achimha wrote:
here is another example — speed of airliners. The average speed of airliners has significantly degraded over the last 40 years. The fastest passenger airplane until today is the 747 which has been discontinued and is being faced out by most airlines
I’d say the degradation is trivial, not significant. A quick Google search shows a B747 cruises at M0.855, and the B787 cruises at M0.850. The B777 is M0.84.
Silvaire’s point is valid, but a lot of families have more than one car so there’s still ample opportunity for one car to have an IC engine and for the other to be electric. And charging can be quick enough already that when charging points become as ubiquitous as petrol stations range will cease to be an issue.
kwlf wrote:
Silvaire’s point is valid, but a lot of families have more than one car so there’s still ample opportunity for one car to have an IC engine and for the other to be electric.
My observation (certainly in the US and Canadian market) is that most often both parties want, need and buy a full function car. How that car is propelled is largely irrelevant. The European market is more fashion and PC driven and it may be closer to true there, especially as distances are so short. In the US, for personal use my wife and I average 18,000 miles per year on each of our daily use cars, with some days tripling the average day without being on any kind of trip. On a personal trip maybe between 400 and 800 miles per day. Weekends are less for us because we’re more often on a motorcycle or flying.
Silvaire wrote:
My observation (certainly in the US and Canadian market) is that most often both parties want, need and buy a full function car. How that car is propelled is largely irrelevant. The European market is more fashion and PC driven and it may be closer to true there, especially as distances are so short.
This has little to do with “fashion and PC”. Most of Europe has a much higher population density than North America. Most Europeans live, work and shop in cities. Travel time is usually limited by traffic rather than vehicle speed. Most German families who have two cars could easily replace at least one of them with a fully electric vehicle. The longer range of ICE vehicles is only rarely needed for family trips, so you would need only one of them in the family. Or none if you are willing to put up with public transport, which despite constant moaning is generally excellent around these parts.
As the recharge infrastructure improves and battery capacity increases, ICE vehicles will lose their last remaining advantage and become obsolete. Probably within 15 to 20 years. By then the majority of electricity will be generated by renewables, drastically reducing out carbon emissions footprint.
Peter wrote:
Obviously I know the answer because I have been told it so many times: a moderator is not supposed to participate in the forum.
Rubbish. I’ve moderated since 1991 and I always participate in the fora that I moderate. Otherwise, I would not bother and I’d also not know the first thing about the goings on there.
Alexis wrote:
Yesterday I read an interview iwth a German Car expert who was so arrogant to call Elon Musk a “three hit wonder” etc
He is not the only one. There were a few very critical articles in the papers these days about Tesla. They make HUGE losses and their share price has lost over 20% in recent times. There are serious financial and technological analysts who are of the opinion that Tesla will collapse within a year from now.
It might well be. It would not be the first time that a company who “invents” something revolutionary will fail and others will take over and sit in the made bed. Electric cars will be coming for sure, but if they are going to be the all electric paradise Elon Musk thinks it is, I have my doubts. Particularly as it will mean that a lot of new energy sources will be necessary to feed them all and also to produce all those batteries.
And what happens with burnt out battery packs?
I don’t think so. If Tesla manages to get the production of the model 3 up quickly the shares will recover quickly.
Nobody has ever managed to create something this big without risk.
What do you mean “electric cars will be coming”? They are HERE! Very soon BMW will present the all electric 3-series, Mercedes will follow. And Volvo will build NO conventioanlly powered car already from 2019, onl electric and hybrid.
I also think it is necessary that politics pushed these new technologies forward, more than they do now.
Silvaire wrote:
The European market is more fashion and PC driven and it may be closer to true there, especially as distances are so short.
It has little to do with fashion and PC, but with the fact that several countries in Europe have decided to ban gasoline engines starting a couple of years from now. So either you have electrical cars ready or you are out of the business. People will have no choice than to buy into this technology, which will mean that a lot of them will be very hostile towards it, as they have to give up their beloved gas cars for products many do not really want.
Of course in the larger scheme, it all goes towards the widely spread european political goal of taking away mobility from the masses, force people on public transport wherever possible and then rise the prices to high heavens, as it happens with trains everywhere even now.
But we have to be really worried in the sense that if the powers that are decide that their ban on gasoline engines extends to GA planes as well, then GA will end the moment they go through with this or rather resort to 500 kg single seater ULM types.
The likes of Elon Musk have a huge followership who think that he is the new technology messiah. Well, he has a very vivid imagination but who will pay for it all is yet totally unknown. Tesla for the moment is a car which is way too expensive for the common guy. If they are mandated, lots of people will no longer be able to drive and they will resent that, greatly.
The consequence of such dictatory measures are very visible, especcially in the US, where a disgruntled middle class has elected someone as president who promised to get out of all this what they consider elitist scaremongering. If these technologies are imposed on people and their cars taken away, (which almost certainly would also mean the end of motor driven GA) the same thing would happen in Europe. So politicians should really beware of what they are doing.
Alexis wrote:
I also think it is necessary that politics pushed these new technologies forward, more than they do now.
They are NOT here for the middle and low classes, most of them are luxury products and will remain so for a considerable time to come.
If the politicians think they can get away with forcing the lower and middle classes out of gasoline cars before a equally priced electrical solution is available, they will get the reaction very fast indeed. In that case,the first demagogue who can make them believe he will make sure that they can continue driving their cars will win the next elections fast. It just happened in America in case you have missed it.
The new model 3 is $ 35.000. That’s the price of a typical VW.
I wonder how much it costs to build. 35k $ sounds to me like the 1 mio $ price originally claimed for the Eclipse. Clearly, it is only a question of mass, if they can sell millions of them, then price will fall.
Only once millions of those are out on the street will the owners be told they can’t refuel them because the power grid can’t handle the additional load I suppose.
