LeSving wrote:
This is a common thing for measles and other child deseases.
Aren’t children in Norway routinely vacinated against measles?
Sorry not measles, but chickenpox (I believe the correct translation is) and common flu etc. And now also Corona 
The national health authority say these “infection parties” are OK (not measles though). The corona version of these parties is only to be expected, and poses no risk other than rising the infection rate to insane values, which the local county health authorities are not very happy about
We have to live with Covid for all foreseeable future. We better get used to it, the sooner the better.
LeSving wrote:
According to numbers here, 60% of those in intensive care have already got two shots (of Peisser). Looks like after 6+ months lots of people have lost immunity from vaccines.
That is very scary indeed.
dublinpilot wrote:
Here 50% of those in intensive care are double vaccinated.
With what? Also 50% is way too many for double vaccinations.
Last figures I have heard in the news is that hospitalisations here are 70-80% unvaccinated and practically all ICU patients are unvaccinated.
If the figures are correct, then a third shot is very urgent indeed after 6 months. Unfortunately here they are only available for people over 65, despite the fact that there is plenty of vaccines available. I hope I can get one in December or early next year as my 6 months expire in November.
If this trend continues, then it is back to lockdowns until everyone has a third vaccination. And then every 6 months thereafter.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
That is very scary indeed.
No, that is to be expected. As dublinpilot points out, when almost all of the population had been vaccinated, then a large proportion of hospitalised people will be vaccinated.
LeSving puts it well:
Here about 99% of people above 75 are vaccinated (two doses), and among the people in intensive care, almost all are above 75. So I guess it shows the vaccines work pretty good
LeSving wrote:
Another trend now is parents arranging “infection parties” for children. Typically children in kindergarten and early school. This is a common thing for measles and other child deseases. The principle is to get done with it and move on. Only with Corona, the local health authorities is going balastic, because this creates a situation with rather huge spreading
Norway seems to be very different from Germany – here in Germany we also have such stupid things like “measles parties” once in while – but authorities are not ignoring them but rather file criminal charges against the parents for criminal assault (and other charges). So it is far away from “only with Corona”.
LeSving wrote:
According to numbers here, 60% of those in intensive care have already got two shots (of Peisser). Looks like after 6+ months lots of people have lost immunity from vaccines.
What share of the relevant population is vaccinated? Where do you get the numbers from that people have lost they immunity?
If 100% of population is vaccinated we will (unfortunately) still have some ICU cases as vaccination is not 100% effective and hence 100% of Covid patients on ICU is vaccinated.
Airborne_Again wrote:
No, that is to be expected. As dublinpilot points out, when almost all of the population had been vaccinated, then a large proportion of hospitalised people will be vaccinated.
Not really. The vaccination is supposed to protect people against severe illness. Having to be in an ICU should be a thing not happening to people who are vaccinated. The fact alone that it does is very scary indeed.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
The vaccination is supposed to protect people against severe illness. Having to be in an ICU should be a thing not happening to people who are vaccinated.
For about 20% of the vaccinated, the vaccination is not effective. Therefore it is completely normal and to be expected that even some vaccinated will be infected and will eventually get to the ICU. That is exactly the reason why it is so important to raise vaccination levels: It is not only about personal protection but also about reducing the risk for those who try to protect themselves but can’t because the vaccination is not effective with them.
In addition it is hard for most people to intuitively grasp how such numbers as “% of vaccinated in ICU” should develop if vaccination is effective. A much better metric for checking if vaccination is effective against severe illness is “ICU-patients per confirmed case”. And this number is really promising: In the UK since July we are almost at the same infection/new case levels as in the peak in Jan. The ICU case levels, however, are only one third of the ICU case levels in Jan
Mooney_Driver wrote:
The vaccination is supposed to protect people against severe illness. Having to be in an ICU should be a thing not happening to people who are vaccinated. The fact alone that it does is very scary indeed.
Suppose, for the sake of argument, that 90% of the population is vaccinated, and that the vaccine gives 99,9% protection against severe illness. Furthermore, that among unvaccinated people, 1% will get a severe illness. Then you would expect the ratio of vaccinated to unvaccinated people with severe illness to be about 50-50.
Does that mean that vaccines are ineffective? Certainly not!
World returns to normal, partly…
Malibuflyer wrote:
For about 20% of the vaccinated, the vaccination is not effective.
Fortunately, this is correct but can be misleading. The reason this is so confusing is that a lot of the politicians and the press deal in absolutes, and most people also do.
In the absolute, “binary” view a vaccine is either “effective” in a person and protects them from disease 100% of the time forever, or “ineffective” and protects the person not at all.
In reality, the vaccine protects some people from developing any disease, some people from developing severe disease but they still get ill, and some people from dying but the still need intensive care. Also, the degree of protection wanes over time, there is no magical “it is ineffectve after x months”.
And of course there is no accepted definition of what “effective” and “ineffective” means.
I would say all of this does not matter – at a society level, it is obvious that vaccination is “effective” as it protects the health system from collapse and prevents an unacceptably high level of excess mortality (whatever an acceptable level may be…).
