I think in the US the large existing certified fleet will fly for decades to come in school and rental service, with enough new planes added to make up for attrition, but the average weekend owner/flyer will more and more be flying Experimental Amateur Built and that’s where the action will be in terms of technology. US airports, GA operations and airspace are otherwise stable and I think will continue without significant change. In Europe I have no idea, but with airports and airspace becoming more and more constrained and bureaucratic, reminding me of early car operations that had to have a flagman walking ahead, it’s not hard to see people going to non-certified aircraft and operating out of fields. That it more or less what people told me in Italy 10 or 12 years ago and they seem to have a pretty good flying scene there now – hidden to the greatest extent possible from planning, communication and annoying officialdom.
As with many things in life if the masses are going in another direction, that’s often the best time to buy. For that reason I plan to be flying used certified aircraft for a long time, possibly cherry picking what may become available for sale and enjoying what I have in the meantime.
LeSving wrote:
Not even Aquila is there, one of the best selling trainers for clubs and schools in Europe, not to mention all non-certified aircraft
I noticed that as well. They sold their 200th plane in January 2017 and I think that is since 2002? Not enormously impressive but compared to most companies listed in the GAMA statistics it is quite good and stable. CS-VLA don’t seem to be taken very seriously here, but with 250 kg payload (about 160 kg with full fuel) and over 4 hrs endurance+reserves the A211 is a veritable VFR tourer for two people (unlike most two-seaters). At about 20 liters/hour you also get a pretty economical plane that can be run on MOGAS and faces non of the restrictions of experimental aircraft, unlike most others in the 750 kg MTOW range.
When I started my PPL training on the Aquila I didn’t know anything about the plane but in hindsight it seems I was pretty lucky to get to fly this and not some 50 year old C150 where you can see through the floor due to rust…
MedEwok wrote:
and not some 50 year old C150 where you can see through the floor due to rust…
I think about the only thing you can’t say about the old C150 trainers is that they are corroded and structurally unsafe.
I have just read an interesting statistic in the last US AOPA mag: only 5% of the US GA fleet is Experimental. The context of the comment was that they are involved in 25% of stall/spin accidents.
But unless this is wildly off (which is unlikely given this source) it does suggest that despite the thousands of RVs sold, the vast majority of the US fleet and probably the vast majority of the worldwide fleet is still the same old certified stuff.
There may be several factors in play:
) and this draws a lot of publicity to the activityNot surprising at all. Despite the vast number of experimentals sold, last year the number of new N-registered LSA all brands combined stood at a proud 180.
Peter wrote:
I have just read an interesting statistic in the last US AOPA mag: only 5% of the US GA fleet is Experimental.
What that tells you is that there is a very large number of existing certified aircraft in the US. Three generations of postwar aircraft were built and ‘replaced’ over 70 years but the old ones never actually went away even if many aren’t flown much, have relatively low airframe time and are waiting for somebody to buy, restore and fly them.
The US doesn’t actually need many newly manufactured, factory built and quite expensive airframes and won’t for some time. Cirrus sells a few to those who really want ‘new’, Textron and Piper sells to make up attrition in the training and rental fleets but otherwise the demand is for fast, practical $75-100K kit built aircraft that provide higher performance at reasonable cost. Existing aircraft are otherwise fine (at lower cost than an RV) and new LSA can’t compete on performance relative to an RV, or ownership cost relative to an existing aircraft.
PS the stall/spin rate must have to do with how sport aircraft are flown, plus test flight accidents.
Silvaire wrote:
Mooney appears to be dead again – no surprise.
Not quite so dead by the looks of it.
I understand they delivered a few Acclaim Ultras and have now delivered the first Ovation Ultra. So the makeover seems to have found some customers.
Additionally to that, the press seems to like it too…
Acclaim Ultra has been named piston single of the year by Plane and Pilot magazine.
If the demand is for “fast practical kit” how come all kit manufacturers combined sell less than Cirrus does in a year?
I hope Mooney returns to Aero Friedrichshafen next year. I really would like to see their newborn.
Me too but don’t hold your breath unless one of them gets sold to Europe which they can show.
I’d have hoped for the M10 to show up finally as here in Europe it’s appeal is actually bigger than in the US with that many Conti Diesels already in use, but I have not heard back from them what they are doing with it other than the prototype was flown from Chino to Kerrville a few weeks ago. I think it would make a nice trainer and the J model a lovely little traveller.
