Peter wrote:
I think the reason the UK is hanging onto the “amber list” (despite overwhelming evidence that it does nothing useful, and costs the taxpayer a fortune via airline and tourist industry support, and making millions miserable because they can’t have a holiday)
Sorry, but do you have other numbers than in the table posted on last page?
According to this table there have been about 90 positive cases in a population of 25.000 traveller from amber countries – in the metric we are all used to talk about that is an incidence value of 360 (per 100.000). That is far beyond any country in Europe – even far beyond UK these days!
Therefore if this data is correct, it is actually a good proof that traveller from amber countries significantly increase the risk of another wave!
0.4%, on a basis of testing 100% of the returning people, PCR, 3 times, is very low.
It could be reduced dramatically with just one test, for example, and no quarantine.
The pre return to UK test is most likely especially pointless, but is instrumental in killing off flying abroad on an airline.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
That was our main problem in the beginning. If in February 2020 the World would have locked down as China did for a month, the pandemic would never have happened.
Wasn’t there cases in Italy already in November 2019?
Malibuflyer wrote:
it is equally clear that travel is one of the main drivers of every spread – not only travel between countries but also within a country.
Exactly. The crux is that, once the virus is in the “community” (i.e., you do not know every individual who has it by name and location) 90% or more of the spread is due to travel within a country, simply driven by the fact that so much more travel takes place.
Hence closing borders is an unnecessary restriction UNLESS you are in a phase where you need to keep a variant out. So I think the German restriction WAS a good idea when they brought it in, it probably slowed things down by a couple of weeks, but by now it makes no difference as the Delta variant is now well established.
It MAY make sense to keep people from the UK (and Germany!) out of other countries until they have their share of Delta infections…
Mooney_Driver wrote:
If in February 2020 the World would have locked down as China did for a month, the pandemic would never have happened.
That is what the Asians did, partly even more strict by locking people into their homes. Where they did it it worked.
It worked nowhere. Even China has not eradicated it. All the restrictions have done is allowing vaccination to catch up.
Peter wrote:
The UK is also incapable of managing the situation, due to centuries-old history of civil freedoms.
Yet the authorities were capable of practically banning travelling anywhere to all population, by threatening with 5k penalty for non-essential travelling. I’m not aware of such practice anywhere else in Europe. Emergency situation requires emergency measures.
Peter wrote:
OTOH the red-list quarantine hotels are truly horrible; 10 days in solitary confinement, some rooms with no windows…
Hm… strange level of civil freedoms 
nothing even remotely close to that has been implemented in my region with definitely shorter history of civil freedoms.
Yes; very true
However, there seems to be an unpublished policy to a) have absolutely massive fines and b) not enforce them, or anything else really.
Agreed this is very non-British. But these measures were pushed through in a panic, by politicians not properly answerable to Parliament. Any Act debated in Parliament would not have crappy stuff like “ok to travel if you arrange to visit an estate agent”
The thing which would not have worked in the UK, and nobody has dared to try it, is a) having these massive fines and b) impose them. Can you imagine the press after some poor woman, in solitary confinement for a week, about to kill herself, escaping to see her kids, and having the police coming round to arrest her and put her in jail?
It’s been a giant cockup and a load of FUD – except the original vaccine procurement which, guess what, was done by a non-govt team of industry people, with a blank cheque.
Interesting too is the almost total suppression of any data on the details e.g. how many people escaped from the 10 day confinement. There is a lot of social media control being done. Probably necessary though; many people get 100% of their news through that channel.
It’s mostly FUD. Not that much is actually law. Some things are, and some things are law with a big fine, but the reliance is on people accepting it without challenge at the ‘fixed penalty notice’ (issued by the police) stage. Almost none of it would stand up if it went to court because it is so broadly worded and open to interpretation. Defence lawyers would drive a coach and horses through the actions and interpretations of the police / prosecution.
90% of our domestic restrictions – especially for the last few months – are simply ‘guidance’. It’s true that a goodly chunk of the population will follow government guidance slavishly, and will also aggressively call out those that don’t, but it’s still just guidance. It’s nothing more than being asked nicely, or sometimes not so nicely. You don’t have to follow it and neither the Prime Minister, nor the police, nor the local clipboard and yellow jacket brigade can make you. One or two parts of the media have called out the government on this and (quietly) pointed out that a government minister issuing ‘instructions’ at the 5pm briefing does not have any actual authority over the population.
The wonderful inconsistency is that many people criticise the government vociferously, then slavishly follow their guidance and aggressively call out others if they don’t. Which is it guys? If these folks in charge are idiots then why are you doing as they tell you?
The government, any government, is generally about the last place I look for advice on how to conduct my life.
Israel is starting to impose measures again, after lifting most of them due to a high vaccination rate.
It appears that the Delta variant is going to put a big dent into expectations of life without measures. I would not be surprised if we are going to see a 4th wave with the Delta variant and will have to resort to full lockdown measures again, possibly even during the summer.
Maybe the UK is doing something right not to open all doors. Only time will tell.
One doc I know thinks that we are totally deluded to think that we will ever come back to a “normal” life, but may well end up with this being the new normal. I can’t say I disagree. With all the mutations coming up and Delta apparently outfoxing some of the vaccines, we may well be back to square one.
In the UK there is a rise in infections
but no significant hospitalisations or deaths. Well, in the usual parts of the country with a high non-vacc rate, some are going into hospital… predictably.
Delta apparently outfoxing some of the vaccines
Which ones? None in the UK. If you got two vaccinations, you can basically forget all about it and carry on as normal. Well, some in the govt always did while some of the rest of us paid £380 to criminals selling tests, having returned from Croatia
Mooney_Driver wrote:
Israel is starting to impose measures again, after lifting most of them due to a high vaccination rate.
Yes, the extremely onerous requirement to wear masks indoors in public places. Oh, the humanity!
The big question is – is this now a harmless disease in the vaccinated or otherwise immunised, or will this lead to a wave of hospitalisations and deaths.
