So you dispute that data on the basis that you personally estimate that more testing is going on in Germany?
Of course, it is hard to ensure data is like for like. Certainly in the UK there is a feeling (an estimate perhaps, like yours) that we far more readily ascribe a death to Covid-19 than most other countries.
In any case, you really think Germany’s numbers should be 10x higher? 10x fails a sniff test, it would make displaying the data that they do have completely pointless and ridiculous.
Germany is not really the comparison though. It has a small uptick, yes, but it is not starting to spike like Italy and France. Regardless, a lot of these countries are going to be playing with serious lockdown measures for at least the rest of 2021 and possibly beyond because of the glacial pace of vaccinations.
My point, in showing the graphs, was to show what difference reaching a significant % of the population with a dose of a vaccine means.
Graham wrote:
So you dispute that data on the basis that you personally estimate that more testing is going on in Germany?
Not at all – I don’t even dispute the data at all! The challenge is not the data but the interpretation of the data – and well a bit the fact that the lines for Germany and UK are plotted in the same chart. (UK and Germany are the only two countries where I checked the source – can’t comment on other countries).
The data is the data – and as everyone can read in the explanation (which is excellent in ourworldindata) that the data for UK does include PCR and Antigen tests while the data for Germany does only show PCR tests. (this difference is clearly documented here ). Therefore the German numbers in this graph are actually not comparable to the UK numbers.
To make them comparable one had to estimate the ration of PCR to Antigen tests in each country to either add the number of Antigen tests in Germany or eliminate the Antigen tests from the UK numbers – something which ourworldindata does not do because they do not estimate but just report the actual numbers available.
My estimate for the ration of PCR to Antigen tests in Germany is indeed, that it is at least 1:10 – for the explained reason that PCR tests in Germany are generally only performed as second line after a positive Antigen test.
I personally had 8 antigen tests so far but not a single PCR test so in the UK data set I would show up with 8 tests and in the German data set with 0 (which is obviously statistically irrelevant).
Ok so I checked as you suggested – for all the other countries they seem to be fairly confident they are capturing it all – PCR plus antigen.
I too cannot find any numbers for antigen tests in Germany, just a reference to large scale antigen testing for all starting 1 March including a tweet from Jens Spahn here.
I don’t think 10x can be an estimate of the correct order though. It would place Germany far, far above any other European country by a margin that would be difficult to explain through matters of policy, logistics, expenditure etc. In any case it sounds like really widespread antigen testing is a relatively recent phenomenon and I can’t see how your experience of 8 antigen tests to date would be typical, especially if until relatively recently people have had to pay for them? Did you have symptoms and did you pay each time? I had symptoms once and have had one PCR test – all testing here (of any sort) is free.
So we conclude that the German data is not comparable, fine – we can remove Germany from that comparison. The point is the effect of vaccination – the UK shows cases (and more markedly, deaths) continuing to drop which can only be as a result of vaccination since although we’re still technically in a lockdown the population is now almost wholly non-compliant – everyone is just doing their thing, but without shops, bars and restaurants. EU countries without jabs in a good % of the population show rising numbers…. and I simply emphasised that it seems to be the case even though the UK tests far more than most EU countries (albeit perhaps not Germany!)
Graham wrote:
too cannot find any numbers for antigen tests in Germany,
Sure – there is no central register of antigen tests in Germany. One would have to estimate from sales numbers but there is also no good data source for that I’m aware off.
Graham wrote:
In any case it sounds like really widespread antigen testing is a relatively recent phenomenon and I can’t see how your experience of 8 antigen tests to date would be typical, especially if until relatively recently people have had to pay for them? Did you have symptoms and did you pay each time?
It’s a bit more complex. The latest testing effort is on doing tests without indication – at least one test per population per week is free even w/o specific reasons and/or symptoms. What we already have in Germany for a longer time is test for people who need them – e.g. if you visit people in elderly care homes or hospitals. And these tests typically need to be refreshed every 4-7 days. All of them are antigen tests but, again, not centrally registered.
