Peter wrote:
Very sad trend in Germany… I wonder why? What is the social reason for this? Most would say that Germany is not exactly a “rebellious / demanding their civil rights” population.
Yes, very sad. The successful management of the first wave was squandered. Arguably, in hindsight, the explanation that we simply “got lucky” during the first wave is more credible than I first thought.
The key reasons, in my opinion, are complacency and political mismanagement. The summer was pretty relaxed here, with low numbers of cases except for the occasional outbreak in abattoirs or following illegal gatherings. Not much was done to prepare for the “flu season” in winter, where colder temperatures would more or less automatically lead to more cases (not because warm temperatures make the virus less infectious…we know that is not the case by now, but because people spend more time indoors where the virus can spread via aerosols).
Notably, the test and trace system is still mostly based on manual labour, using fax machines and pen and paper. No unified IT system in place, each county does its own thing…
This system started to become overwhelmed by September/October. Many people had travelled (traditionally, Germans travel a lot, second to none in the world) and brought the virus back home with them. Quarantine rules for those coming back from abroad were confusing and barely enforced. Testing criteria were redefined several times within weeks.
A small but vocal part of the population opposed the measures to combat the pandemic. Large scale demonstrations took place, which were often allowed to go ahead because the government is always afraid of acting too autocratic, given our history. By November, the labs were overwhelmed. Tests peaked at around 1.6 million a week, which turned out to be the maximum capacity the labs could sustain. People often waited several days before they received their result.
And yet, the government hesitated to initiate decisive action similar to what was done in March (close all schools, nonessential shops, limit the number of contacts outside the household to 1). We entered a “lockdown light” on Nov 2, which did not at all feel like March and only managed to keep cases stagnating at a high level.
Furthermore, the promise of being able to celebrate a relatively normal Christmas (where Germans traditionally return to their hometown and meet their extended family) was used by the politicians like a carrot, so now they can’t backtrack on this.
“Must do Xmas” is the same here. People just don’t “get it”.
On another topic, I watched a programme from the US (BBC Parliament – Washington Journal) this afternoon, where some biotech academic, on the FDA staff, talked about the vaccine situation. He spoke in an educated way which an educated person could learn something from. Here in the UK, we get academics who I am sure are just as clever and who could talk in the same intelligent way, but all one gets on national media is banal stuff for thick stupid people who understand nuffink. When they have questions from the public, they are like “will I be able to hug my granny at xmas” to which there is obviously no answer. Well, a politician will commit suicide by giving the correct answer (“it’s a bloody stupid idea”). And the academic won’t get another research grant if he says that. Van-Tam is almost quite good (and obviously bloody smart) but even he keeps answers to a banal level, for a really thick audience. It’s damn frustrating. I wonder if this is the same elsewhere in Europe?
Most of TV is banal. I have given up watching it. The BBC is pretty much scared of its own shadow (and the Government cutting its licence fee). the commercial channels cater for their audience, there is no money in “intellectual” material. Much of the material is also made with an eye to cost – one cooking show after another (I actually like some of these) and even more quiz shows. I do wonder who watches Uniniversity Challenge these days as I cant imagine many are shouting out the answers.
The internet was once a good source. However, I think there is a greater realisation there is little to be gained by “giving away” worthwhile material. What is avaialble is increasingly better “hidden”, or, of course, behind paywalls.
In fact I think we may be moving to a time when there is more and more “data”, but less and less is available to the average person. A dessert of banal sound bites, facebook and trivia.
EuroGA is the answer! However even forum contributors I think are more careful with the “free” stuff they post. Either they are concerned about the ndas they have signed which prevents them publishing or they are simply sensitive to hanging on to useful material. There is also the inevitable problem of sorting out the wheat from the chaff. I have another interest that has lots of technical and practical content. I know a bit about certain aspects pretty well. Where I do know what I am talking about, if someone asks a question I could answer, you can guarantee 7 out of 10 contributors will jump in with answers that sound very convincing, but are totally wrong. Again, I think people who know their stuff are more reticient to put the record straight. Again EuroGA is generally pretty good.
It is a shame I think the internet has changed so much. There was a time so much of the content was first rate. It seems to me just possible as it has become so widely accessible its value has diminished for the reasons above.
Professionally there is still some very good information, but, as I mentioned it is all behind paywalls, and some, I guess would be classified as very expensive. One service I subscribe to is now well over £1,500 a year, but is good value for money if it is your thing.
Phew feel better now, Sunday rant over. 
Yes, indeed. Lots of different things happening in these different bits of the internet. 20 years after it got going, most people now are trying (mostly uselessly) to make money, forums are full of people pumping YT videos, spouting trash, whatever, but to my amazement even after all this time most businesses have still not learnt how to promote their business in forums (by being helpful, not beating people up as they seem to mostly do). I think a lot of them have given up and prefer to pretend the internet doesn’t exist. I was briefly in an electrical forum, asking questions about 3 phase regs… it was (of course) full of electricians touting for business but nearly all of them were really sh1tty to a newcomer asking questions.
