My measure is that I live just off an A-road that goes through our village – a main road between two medium-sized towns that sees a lot of traffic.
It is now as busy as it ever was pre-Covid. During lockdown 1 it was deserted – people walked their dogs down the middle of it and cycled on it without regard for traffic direction – and in lockdown 2 it quietened a bit but now it is just normal. I can only conclude that people are going to work, going shopping (certainly supermarkets, garden centres and DIY sheds are full) and doing what they do. They may not be in and out of each others houses, and of course the recreational/entertainment/hospitality businesses are closed, but as far as I can see everyone is just getting on with life.
True they are not doing certain things, but I cannot see anyone really paying attention to the “you must stay at home” rule that still technically exists.
Equally, the fact that you may be compliant and know only people who are does not mean it is representative of the population! I am largely compliant – I work from home anyway – but I do not limit the amount I go out for shopping or exercise the way I did in lockdown 1.
The news these days is the unbelievable piled on top of already unbelievable.
If this wasn’t destroying so much of mainland Europe’s economy (which will in turn impact the UK too in the longer term, even if the UK escapes as a result of having managed the vaccination well) then one would just laugh, but it’s a disaster.
I hope Greece and Croatia don’t join the loony club. That would finish their tourism recovery prospects. This says it all really:
I was getting a narrative that these were purely scientific decisions
That’s the narrative because it has to be wrapped up that way, but it’s obviously politically driven because the medical data on serious side effects is at the “ppm” level.
Suspending (or permanently stopping) AZ kills a whole load of political objectives birds with one stone, including some that are heavily brexit-related, and since mainland public confidence in the vaccine was already damaged by earlier stuff, even back-pedalling on all this may not make much difference.
What I find really hard to understand is that there isn’t a revolution (well, a strong backlash against the leadership) on the mainland. A 3rd lockdown coming just as the sun is coming out. Some I know down there are getting really desperate, especially with kids and the schools closing. Well, it’s obvious why: most people (in any country) can barely add 2+2 and if you told them that say 10ppm died due to X, they won’t know what that means.
This 2nd lockdown has been much longer already. The 1st one was about 6 weeks, if I count the time that I could not [practically] fly abroad. The last flight before was to Alderney (just as it was locking down, and has remained so since) and the first flight after was to Mali Losinj (just as it opened up). But this time is much longer; my last trip was to Aosta in early October, so we are now looking at probably 7 months, or 6 if you accept, upon your return, a load of police attention and sitting at home for 2 weeks. Admittedly a lot of this has been brexit-related (the EU closed its borders to outside countries) but it is still a long time, and this is with the UK doing really well and looking forward to normality quite soon.
The mainland is likely to lose much of 2021… the economic and psychological cost will be massive. A friend’s son, 20s, is on Prozac and having counselling, and that is in the UK where as I say things will soon turn around.
This bit is from Greece, and is interesting and unsurprising:
and Italy says the decision is political. Well, no sh*t Sherlock.
Can’t find the source for this one:
It is now as busy as it ever was pre-Covid
Indeed; roads are almost as busy as ever. But most shops are still shut. What remains shut, and on past data does make a big difference, is that pubs bars restaurants etc are closed. It is generally impossible to impose distancing in these.
It is extraordinary the news.
I just cant understand why the EU is now giving itself such a big second mountain to climb. Inevitably the AZ vaccine (based on what we currently know) will be declared safe, a week or so of vaccinations will have been lost, but far more serious, the confidence in the vaccine will have been impacted yet again. Clealy more people will die in consequence.
I can only assume, the way this is being reported in much of Europe, there is hope that the population will not see this in such balck and white terms.
I wish I could understand the motivation? Is this really coming entirely from the scientists, or are the politicians hands all over this?
On a wider issue every drug has some side effects. Some have quite serious side effects, but we consider the potential benefits out weight the risks. Where do we actually stand on vaccines? If the risk was really in the depths of a decimal point, is there a point at which we would still consider the vaccine is better? The line at the moment is effectively in “all circumstances, precaution must prevail”. Would a better response have been to screen for high risk patients in the first instance? We already have some idea of people who may be at higher risk of a blood clot, dont we?
As I write there is even one of the French politicians for example saying we must be satisfied there is NO increased risk. The same politician is saying because AZ did not fullfill all its contractual obligation to the EU, and the AZ vaccine is less effective on the SA vaccine, it has come in for far closer scrutiny – really!
I don’t think the EU has said anything on this ‘safety’ issue, it’s the national governments.
And I think it is pure CYA.
As Jean Castex (French PM) put it, explaining why pausing AZ would be a bad idea:
‘We would have delays in vaccination, French women and men would be less protected and the health crisis would last longer.’
The next day Macron announced the pause. Must have made for an interesting conversation :-)
Fuji_Abound wrote:
I just cant understand why the EU is now giving itself such a big second mountain to climb
I don’t think it’s the EU, I read this morning in one of the papers that the EMA had recommended that vaccinations continue (and the WHO had the same recommendation), it’s individual countries doing this. What I can’t understand is why they are ignoring the evidence of safety and efficacy from over 10 million doses given in the UK. It’s a bit like how EASA ignores things that work perfectly well and safely in the USA, as if the laws of physics were somehow different over there.
I think if the populations of these countries see the UK mostly opened up during the summer, but they are stuck in lockdown, there’s going to be some political backlash, and those who have made these politically-motivated decisions might come to regret it.
@alioth wrote “I think if the populations of these countries see the UK mostly opened up during the summer, but they are stuck in lockdown, there’s going to be some political backlash, and those who have made these politically-motivated decisions might come to regret it.”
I totally agree. In our case we will find out next year, but it will not be the only consideration. Plus a lot can happen between now and then.
Latest from Germany:
Didn’t know there is an English version of the Postillion. Great!
I had to google for that one 
Yes it is brilliant:
This German article google translates well enough (but not the videos of course). It puts across the German govt position. However this is nothing new; it has been known since the start that this occurs in a miniscule % of cases, and happens with MMR too, also at similar insignificant levels.
To say they cannot continue with AZ because “The state is legally obliged to every citizen. Vaccination damage without prior information could lead to legal consequences” is utterly disingenuous; this is a national emergency.
Also the Pfizer vaccine has around 2x the serious side effect rate of the AZ one, although I don’t have an original source for that now, and both are miniscule. So this has political fingerprints all over it, just like everything else in this sorry saga
I’ve come across this long article which attempts to summarise the various issues around CV19, how it spreads, and how to deal with it. It appears to be of US origin.
It’s official: Politicians, not “scientists” were the key decision makers, and against the explicit advice of the EMA.
https://www.ft.com/content/a046e340-892b-4e68-bfae-4f5c40a5506a
This may be behind a paywall (a lot, but not all Covid coverage by the FT is free), so here are the first two paragraphs:
France, Germany, Italy and Spain co-ordinated their decision to temporarily suspend the Oxford/AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine, a senior minister said, as the EU drugs regulator reiterated its view that the benefits of the jab outweighed the risks.
Agnès Pannier-Runacher, France’s industry minister, said the countries acted in an effort to help protect public confidence.
The second sentence has me lost for words, how can anyone be so oblivious as to believe that this move (with a presumed reinstatement of roll-out later) will do anything to build confidence?
