Peter wrote:
That’s actually not true.
The Vaccinated certainly can test positive to sensitive PCR tests, not that it matters if your doing your own self administered test before boarding. 
Until we understand better (which I don’t believe we do), these passports are the proverbial chocolate teapot, what is needed is for everyone to get vaccinated ASAP.
The Vaccinated certainly can test positive to sensitive PCR tests
I didn’t say they can’t 
And yes it is a vulnerability for any pre-departure testing unless DIY.
But look at much of the UK which is now running below 100ppm (40ppm down here in Sussex). This is way below the false positive rate on any test. This was achieved by vaccing, not the lockdown which is largely ignored (look at the traffic on the roads).
Until we understand better (which I don’t believe we do),
I think a lot of data exists but is not being published, because they don’t want vacced people to go clubbing You know, some of these 60 year olds are quite lively these days; some even do Tinder (and pretend they aren’t looking for casual s*x like the younger customers)
these passports are the proverbial chocolate teapot, what is needed is for everyone to get vaccinated ASAP.
That is really a discussion of (a) economic damage to countries which depend on tourism (much of S. Europe), and (b) unnecessarily restricting travel for those who can do it safely. Against that you have the explosive argument of those not [yet] vacced who can’t travel. Hence we have the current farce of vacc status being disregarded and a requirement for tests.
Point B is what is disputed
Yes; for the same reason that Brussels slagged off AZ: it reduces the demand for it from the public and distracts from the incompetence of the officials who failed to order it early enough. There is clear data – from Israel and the UK – that vacced people shed much less virus. Not zero but much less, and “much less” is a huge thing given that if R < 1 the stuff will gradually die out.
The other elephant in the room is obviously what is going on in India
India is a big problem because a lot of AZ is made there, which delayed action on controlling their travel into Europe. And they do travel a lot; those living in Europe have families in India which they tend to visit constantly. Most people seen currently at EGLL are that traffic – or were until recently. Not sure now, although the current workaround is reportedly to travel via Turkey which sidesteps the hotel quarantine… In the UK, India is also a hot potato because of the colonial angle (all “old” European countries have “colonial angles” ) plus Boris is keen to not p1ss them off because it’s a big place and the UK is busy doing individual trade deals with every country outside the EU (which is most of the known universe).
Mooney_Driver wrote:
That is of course a bullshit justification (vaccination does prevent the spread of infection quite effectively) and I personally wouldn’t enter any country which subjects me, someone fully vaccinated three months ago, to PCR tests.
Switzerland also has made it clear once again, that vaccination does not free travellers from either PCR tests nor Quarantine where required, the reason being that vaccination does not protect from infection, only from illness. They appear to be set on keeping this going until all vaccinations are done, the time now talked about is about October. Kids below 12 are exempt from tests but not from Quarantine if returning from a risk country.
MedEwok wrote:
I personally wouldn’t enter any country which subjects me, someone fully vaccinated three months ago, to PCR tests.
Not even going back to Germany? (just wondering )
The vaccination is clearly working. Here, we’ve had two “circuit breaker” lockdowns this year after cases where the contact tracers could not find any links (“community spread” cases) turned into outbreaks (hundreds of infections in a few days).
After the most recent one ended, we’ve had a few of these “community spread” cases but this time it hasn’t turned into an explosion of cases (and another lockdown), despite everything being open without restrictions (we can go to a pub indoors, for instance).
What has changed between the period before lockdown 2, and now, that we’re not getting an explosion in the case numbers again?
More than 3/4 of the adult population has had at least one vaccination. Most of the “community spread” cases this time around has been confined to teenagers, and virtually all the parents have had one vaccination. At present, everyone over 18 has been encouraged to schedule their vaccination appointment (from May 10th we’re going to be concentrating on second doses, but to date 59,200 people have had at least one vaccination (the 18+ population is roughly 65,000)).
The government says the borders will open to the UK (and that includes GA) once UK 14-day case rates are under 30 per 100K for at least 7 consecutive days, first only to those associated with residents, then for anybody (expected by the end of June).
MedEwok wrote:
That is of course a bullshit justification (vaccination does prevent the spread of infection quite effectively) and I personally wouldn’t enter any country which subjects me, someone fully vaccinated three months ago, to PCR tests.