Graham wrote:
The point is the effect of vaccination
And fully agree here – vaccination works – that is why I’m so mad on the German politicians that they stopped AZ vaccination due to populism….
Malibuflyer wrote:
And fully agree here – vaccination works – that is why I’m so mad on the German politicians that they stopped AZ vaccination due to populism….
The politicians stopped it? I was getting a narrative that these were purely scientific decisions….. I am struggling with the idea that numerous national regulatory bodies full of scientists have been influenced to this degree. Smacks too much of a conspiracy theory for my liking.
I found this that attempts to normalise data between countries:
https://i.redd.it/aytdulqdx5n61.png
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/m5h38r/7_day_case_rate_and_positivity_rate_per_100000/
(2nd link includes quite a long post on how the chart was compiled)
Now Sweden has also suspended the AZ vaccine.
The reason given is “precaution”, pending the EMA investigation. There have been no reported cases in Sweden of vaccine-related trombosis.
Latest from France :
One French person had a blood clot.
5 million French now vaccinated.
AZ vaccination suspended – decision to be made on Thursday as to if to stop or continue – political, not science led, as they await a report on thursday.
There is a new “Brittany Variant” that is not easily detectable with the standard PCR test used in France.
Media very animated here as to whether the decision wrt AZ is correct or not, what a blood clot is, all side effects etc, but only AZ vaccination being discussed in this context. Absolutely no reference this morning to any side effects with Pfizer vaccination or the 10+ million AZ vaccinations in the UK, only to the 5million given in the EU…
Regards, SD..
Graham wrote:
the UK shows cases (and more markedly, deaths) continuing to drop which can only be as a result of vaccination since although we’re still technically in a lockdown the population is now almost wholly non-compliant – everyone is just doing their thing, but without shops, bars and restaurants.
I think this is a vastly exaggerated statement. I am following the rules, my family and extended family are too. In fact, of all my friends, I only know of one who’s ‘stretched the rules’ , and that was with regards to their young child being able to see a grandparent. They used the ‘essential childcare’ justification even though it probably wasn’t “essential”.
You may well be non-compliant, and everyone you know may be too, but that doesn’t mean the" UK population is almost wholly non-compliant"!
I have no idea where this connection between AZ and blood clots came from. It could have been from the same publicity hungry pseudo scientist/crank who started the rumours about the measles mumps and rubella vaccine or it could have been from a respected source or institution which said “there might be something going on here”. Roughly what happened to the scientist who first identified the Covid 19 virus at Wuhan.
He was silenced by his Government an look what happened and how the Chinese Government is now seen in much of the world.
Any government minister is going to call the experts in and ask if there is any truth in it. The experts who had probably approved the AZ vaccine might answer “Well we don’t think so but we haven’t looked for it.”
So does the minister say “Ok no problem, we’ll carry on as we were”. Or
Does he say “Well perhaps we ought to delay the roll out of the AZ vaccine for a little while for the experts to get a more clear cut answer.”
Now when the minister reports to the pm or president he can honestly say, “there are up sides and there are downsides. The major downside is that more people might die of Covid 19. The upside is that we will have done due diligence and no one can sue us if someone who has just had a vaccine dies of a blood clot and we have done nothing”.
Just my opinion.
By the way France do publish the number of positive tests from both anti gen and pcr but not the number of tests carried out. Well not in a clear way. Anyone can get a PCR test at any time, whether you have symptoms or not, free of charge. A Brit couple I know who live in my village just had it done at the lab in the town, results on the internet within a few hours. To come over they had to pay Boots £120 each for a PCR test.
Just over 13million people are signed up to the track and trace app.
Just over 5million vaccinated with over 2million having also received the 2nd dose.
ICU occupancy in my department around 46% France in total approx 82%.
All figures are on the app, updated regularly. Some figures need maths.
