I might have missed it but I haven’t seen this thread mentioning anywhere that the EU has effectively banned combustion engines in new cars by 2035 (EU source) .
The future of car engines is invariably battery electric or hydrogen/fuel cell powered in the EU, no matter what detractors might think of that. My personal view is that the political focus on BEVs is too narrow as hydrogen in particular might be a good way to put our surplus wind and solar power to use once we have enough of that to run the grid without coal, gas and nuclear (which will require a measure of excess capacity). Also, hydrogen doesn’t have the range limitations of BEVs. Most BEVs won’t actually need more than some 200 km or so range, as that is more than sufficient for the daily commute in between charges and hauling the heavy batteries around for longer ranges is just uneconomical.
2035 is just a date – politically far enough out to not matter at all.
MedEwok wrote:
the EU has effectively banned combustion engines in new cars by 2035
Peter wrote:
2035 is just a date – politically far enough out to not matter at all.
Ignoring the communicated intentions of a political adversory does not work. This is clearly the intention of the EU but more importantly, it is the intention of the current German government and they are not likely to wait until then. And even before Germany became red/green, even their conservative parties were moving in the same direction.
So it is a fact that the EU lead by Germany will do everything in their power to shut down combustion engines, be it by outpricing them via taxes or fuel taxes or be it by outright outlawing them. Rumours have it that they also are looking at bringing up an age guilloutine onto older cars, basically saying cars older than a pre-defined number of years would be forced into retirement due to high cost via their certification bodies like TüF and similar control instances.
Ignoring those intentions is similar to what the West did when ignoring Russias intentions in Ukraine. It was known at least since 2014 but everyone put their head in the sand. This is a similar thing. People deny what they feel is not “gonna happen” even though those in power say very openly where they wish to go.
the main problem in my view is the fact that the grid is not up to 100% EV. So that is why I think hydrogen may well be a solution to that. As @MedEwok sais, surplus energy can be used to produce hydrogen.
That could never happen in the UK, where legislation is generally not retrospective in that way. Otherwise e.g. antique cars could not be driven.
The grid is not only not up to 100% EV. It is a factor of 10+ short of being up to 100% EV. Then you have all those who cannot keep an EV because of no charging options – undoubtedly > 50% of the population, especially in countries with a traditionally high acceptance of living in city apartments. The populations in these countries are not even remotely near facing up to the challenges. It would be “no russian cheap gas” (which itself is a painful enough adjustment, even if you buy the liquid stuff instead) multiplied 100×.
When I saw Volvo say they will stop making fuel cars in 2025 (or whatever year it was) I thought “doesn’t affect anybody because nobody has to have a Volvo; if they commit suicide (which they obviously won’t) there are loads of alternatives”. But it was great PR for them, at zero cost.
Present political posturing aside, what may eventually happen is no new cars produced. But with no solution on the horizon for large commercial vehicles, even this is very unlikely.
No denial; just being realistic and pragmatic.
So it is a fact that the EU lead by Germany will do everything in their power to shut down combustion engines
Certainly Germany has shown an impressive ability to shoot itself in the foot by popular acclaim, as seen with nuclear power. Whether the rest of the EU is willing to be led to do the same thing is a different question though. France in particular is very pragmatic about what it wants and absolutely stellar at ignoring EU regulations and so on that it doesn’t like.
Peter wrote:
That could never happen in the UK, where legislation is generally not retrospective in that way. Otherwise e.g. antique cars could not be driven.
What about the ULEZ?
A local measure.
And one primarily driven by a desire to raise revenue, under a green screen. People who live outside London don’t really drive into London anyway, they take the train if they go. The only irritant at present is around Heathrow – it is unclear to me whether the changes later this year mean Heathrow is out of reach or not. The boundary appears to be drawn around it, but enclosing it. If I had to bet, I would say you will be able to access the car parks without paying the ULEZ.
But then again, you could argue that may be a motivator for a lot of the changes governments are pushing. I am sure they, and the motor industry, would prefer me to keep buying (or perhaps ‘subscribing to’ as may be the intended future state model) new cars regularly and keep the consumerism juggernaut rolling. They just aren’t getting enough of my money under the current model, and the thriving used car market with cars that last 20yrs + is hardly optimised for fleecing the consumer.
Peter wrote:
2035 is just a date – politically far enough out to not matter at all.
In this case it matters a lot because the car industry will need the time to adjust their production away from combustion engines. I for one take that date dead serious, there will be no new cars sold with an ICE by 2035 in the EU. This is legally binding.
I am sure the used car market will have Gasoline cars for decades to come, and some applications for heavy or specialist vehicles will probably get exemptions (say fire engines or similar). But as an ordinary person one will have to buy a “renewable” engine car eventually.
We replaced our 2 ICE cars with 2 electric cars a year ago – a Tesla model Y and a Volkswagen ID3.
One year on, we have driven 20,000 miles between them.
I’ll focus on the Tesla for data, because I have much more data available due to to its open APIs:
I’m fortunate to have solar panels at home, which meant most of my driving was free between May and September. I was also able to use a number of free public chargers whilst traveling. The other home charging was done overnight during off peak (low cost) energy rates of £0.075 per kWh. But lets assume I had to pay for everything, at the worst case scenario it would have cost £369 to drive 14,141 miles in the year.
