Postponing avionics work due to Russian invasion of Ukraine

Peter wrote:

I was talking about aircraft owners suspending upgrades because (it appears) they think the war will spread and they won’t be flying at all.

Looking at some feedbacks here, it appears to me that the supply situation got worse with the war. Both of it, the supply situation and the war, create uncertainty which puts people off doing things they don’t need to do right now. I guess the combination of the two may well be closer to the actual reason. And if you ask people why, they will simply quote the reason which burns on their minds more first.

I would also think that for companies located in countries near the conflict, such as Lithuania, people may well not commission work there right now out of fear that their airplane may get stranded in a conflict situation. I recall the concerns @dutch_flyer had in February about his plane being in pieces at Kaunas.

Peter wrote:

I was talking about aircraft owners suspending upgrades because (it appears) they think the war will spread and they won’t be flying at all.

If the war spreads to places where GA is common (e.g. Western Europe or further) then not being able to fly will be the least of people’s concerns. Essentially – you have nothing to lose by just doing your upgrade: if the war doesn’t spread you have your upgrade, if the war does spread, then the money you saved by not upgrading will be worthless anyway. Might as well enjoy it while you can if you think there’s a serious chance of the war spreading to a NATO member.

For me it would make sense to rethink any GPS related avionics upgrade as GPS might end up not being reliable anyways. We may be back to the good old ADF at the end.

Mooney_Driver wrote:

I would also think that for companies located in countries near the conflict, such as Lithuania, people may well not commission work there right now out of fear that their airplane may get stranded in a conflict situation. I recall the concerns @dutch_flyer had in February about his plane being in pieces at Kaunas.

This was definitely the case for us, but I would guess the bigger issue is lead times—which seem to be getting worse due to the conflict. I suspect this is due to raw materials which come from Russia, manufacturing difficulties in China, and logistics issues everywhere. The global nature of supply chains has been seriously impacted, and it’s become very difficult to get parts. We switched from a Garmin audio panel to a Trig (which turned out to be a good switch I think) because we just couldn’t get our hands on the Garmin unit.

If the issue is people are stopping flying altogether due to the conflict, that seems harder to understand. Maybe inflation is driving some out?

Peter wrote:

(it appears) they think the war will spread and they won’t be flying at all.

I really don’t think this is the core reason! Many aircraft owners are getting the money from the SMEs they run. In time of high economic uncertainties like this I can understand that some of them rather keep high liquidity than spending money for upgrades of their planes.
I don’t, however, believe many of them are afraid of the war spreading all over Europe…

Malibuflyer wrote:

In time of high economic uncertainties like this I can understand that some of them rather keep high liquidity than spending money for upgrades of their planes.

I don’t, however, believe many of them are afraid of the war spreading all over Europe…

I agree. Liquidity may be very instrumental if you need to get out of Dodge in a hurry.

Incidently I overheard a discussion on this subject yesterday, where people are seriously considering scrambling for safety to places they consider safer in case of a European War such as South America or the Sandpit. Uncertainty and lack of confidence in the system may well stop people from doing upgrades.

Not sure why Spain would be the last place to get hit.

Vlad is a bully and thus tends to attack places that lack the ability for meaningful retaliation. That and his escalation strategy against NATO is to push the boundaries gradually – if he has a go with a nuke somewhere it’ll be against a country that can’t hit back and it’ll be a test of what (if anything) NATO is prepared to do in response. Would NATO declare war on Russia, or use nuclear weapons itself, if Vlad obliterated say Madrid or, to blur the lines a bit more, a non-NATO place like Stockholm?

Conventional war maybe, but I cannot see the NATO nuclear powers using their weapons unless in response to a nuclear attack on their own territory. Thus the vulnerable places might be the ones that are NATO members, but not nuclear-capable themselves and not ‘best buddies’ with the ones that are.