It remains to be seen. What is said here is, that the vaccination stops you from getting ill, which I think is undisputed. It also sais, that vaccinated people can still be infected, while most won’t even notice. That however means, they can carry the virus and therefore spread it, albeit in much lower concentration, at least that is what I understood. The other fear involved here obviously is that if they drop quarantine for vaccined people who travel to, say, India, which has mutations not yet fully understood, those travellers will bring back that mutation with them, the vaccination does not change that risk. And that is where I believe that our politicians do not wish to be caught with their pants down yet again. So the question will be, can they keep it up or not.
The airlines will exercise massive pressure, as it hits primarily them. Likewise, the very volatile quarantine situation, where half continents can drop or be reassigned quarantine basically at the drop of a hat, which keeps people from travelling.
And yes, you might find that also Germany won’t free you from tests even as someone who is vaccined, if any doubt exists. And they have not only been burnt but rather incinerated by the AZ affair, which, I agree with Peter, could have been a smokescreen. They can’t afford to be implicated in something like this again, especcially not before an election.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
That however means, they can carry the virus and therefore spread it, albeit in much lower concentration, at least that is what I understood.
Correct, and it is that much lower ‘concentration’ which makes restrictions unnecessary.
As soon as the virus enters the body and is successful to infect [at least] one cell, a race starts between the immune system and the virus. The virus quantity in the infected person rises until the immune system catches up, and then falls until the virus is eliminated. If the immune system ‘wins’ early enough, no symptoms develop. If it ‘wins’ late, symptoms develop, and if it does not win in time, the patient dies.
The patient starts spreading at some point, but a vaccinated person spreads less and for shorter than a non-vaccinated person, and possibly not at all. Also, because they have less virus to spread, they people they infect will have a lower initial virus load, which we know from early on again might milden the disease (less of a quantitative head-start for the virus)
All that is needed is that the vaccine reduces spreading by 1/3rd, and the replication rate will be below one. It looks like it reduces it by a LOT more.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
he other fear involved here obviously is that if they drop quarantine for vaccined people who travel to, say, India, which has mutations not yet fully understood, those travellers will bring back that mutation with them,
I fear more that too many people fear this, because with this argument, you can shut down travel forever.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
What is said here is, that the vaccination stops you from getting ill, which I think is undisputed. It also sais, that vaccinated people can still be infected, while most won’t even notice.
That is – unfortunately – a common misunderstanding based on early press reports of journalists that have little clue about clinical trials but therefore an even stronger opinion.
It is true that for some vaccination trials the “clinical endpoint” that was used was not avoiding infections but rather avoiding severe symptoms. That has a plethora of reasons (including that it is sometimes quite difficult to clinically tell a successful vaccination apart from a past infection infection) – but the reasons do not include that anyone had doubts that the vaccine also works against infections.
Turning that around into “vaccine does not protect against infections” is like saying “In microlights proper flight preparation does not help to prevent non Fatal accidents – because the accident statistic only counts fatalities”
Perhaps it also has something to do with no scientist ever saying they are 100% certain of something even when they are because as soon as they do someone finfd an anomaly.
99% even 99.9% yes but I’ve never met one (and I have known many) who will go on record as being 100% certain. And then we have the current state of most so called journalists these days who will make a big thing of the 1% or the O.1% because that’s what creates an audience and then the vox populis starts to believe there is a problem, and then we do have a problem. It gets all over social media and suddenly something that is 99.9% safe becomes a major risk im the eyes of many.And this is fertile ground for conspiracy theorists.
Yes indeed; the media is either dim or – whether they are dim or not – they have to pitch the presentation to the dim.
According to this the vaccines do not fully protect against one of the Indian variants. However some rumours in the business suggest the care home vulnerability is because there is less oxygen in a care home… well anybody who has been in some of them can well believe that… Also care home residents have an average life expectancy of 2.5 years so clearly more likely to die. More flat-out testing going on in certain spots now.
The UK now has ~500 cases of this variant and officially “there is no evidence” it is vaccine resistant, but with 500 cases they will obviously know one way or the other. In the UK, on average, most of the 500 will have already been vacced unless they were young. Hence I would bet most of the 500 are unvaccinated – either because they have just arrived from India or because they are in a religious/ethnic community which is “under the radar” (lots of that going on). The care home cases are clearly an exception to the rule, but hopefully not massively significant.
