Fuji_Abound wrote:
I recall the Chinese Ambassador on TV in the UK (I think the BBC) talking about the plight of the Uighurs and I have never heard so many disingenious words spout forth from the mouth of a high ranking official, and I dont say that from the perspective of taking sides.
Then you haven’t heard the Chinese ambassador to Sweden who makes constants attacks on and threats to, in particular, Swedish media. In my opinion he should be declared non grata.
It’s the production process.
Certainly for the AZ vaccine, making it is not like making widgets. It’s a biological process, more akin to brewing beer or growing crops. Some batches have a good yield, others less so.
Last week I planted twelve tomato seeds (four each of three different varieties) because I plan for six plants (two of each) in the greenhouse when we get to summer. As of this evening, seven have germinated and maybe one or two more will. For the ones that do not, I haven’t done anything wrong. Sometimes they just don’t.
Yes, you planned for six and planted 12 because you know the yield you can expect. What did we not know 12 months ago that led to the current situation?
It is not the absolute number of orders, but the timing (the EU will catch up a capacity builds, it is a temporary issue)
So, to use your analogy, what exactly led to not enough seeds in the soil in some regions, or them planted late? It’s not that companies had to worry about demand…
The US seems to have done best in that regard (they started a bit later, but by now the vaccination rate (doses per day per population) is twice the UK’s and around four times the EU’s. the EU is starting to catch up but will take some time, and the UK rate is stagnant (and shifting towards second doses)
Peter wrote:
So yes you can regard Chinese companies as very consistent – in these aspects That is why all the big Western manufacturers keep permanent staff out there; I am sure Apple has no less than 3 figures hanging around Foxconn.
Indeed, if the Chinese ever restricted these “monitors”, I suspect even the major companies would be gone, and the Chinese know it.
My personal view with Covid (and other matters) is China is suffering a major loss of creditability on the world stage. They are challenging the excepted norms, and I worry that the outcome will not be a good one. I suspect however they rely on the rest of the world much more than ultimately the world relies on China, and I think the world has realised and will do much to rest away the existing reliance. Covid has exposed this more so than anything else with PPE, as one example, but there are many others with rare elements etc. I think China is on the wrong path. I think they are testing the boundaries which is fair enough, but are close to, and perhaps already have gone to far, and are losing more friends as time goes by. It is a great shame, for a great nation.
Graham wrote:
It’s a biological process, more akin to brewing beer
LOL, why oh why could they not make it taste like beer, look like beer and fill it in a can and serve it cold and free at the pub. Would help the vaccination readiness and speed to no ends.
Cobalt wrote:
The US seems to have done best in that regard (they started a bit later, but by now the vaccination rate (doses per day per population) is twice the UK’s and around four times the EU’s. the EU is starting to catch up but will take some time, and the UK rate is stagnant (and shifting towards second doses)
I dont know where you get those numbers from.
The US did 4 million a day for a population of 328 million (their peak number I think).
The UK in the last week average half a million a day on a population of 67 million.
Never the less I do agree USA is speeding up, and the UK is slowing, although a slowing for a month was predicted, lets hope it doesnt last longer.
The German vaccination campaign is set to speed up considerably , probably able to offer every adult who wants it a full vaccination by the end of july.
This week, vaccinations at GP practices started (so far they were only carried out in vaccination centres). My wife, herself a GP, benefitted by recieving her first dose of BioNTech finally.
Despite national headlines indicating an increasing occupation of ICU beds by Covid-19 patients, everything continues as normal in my hospital (where ICU occupancy has also not changed over the past few weeks).
Cobalt wrote:
Yes, you planned for six and planted 12 because you know the yield you can expect. What did we not know 12 months ago that led to the current situation?It is not the absolute number of orders, but the timing (the EU will catch up a capacity builds, it is a temporary issue)
So, to use your analogy, what exactly led to not enough seeds in the soil in some regions, or them planted late? It’s not that companies had to worry about demand…
The major differences are:
1) I am well experienced with the vagaries of tomato seed germination rates – I have grown them before.
2) It costs me almost nothing to plant twice the desired yield, and the seeds/pots/compost are easily available in almost infinite quantities. My limiting factor (if I needed to try for ~100 plants) is probably south-facing windowsill space.
Neither is true for vaccines. None of them have made these particular products before, and the equipment/expertise required to produce them means that it is not a trivial matter to scale your production capacity up by 10×.
Fuji_Abound wrote:
Never the less I do agree USA is speeding up, and the UK is slowing, although a slowing for a month was predicted, lets hope it doesnt last longer.
Hard to be sure what exactly is happening in the UK, since the government appears to operate a policy of not commenting on supply – presumably to avoid souring relations with any supplier or contributing to international disputes. There is clearly some secret horse-trading going on though, in terms of what the EU will allow to leave its territory and thus how much Pfizer the UK is getting. In the last 24 hours Australia has also complained of a de facto blockade by the EU.
The simple mathematics of the UK rollout is that, assuming constant supply, first jabs would slow to a trickle by mid-April because the entire supply would be needed for second jabs falling due at numbers around half a million per day.
Very low numbers over the weekend, but that is probably mostly due to the Easter holidays.
The effect of the vaccine roll out on infections, hospitalisations and deaths continues to be dramatic. All are still dropping like a TB10 at best glide speed.
Fuji_Abound wrote:
I dont know where you get those numbers from.The US did 4 million a day for a population of 328 million (their peak number I think).
The UK in the last week average half a million a day on a population of 67 million.
I use the FT, but you seem to use a similar source. Using your numbers: US → 1.2 per 100 per day. UK —> 0.7 per 100 per day. Approximately twice in the US per population.
The main difference is that the FT uses a 7-day rolling average (3 million) while you use the daily peak (4 million), both are correct [as of two days ago].
The reality is a bit more complicated, as usual (for example UK dropping because, presumably, of shipments from India not arriving).
Here per head:
And here the absolute numbers:
The question remains – what did the US do to get it right?
Cobalt wrote:
The question remains – what did the US do to get it right?
Pfizer and Moderna are US companies and manufacture on a large scale (larger than they manufacture anywhere else) in the US?
As I understand it there is no export ban from the US, but nor are there any exports.
Watch Contagion. No question of export.
