Outside gliding distance to land I think a raft is the only way to go.
I agree and I have one living permanently on the back seat.
It is far more convenient than putting on a life jacket, which frankly most people don’t do for short over-water legs, and it is a hassle with passengers who usually need help to put them on.
Also the constant messing about with jackets eventually damages them, and it would not surprise me if quite a high % don’t actually work. On commercial ships the inspectors often find defunct floation equipment, and there you have a clear responsibility to keep it regularly overhauled, which we don’t have in GA. And overhauling life jackets cost (IME) as much as dumping them and buying new ones.
I vaguely recall the head loses 20% of the total body heat but that is not when partially immersed in water. The thing which will kill you is not loss from the head but the loss from the body which is submerged, and in N Europe it will be fairly quick.
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I think it depends a little on one’s risk appetite and there a few variables that could influence the decision:
a) Water temp. Huge influence on survival time.
b) Proximity of professional rescue services
c) shipping density. One may even plan according to the schedule of ferries..
d) Time of day. Ditching just before sunset is a bad idea.
e) Sea state. Not being in a raft makes it basically impossible to locate you in high seas. Well, maybe a PLB helps a little. However, being a a little cynical, in a high sea/high wind situation you may not even make it into the raft, so might as well not bring one ;)
One thing is to have a raft and the other thing is knowing what to do after a ditching. I recommend taking a course. Quite eye-opening to learn what to do and not to do, especially in a situation of an inverted, submerged cockpit. Things like holding on to the door frame after you open the door to keep the exit as a reference BEFORE you unbuckle, else you may start to float in the cabin and lose your orientation. And how to get into a raft in a moving sea if you did not have the luxury to step into it from the wing.
There are rafts and rafts. Some are solid, stable and protective. But these are usually also quite heavy and bulky which may create a problem while exiting the aircraft. So depending on the environment, a smaller, lighter and uncovered raft may be better.
Vests: A decision to take a raft or not is debatable but I would always wear a vest for any kind of crossing beyond gliding distance, and have occupants wear it for a single-engine aircraft.
aart wrote:
in a high sea/high wind situation you may not even make it into the raft, so might as well not bring one ;)
I went decided to fly to a place where we booked a boat trip, at midday sunny blue sky but 30kts winds, we still decided to go ahead
No ship was sailing the sea that day, after landing we went to the port, no one was willing to go out and excursion was cancelled
Some of the guys at the boat were impressed we even dared to make the flight and made some jokes about “bold and old sailors”, but one of the rescue guys clearly stated that they will not be looking for us if we ditch on the way back (he was bloody serious about it 
)
Now I understand if one ditch in +20kts winds, -5km vis, they are basically on their own until that clears away…
It does not matter how far from land (remember Sala accident, barely 12nm from land)
Two data points:
1) I’ve been to Antarctica twice on ANARE (Australian Antarctic Division) ships. Not cruises, these are resupply and scientific voyages. In both cases the survival drills and the field manual strongly advise to cover your head because of the relatively high loss of body temperature through it. Admittedly, that’s been a few years ago, but I’d trust the ANARE medical team more than the Guardian.
2) a raft is only useful if it has a ladder. Any raft that doesn’t is ballast – no more, no less. You’ll never get into it in real life.
I don’t find life vests cumbersome, as long as they are the constant wear type. We bought some for our club and you don’t even notice you wear the thing after a couple of minutes. Important caveat – these things come in tow flavors: self-inflating or manual inflation. Never, ever, use the self-inflating one in an airplane! You’ll be trapped in the cabin.
You’ll never get into it in real life.
You need only one empirical point to disprove a theory, and I know a TB20 owner who got into my Survival Products raft barely getting his feet wet.
As have many others.
The technique does not involve chucking it into the sea and hoping to climb into it. I am sure I described it in the preceeding pages.
AJ wrote:
If it was under 35% I’d be extremely surprised.
It’s around 15% if I remember correctly the models and actual measurements (if appropriately/equally protected as the rest of the body). Hypothermia is quite complex but pretty well studied. Being involved in technical diving for 15 years and diving in cold water (6 to 8 degrees Celsius) for several hours including multi-hours in-water decompressions, I believe I collected sufficient quantity of facts, information and experience on this topic. I don’t claim the monopoly on correct conclusion but AFAIK it’s close to what I claim according to available researches. Different opinions are ok if they are fact-based rather than pure guessing or myth-based I believe extensive Google search plus registering to some scientific portals, downloading articles and comparing findings can reveal latest conclusions on this topic.
The reason covering your head is mentioned is that it’s the bit of your body commonly left uncovered. In winter, on mountains, covering your feet is even more important.
I always wear a lifejacket in the Jodel, with lap-and-diagonal belts, but have started to worry about accidental inflation in the Bolkow with a full harness. I have accidentally inflated one in the Jodel.
I watched an airforce guy trying to get in a liferaft in a choppy sea. It took many tries before he stayed in it. Young, fit, and knew it was going to happen.
Immediately after, the helicopter winch guy showed how easy it is with experience.
In a small aircraft, the liferaft is a considerable weight.
Survival time in winter sea varies greatly depending on clothing and person.
A question I have been asking myself for a while :
How do people assess the risk of long overwater flights depending on the equipment they are flying ?
On one extreme, the vast majority of people flying an SEP over the north Atlantic will wear an immersion suit. On the other extreme, nobody flying a MET or a jet will.
But for the MEP and SET in between the answer is less clear. Some people wear an immersion suit, other don’t.
How do they reason about it ? Is it a matter of risk of engine failure ? Other systems reliability or redundancy ?
(e.g. the electrical system on a DA42 or 62 which is required to run the engine or the propeller feathering system which can prevent OEI flight if it fails)
Very interested by your thoughts about that
Good questions and I’d be interested in the answers as well. Furthermore, are there any cases known of successful ditching and rescue on NAT crossings? What’s the point of a liferaft if nobody comes for you, or it takes too long? My research into liferaft scenarios showed that even a few hours in one are horrible (sea sickness/vomiting, extreme cold etc..). Given the vast area and distances is a timely rescue even probable?
I spoke to coast guard/naval officers of countries along the Mediterranean and the consensus was that, yes, they do have helicopters and ships available, though not always at full capacity, and if you are far out in the high seas it will take too long for a ship and a helicopter might not have the range. Additionally, far out, there can be meter high waves, that prove an airborne rescue almost impossible.
The most important equipment is a PLB. Without it it is very difficult to find a liferaft let alone a person in a lifevest floating in the sea.