However, I still don’t get why the TV is so completely aimed at stupid viewers. The IQ spectrum has not changed in perhaps 100,000 years. The CV19 crisis has made us watch the news more, I guess, so we notice it more, perhaps?
On long COVID
What I wonder is how this data can be put to good use. If say you could tell somebody (post DNA test) they will possibly die if they catch it, what can they do? This virus is so infectious that unless you go into a solitary life you will catch it eventually (unless vaccinated).
Just read a report from tests in a car. After 15 mins, windows closed, you are almost certain to catch it from another person in the car, and the droplets remain airborne in the car for several hours. Opening all the windows helps greatly, as one would expect. But this makes a taxi quite risky unless you take “ICU” precautions (FFP3 mask, safety glasses). The taxi driver is not going to let you open all the windows (most taxi drivers think they are invincible) and opening just the back ones creates a horrible resonance in most cars.
CV19 is (of the order of) 10x more infectious than a normal cold, in the way one can catch it in confined spaces, so fast.
Fuji_Abound wrote:
In fact I think we may be moving to a time when there is more and more “data”, but less and less is available to the average person. A dessert of banal sound bites, facebook and trivia.
I guess the real problem is that the source information is still there, but it is very hard to make the difference on what is real information and what is fake, biased or outright lies. The Internet has become the main source of fake information based on or targeted to superstition, distortion and misinformation aimed to achieve political or commercial goals. That is a perversion of what the intent was intended to be.
Fuji_Abound wrote:
EuroGA is the answer!
In terms of Covid and aviation absolutely yes. I guess the former thanks to the fact that the cliché still works that there are a good bunch of doctors who are pilots as well. I got a lot better and sincere information and “gut feel” from the health professionals and MD’s here than elsewhere.
And for that, dear Doctors in the room, please accept my profound thanks and appreciation.
As for paywalls. I would have to say, also on the Internet goes what goes elsewhere with few exceptions. Quality does not come cheap. But the Internet has instilled a feel that everything has to be free. There I disagree. Quality content done by journalists, professionals and experts take time and dedication to complete. Therefore, paywalls for certain content is what it used to be to subscribe to newspapers and magazines or to particular books and digests in the old days. Personally I think there is even a danger involved: More and more people will only read online papers which are free, however those in many cases are yellow press rags which nobody in the pre internet days, when they were the same price or had to be paid anyhow, would have touched. At the news stand, we had the serious and yellow press next to each other and there it was the question, which one do I spend my money on. Today, it is the question what is free out there, no matter what it is. Therefore, free papers and other content which is purely advertisement dependent or politically funded have a huge impact on how people make up their minds about very important things.
In the Covid situation we do see that brutally. Yellow press and some TV stations will provide either a total overload on only partially relevant information and will on top of that will cause a saturation with figures and panic normal folks will not understand and eventually start rejecting. This is quite similar to other such issues where an overload on news produce opposite effects. In Corona we are now in a situation where the disbelief or outright rejection by a huge number of people prevents measures from taking effect, where even vital precautions are being shunned and vaccinations believed to be a secret weapon employed by evil forces. With that, I doubt that vaccinations will have the desired effect.
I would not call your post a rant, but rather a good summary on what is going on. IMHO it is a huge problem if a sizable chunk of the population has lost the basic confidence in information, politics and media which is needed for society to function. Covid has shown this brutally. This lapse back into the dark ages of superstition and disinformation has to stop, not only on this subject but generally.
Peter wrote:
[…]giving the correct answer (“it’s a bloody stupid idea”). And the academic won’t get another research grant if he says that. Van-Tam is almost quite good (and obviously bloody smart) but even he keeps answers to a banal level, for a really thick audience. It’s damn frustrating. I wonder if this is the same elsewhere in Europe?
I cannot confirm this for Germany. Virologists and Epidemiologists have gotten a lot of airtime here on TV and Radio and they did get to present a non-dumbed-down expert view on many occasions. The more educated half of the population followed the scientific debates rather closely, with some people publicly taking sides for “their” favourite virologist. The most famous of whom, Prof. Drosten, got a very popular podcast on NDR (north German radio).
The public broadcasters, funded by mandatory TV/radio licensing fees, have been trying to inform people as best as possible. Obviously, some formats are dumbed down to reach a wider audience, but I don’t think it is fair to accuse the media of always doing this.
Interestingly, when people tried to replicate the Dunning Kruger effect in different cultures, it has been found to be particularly strong in Britain and America.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
IMHO it is a huge problem if a sizable chunk of the population has lost the basic confidence in information, politics and media which is needed for society to function
I would argue that until this is the case, society cannot function. Understanding that most of what you hear is untrue, to one degree or another, is the start of understanding reality. If you think a functioning society relies on large numbers of unthinking people to do the work for a small ruling class of manipulative individuals, you and I have a different definition of function.
Silvaire wrote:
I would argue that until this is the case, society cannot function. Understanding that most of what you hear is untrue, to one degree or another, is the start of understanding reality. If you think a functioning society relies on large numbers of unthinking people to do the work for a small ruling class of manipulative individuals, you and I have a different definition of function.
He he, so true. It also relies on the definition of society.
