The “number of countries with zero cases” show that something is seriously wrong with how countries are classified.
Airborne_Again wrote:
“number of countries with zero cases”
Where do you get this number from?
In the table that was posted, the “number of countries” row is a split of all countries in the world in these 3 categories – it doesn’t say that there was actually a traveller coming from that country. Therefore I would assume that the main reason e.g. in the amber group that there are less positive tests than countries is, that there have not been any traveller at all from many of the countries.
Peter wrote:
Politics.
Sure – but not necessarily geopolitics: When the Kent variant came up, the UK government was quite slow and not very strict with lockdown, not enforcing restrictions very strictly, etc.
It would be hard to argue for any government if they said “now it’s about the Indian communities so we will be much stricter …”
Malibuflyer wrote:
In the table that was posted, the “number of countries” row is a split of all countries in the world in these 3 categories – it doesn’t say that there was actually a traveller coming from that country. Therefore I would assume that the main reason e.g. in the amber group that there are less positive tests than countries is, that there have not been any traveller at all from many of the countries.
That’s a matter of interpretation. The table does say “number of countries with zero cases detected”. To me that implies that there have been tests. But sure, your interpretation is also possible.
The number of countries is a red herring. What should not be surprising for anyone with half a brain is that travel between countries with broadly similar proportions of infected people is not a significant contributor to spread, and hence a large number of restrictions is entirely unnecessary.
Also, once a faster spreading variant is out in the wild having a country on the red list is unnecessary.
We now have Germany panicking about the Delta variant, which predictably has doubled its share from around 7 to 15 pc in a week and is pretty much everywhere. That was the data for the week ending 13 June, so by now it is likely to be between 20-30 pc. The forecast is for it to be 90pc by end of August – i think it might happen more quickly, perhaps even by end of July.
Germany is now urging the EU to ban travel from the UK without quarantine from the UK, in the same way Germany imposes a quarantine on UK travellers – completely missing the irony that on the same logic, Germans should be quarantined, and that the quarantine for UK travellers in Germany can now be lifted because while it may have delayed the onset, by now delta is in the wild and there is no point anymore.
Cobalt wrote:
Germany is now urging the EU to ban travel from the UK without quarantine from the UK, in the same way Germany imposes a quarantine on UK travellers – completely missing the irony that on the same logic, Germans should be quarantined, and that the quarantine for UK travellers in Germany can now be lifted because while it may have delayed the onset, by now delta is in the wild and there is no point anymore.
Travel simply reopened way too early and with the relaxed measures now that only about 25% on average are fully vaccined, we will see a 4th wave emerging pretty fast. My gut feel is after the Summer vaccation when people have been partying e.t.c. and then spread the stuff at home. The start of the summer vaccations is only weeks away, no way we can get herd immunity through vaccination until then.
With the mounting reluctance towards vaccinations, there is only one way forward: open up for people with certificates and lock down those who refuse to get one. Certificates can be gotten via full vaccination or testing. Anything else will lead to a new outbreak and the same proceedure as last year, James. Let’s hope it won’t go like Miss Sophie answers: The same proceedure as every year!
Cobalt wrote:
What should not be surprising for anyone with half a brain is that travel between countries with broadly similar proportions of infected people is not a significant contributor to spread,
For those with a full brain, however, it is equally clear that travel is one of the main drivers of every spread – not only travel between countries but also within a country.
It’s also quite obvious that when evaluating the risk of travel it doesn’t matter so much how big the “proportion of infected people” in the target country is (at least in the realistic scenario that this “proportion” is quite low (as in <<50%)). The by far most relevant metric is the probability that the traveller is infected.
To contain an outbreak it would actually be most effective to restrict travel at all (between and within countries): Models show that if you e.g. restrict the radius of movement of each individual to 10km, the spread will be extremely slow and is likely to fade out (esp. when complemented by other local measures to restrict contacts).
The only reason why there is so much focus on international travel el is that in most jurisdictions it is much easier (and in most societies much more accepted) to restrict international travel then to restrict domestic freedom of movement.
Malibuflyer wrote:
To contain an outbreak it would actually be most effective to restrict travel at all (between and within countries): Models show that if you e.g. restrict the radius of movement of each individual to 10km, the spread will be extremely slow and is likely to fade out (esp. when complemented by other local measures to restrict contacts).
That is what the Asians did, partly even more strict by locking people into their homes. Where they did it it worked.
Malibuflyer wrote:
The only reason why there is so much focus on international travel el is that in most jurisdictions it is much easier (and in most societies much more accepted) to restrict international travel then to restrict domestic freedom of movement.
That was our main problem in the beginning. If in February 2020 the World would have locked down as China did for a month, the pandemic would never have happened.
Malibuflyer wrote:
Models show that if you e.g. restrict the radius of movement of each individual to 10km, the spread will be extremely slow and is likely to fade out (esp. when complemented by other local measures to restrict contacts).
Models, are just models, and we have enough countries that are real and not models e.g. Australia that show it doesn’t fade out…
I have heard it said that eventually we will win the war against Covid the same way the US ‘won’ in Vietnam and the Soviets ‘won’ in Afghanistan.
It gets too expensive so you pretend its over.
I hope Croatia and Greece remain smart about this and continues to accept dual vacced people.
I guess they will because they need the tourism, and they are certainly clever enough to get what Cobalt is saying above.
I think the reason the UK is hanging onto the “amber list” (despite overwhelming evidence that it does nothing useful, and costs the taxpayer a fortune via airline and tourist industry support, and making millions miserable because they can’t have a holiday) is simply because
I am sure other countries have similar problems with managing this crisis. However those within EU+schengen have their hands “conveniently” tied to a large degree.
