Your planes’s mechanical condition/performance or your own flying skills?
I exclude weather, because that’s always #1 for me unless CAVOK. Over my two year ownership, every long distance trip has been followed by a trip to the shop to repair newly uncovered squawks. The most dangerous was a “repaired” (at great expense) leaky tank that turned out not repaired on the way back from Crete. I am now breaking in new cylinders after a top and monitoring CHTs that are higher than I would like in the climb. It is amazing how much work I have had done, hoses, shocks, tires, brake system, avionics, top overhaul, etc etc…. The plane seemed fine when I got it and never fell out of the air but then I discovered so much that doesn’t suit me. It’s amazing how these things keep flying even when neglected!
I am not a skilled pilot, but for me the risk factors in order are: 1) weather, 2) plane, 3) me.
Whom do you trust more? Your plane or yourself?
IMO weather can be mitigated. If it’s too bad, don’t fly, turn around or land at nearest airfield. The plane, there is only so much you can do to make sure it is fit for flight. I wouldn’t fly something I wouldn’t survive in (some way or the other) if the engine stops, and engines do stop in mid air, been there done that. This leaves me as the only risk factor.
In now 9 years of ownership I’ve had the engine overhauled after the first year (planned within the first 2 but it was time at 2550 hrs SOH) , I had two flights cancelled when the engine would not start due to water and two due to a faulty shower of sparks box. I’ve had one aborted flight due to alternator voltage regulator failure. As for defects rendering me AOG, that was it. We had two faults with the AP since we have it 3 years ago: One servo failed (warranty) and the main computer failed (out of warranty but Genesys felt they should show courtesy as the AP had flown less than 200 hrs). None of those were AOG and the airplane was operated with AP U/S.
My own flying skills… my biggest problem is currency, particularly since I’ve had my child (now 1 3/4 years old). I am currently even out of rating as I have not managed to fly even the minimum in the 2 years before. I hope this is going to change now, I will probably get my rating back in June as I am away in May. Clearly, my skills are not up to speed but I try to keep them alive with occasional sim flights. I have noticed that I am still very much up to speed with procedures and knowledge of the airplane, will need a few landings to get back to where I was.
I’d look at those factors pretty much as you do. Weather is the big spoilsport for most flights. Me not being up to speed or simply too worn out to go flying is another factor. Unexpected mechanicals have also been a bore the last year when the SOS box failed and was wongly diagnosed by maintenance despite several pointers. But generally, the airplane has been the more reliable factor than weather and myself (due to time restraints and comitments.)
I don’t think that they are independent. If your skills are higher, you can deal better with both mechanical problems and weather.
I think that the most dangerous element is none of these, but psychology.
Timothy wrote:
I think that the most dangerous element is none of these, but psychology.
Yes!
Somehow this shows well in these forums too. Most of the stuff asked about and deliberated are things which could be found out with a simple google but it feels better to get opinions rather than blank fact. Even though especcially in aviation opinion and experience is as important.
I agree with the “psychology” point.
More than half of all fatal accidents can be avoided by having the “skill” to not fly into IMC unplanned, taking enough fuel, and not exceeding the weight that can be carried by the aircraft.
So the risk factors for me are
1) my attitude in general
2) my willingness to perform flights near the boundaries of my or the aircraft’s capability
3) my actual skill
4) the aircraft.
Honestly, I think it’s myself. Especially when it comes to lack of equipment knowledge. I find that’s the biggest hurdle personally – I’m not very good at reading instruction manuals to stuff, and it can result in less than the depth needed when it comes to knowledge. Particularly when it comes to avionics or complex aircraft systems.
Just have to keep learning as much as I can, so when it becomes an emergency, you know what you can and can not do.
Agreed. When you consider most mechanical issues are pilot induced eg fuel mismanagement, we are clearly the weakest link. Pilots obsess over mechanical issues and gadgets to protect themselves. I firmly believe money spent on training is usually a better bet for longevity.
WhiskeyPapa wrote:
I am not a skilled pilot, but for me the risk factors in order are: 1) weather, 2) plane, 3) me.
Whom do you trust more? Your plane or yourself?
I believe it’s the other way around: 1) pilot, 2) plane, 3) weather. That’s what google tells me for “aircraft crash stats”.
But I have to trust myself a little or I wouldn’t be flying.
Weather tools are so good nowadays that it’s difficult to get into bad wx without knowing about it before.
So it’s the airplane. I always think it will fail! :-)
On a more serious note, I think it’s good to stay current and not take too many risks at once.
Checklists, recurrent training, practice for emergencies – all nice if you want to stay safe.
Like Mooney I think I am the greatest risk, also mainly through lack of currency. I also have young children like him, one slightly older and one slightly younger than his.
My transition to the TB20 goes very slowly due to infrequent flying opportunity (I would claim more caused by lack of FI availability than mine over the past three months though).
Generally at about 50 hrs TT including the PPL training I am a very inexperienced and thus insecure pilot. I am afraid of stalls, even more of spins and feel uncomfortable with bank angles higher than 30 degrees or slow flight.
Clearly the risk factors are 1) me 2) weather and a distant 3) mechanical condition of the aircraft
