 29006KT 0700 FG SCT002 BKN003 15/14 Q1020
TAF AMD XXXX 190900Z 1909/2012 27005KT 0700 FG SCT001 BKN002 BECMG 1909/1911 9999 SCT020 …
Don’t bet your life on it being VFR by 1100!
My personal theory is that there is a “present-weather bias” when meteorologists make TAFs. That is, they tend to underestimate big changes based on what the weather presently is. If you have a long period of nice weather, they tend to underestimate bad weather coming, and if you sit in the soup then the TAF will often be overly pessimistic. It is basically the opposite of the oft-heard accusation to meteorologists of “didn’t they look out the window?”. ;)
I always try to take as many sources into account as possible, including radar, satellite images, cloud top temperatures, lightning strikes, multiple surface maps by different weather services etc. I feel that only this additional information will give you the necessary feel for interpreting the TAFs.
Before the approach into Hamburg at FL090
After the approach looking towards the threshold for RWY 23 I just landed on
Stephan_Schwab wrote:
I always wonder how one gets to gain experience with flying to approach minimums in actual conditions. Does it just happen one day because the weather is worse than forecast? Do people lower their personal minimums step by step? Or just go for it based on the thought “I’ve trained for that”?
If you do it as a training flight and your experience allows it, you could do it as bosmantico says. However, it sounds like the circumstances surrounding the flight did not allow for that and I’d say you made an excellent Decision. Good old one-liner “it’s better being on the ground wishing you were in the air than being in the air wishing you were on the ground”
And even if you desparately want the training, you could always wait until the conditions are right at your home aerodrome, and then go up for a couple of approaches… with an instructor if you like.
I had my chance a few days later in Hamburg. See pictures above.
