Forum,
I further picked up rumours that the supply of AVGAS is stopped in 2025 due to availability of TEL. While I do have a hard time believing this, I am wondering what part of it is true and what lobby is done against such drastic measure (if it contains any truth)?
It is no rumor. The EU gave companies deadline until November 1st 2023 to apply for ban exemption on TEL usage beyond May 1st 2025. There are rumours of only three companies having done so (information source: AOPA). So yes, expect to see the shortage of Avgas increasing over the very next future, same as we already face situation in the Northern Countries.
Peter wrote:
It won’t happen.
I heard that many times, but don’t believe in it anymore. From all we know, only a real bad and big revolution against Brussels and the EU could prevent it happening. Imho, that topic isn’t even on the discussion agenda any more = it is done.
MichaLSA wrote:
I heard that many times, but don’t believe in it anymore
When I was a young boy in the eighties I remember when my dad explained to me the meaning of AVGAS he used in his Cessna 172. I also remember of that time the discussions among the pilots about possible AVGAS supply stoppage. I heard that again and again over all these decades. Now 40 years later we still have AVGAS. Maybe we’ll next see AVGAS 100 VLL….
MichaLSA wrote:
There are rumours of only three companies having done so (information source: AOPA)
But if the three big companies have applied for an exemption that what changes (assuming they are granted the exemption)? A few small suppliers drop out and their sales is taken up by the big companies so nothing changes for the end users?
From all we know, only a real bad and big revolution against Brussels and the EU could prevent it happening. Imho, that topic isn’t even on the discussion agenda any more = it is done.
Look at what it would mean. A large % of European GA would be grounded, and most of those planes would be scrapped since export to the US would be the only option.
Brussels is capable of some really crazy stuff like forcing lead-free soldering, which cost the industry billions, but the big firms absorbed it (and passed it on, spreading the product redesign cost, and stock scrappage, across Europe via inflation) and the smaller firms used various exemptions like the hilarious Control and Monitoring Equipment (which is, ahem, what % of electronics? 
). And nobody was checking compliance anyway… boxes were ticked, compliance managers got bread on the table, and everybody was happy.
This measure, if actually implemented, would cause mayhem because the implementation would be “strict”. Many airfields would close down. Many maintenance companies would close, etc.
Warter will be the first to apply for an exemption. The European 100LL business is worth around €300M a year…
And I don’t even have a dog in this race; my IO540-C4D5D will burn 91UL.
End of AVGAS…?
91/96UL will for sure be available question is what will happen with 100LL.
According to German AOPA at least 3 manufacturers has applied for approval for 100LL after 2025.
My guess is BP and Shell, and most likley Hjelmco oil has applied and Warter as Peter wrote…
On the same webpage it says that in next coming months that EU will get back on the topic.
100LL will be replaced in future for example Gami 100UL, question is when.
If I understand it correctly there are 1 approved 100UL and 2 other on the way.
I also know that Hjelmco has 100UL since 10-15 years back, but it’s not certified due to costs.
If 100LL would be banned 2025 in Europe, then it would be devastating to the GA community.
Darkfixer wrote:
it would be devastating to the GA community
Has anyone got a figure relating to the proportion of aircraft not able to run but only with Avgas?
Mogas is better for the engine, Mogas is better for the environment, Mogas is better for your running costs…
And since Mogas can even be used by @Peter , what’s not to like?
And since Mogas can even be used by @Peter
No fuel injected Lycoming is approved for Mogas. The 225HP 470-K used on the early Debonairs can use Mogas, nearly all the other injected Continentals can’t use Mogas. Although the vintage E-series engines on the early Bonanzas can run on Mogas. OTOH the radials, as in a Cessna 195, can use Mogas. The carburetted Lycomings on the old Piper Apache could run on Mogas
Most clubs and schools have fleets that can theoretically operate on Mogas, but their airport bases don’t have the infrastructure to support Mogas distribution. If Mogas was a panacea, AvGas, especially in Europe would have been phased out of nearly all GA airports.
What proportion of the fleet is fuel injected non mogas? – in effect Piper Arrows II and on, TB20, IO-520 aircraft, later 182’s, Seneca’s, Twinkies – basically the IR/IMCr touring fleet.
