Menu Sign In Contact FAQ
Banner
Welcome to our forums

Why new planes will never sell that much.

Because they are not worth buying.

Someone sell a C150 replacement that’s running costs are half what we have at the moment and they sell 100’s a year.

This does highlight the difference between city dwellers and people living in rural areas / remotely. I simply could not use public transport for most of my day to day activities that require going anywhere.
The same applies with flying, if you’re a fair way away from any major airports etc, GA can provide a huge benefit for getting around.
I’m sure flying would be more popular if the barrier to entry wasn’t so high. Be it price, time, or hassle of exams. The rigid regulation does basically stop development though and maintenance allows aircraft to run nearly indefinitely provided they are maintained properly.

There’s many other developments also. In Munich, and actually in most big German cities carsharing concepts like “car2go” (by Mercedes) and driveNOW (BMW) are very successful. Only car2go has around 700 smart and other Mercedes cars parked all over the city and they are VERY successful in Munich.

We have three cars, all parked in underground garages near our home in downtown … but if i need to go to the center i take a car2go SMART and it costs me less than the subway ticket to get there, and parking is FREE for carsharing cars! It’s between € 1,40 and € 2,50 to get to the center … The cars open with an iPhone app, all very streamlined and simple. You can even use eleectric BMW i3s, nice BMW convertibles, Minis, nice smaller Mercedes types.

There’s seven of these companies in Munich, one renting small motor scooters, another one bicycles.

If I was a student again and in the city, I would probably not have my own car. In my special case (company 350 km away, airport 70 km away) … I do need a car, but really only for these two destinations.

The other thing is that people like having cars.

Apart from using them as a status symbol, they like to be able to leave their stuff in them so that it’s always with them.

EIWT Weston, Ireland

Yes; exactly. Many people who live in London don’t own a car today. But outside London practically everybody does, and in most of the countryside, say 95% to 98% of the UK land area, living without a car is impossible unless one lives like a hermit.

But I can well see LeSving’s argument that self driving cars will reduce car ownership a lot. In cities… It will not be economical to implement it across the countryside – same as taxis work out very expensive.

It’s gonna take time though, because (a) taxi drivers will hate it, and they work damn hard to block Uber from most of Europe, and (b) self driving cars that actually work are a very long time in the future.

Obviously I can’t see this ever happening with planes, short of some sci-fi scenario.

There are also many nice things about owning your own transport. Keeping all your own junk inside is alone a priceless factor for aircraft ownership

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Probably there will be city dwellers and those in more rural places. The city folks will all be using “drones” of some sort and the rural folks will use ancient technology that requires a driver/pilot – much looked at with suspicion by the city folks :-)

Frequent travels around Europe

Patrick wrote:

Though to be honest, the car sharing business areas do not yet include the airfields in the outskirts, so how would I get to the planes…

Well, if I were forced to use public transport to get to my hangar there’s this little red train that goes there… and I own a property within walking distance of its track. I did cover that base but in reality it won’t be necessary as I’ll continue to run at least six or eight personal vehicles indefinitely.

In many cities, free-floating car sharing services are common now.

But mostly because there is no way to park your car in most cities now. The shared cars have their own parking spots and in some places are even allowed to use bus/taxi lanes so other than public transport they can be the only way to actually move at faster than walking pace in many cities.

And the next generation will either use autonomous cars or no car at all, because one can not drive and use the smartphone at the same time (legally at least) and the latter is more important. My son for example who will be 18 soon has zero desire to get a driving license just as most of his classmates.

EDDS - Stuttgart

LeSving wrote:

That’s not what is going to happen. Self driving cars will mean the end of of private car ownership, that is what all experts agree upon. The reason is very simple. At the very moment autonomous cars becomes a reality, there will be companies with fleets of them. When you need a ride, you just talk to your phone and the car will be there.

A lof of what @LeSving is describing here is already reality, minus the autonomous driving.

In many cities, free-floating car sharing services are common now. I’m a very active user of these (even though I own a car). The provider distributes cars all over the city, effectively making sure that there’s a car every couple of hundred meters. You just open it with your smartphone and pay per minute. Usually, they provide different types/sizes of cars for different purposes (such as DriveNow providing Minis, as well as BMW convertibles, or X1 series for transporting stuff). When you’re done, you just drop the car anywhere you like (within the agreed-upon area, i.e. the city). If I weren’t so sentimental about my car, I’d probably sell it. Though to be honest, the car sharing business areas do not yet include the airfields in the outskirts, so how would I get to the planes…

Last Edited by Patrick at 17 May 14:55
Hungriger Wolf (EDHF), Germany

Every Friday night in the town where I live there is a large gathering of old cars, the largest such weekly gathering in the US I’m told. I suspect in 50 years they will still be doing their thing (with the same 1920s to early 1970s cars) and people like me will still be flying light aircraft that are as sustainable as classic cars and motorcycles. What people will do to get to work time will tell, the best solution will emerge and I don’t really care greatly what it is – it’ll likely be boring. But I’m pretty sure nobody will still own and enjoy their 2017 car. They’ll all be used up and thrown away, very much including the one I just bought brand new.

There are plenty of affordable SEPs right now. In the future, years from now, I predict they will slowly rise in value, mitigated to a degree by new factory production and new homebuilt production. But now is the time for a bargain in buying a fully depreciated, well maintained factory built plane.

Last Edited by Silvaire at 17 May 14:07
43 Posts
Sign in to add your message

Back to Top