172driver wrote:
I can only hope that this gives our local ‘leaders’ here in L.A. pause for thought in their push to densify the city.
Speaking of LA. I’ve read and seen videos that show all the homeless in skid row basically going about as normal. I understood the shelter in place allowed for them to leave their tents up all the time and socially distance for their safety. Yet it seems it’s being ignored and they seem to be gathering as normal. Presumably it could race through this presumably more vulnerable group. What are your thoughts on this?
Off_Field wrote:
What are your thoughts on this?
That Las Vegas has really solved this as you‘d expect from them – paint some social distancing lines on a parking lot, problem solved!?
Rwy20 wrote:
That Las Vegas
The question was about LA
The homeless situation in L.A. is a crying shame, there’s no way to put any positive spin on it. Our so-called city ‘leaders’ (and I really hesitate to use that term) are unwilling and/or unable to solve the problem. The taxpayers have approved a massive amount towards homelessness through a local tax increase, but nothing gets done. A big part of the problem is that many (most…) of these poor souls have mental and/or drug abuse issues. Some sort of shelter alone isn’t going to help all that much. Add to that the fact that the mild climate and liberal society act as a magnet for drifters from all over the US. Here they literally run out of road. I’m not really up to speed what’s being done right now, other than some shelters and a – spaced out – tent city on the grounds of the Veterans Administration.
gallois wrote:
Have you considered the number of road traffic accidents and work related accidents which are no longer occurring due to lockdowns and if not would that skew your figures.
Funny thing, I also was surprised to see in several places (sorry, no reference at hand, will post later if found) that number of accidents at home are consistently greater than road accidents. As usual, generalisations, some exception existis somewhere I’m sure.
gallois wrote:
do you think that the government and its scientific advisers have not seen these figures or are ignoring them for one reason or another?
Or is it your point that the public is at fault for misinterpreting the numbers of deaths being reported each day and we should carry on as usual.
Trying not to repeat myself and specially not write long posts again, I still believe a lot of what I said in post #456 https://www.euroga.org/forums/hangar-talk/11742-corona-covid-19-virus-general-discussion?page=51#post_242089
Mainly that the media circus induced a panic that made rational thinking very hard. And we all know how ‘data’ can be used to show anything.
As for government advisors…. I guess it’s their job to always imagine, worry, and ‘prepare’ for worst case scenarios. We pilots hear a lot about about “confirmation bias”, could they not suffer from it too?
In the UK, it looks like the person responsible for the IC study, previously had wild claims about swine flu, and also was responsible for a rash decision to cull millions of cattle because of foot-and-mouth disease. And according to wikipedia, he already wanted to close schools in 2009. Remind me again how many people died of swine flu?
But I want to repeat that I think politicians where just as scared as everybody else, and I don’t believe in any global conspiracy. (Which is not the same as saying that every single politician is doing everything without malice)
aart wrote:
So if you would have ruled the world what exactly would you have done?
Gosh, you guys put me in an awkward spot. You really don’t want me ruling the world… @Emir can take over anytime :-)
Can I suggest an exercise?
Imagine, crazy I know, that China never said anything about a new dangerous virus, never did the unprecedented procedure of quarantining healthy people and all that.
Knowing what we know now, that the virus is not killing millions, what would have happened? Even if this turns out to be, not only a bad year for flu and cold deaths, but a really bad year, would we ever see more than the occasional news item about hospitals being overwhelmed, maybe the usual political discussions about health care funding? Maybe a few more articles like this one, from 2018(!) questioning a "multitude of pneumonia cases“ in Italy? https://www.aerzteblatt.de/nachrichten/97750/Vielzahl-an-Lungenentzuendungen-beunruhigen-Behoerden-in-Norditalien
But you ask what I would do, and really, it’s not for me to say that. My opinion in general terms, would be to follow Sweden’s stance on protecting the vulnerable.
More to the point, trying to get answers to the questions Prof. Sucharit Bhakdi asked in his open letter, hoping it would lead to more informed decisions:
“1: How does the current workload of intensive care units with patients with diagnosed COVID-19 compare to other coronavirus infections, and to what extent will this data be taken into account in further decision-making by the federal government?
2: How does the current workload of intensive care units with patients with diagnosed COVID-19 compare to other coronavirus infections, and to what extent will this data be taken into account in further decision-making by the federal government? In addition: Has the above study been taken into account in the planning so far? Here too, of course, „diagnosed“ means that the virus plays a decisive role in the patient’s state of illness, and not that previous illnesses play a greater role.
3: Has there already been a random sample of the healthy general population to validate the real spread of the virus, or is this planned in the near future?
4: (this one needs context)
At the same time, the mistake is being made worldwide to report virus-related deaths as soon as it is established that the virus was present at the time of death – regardless of other factors. This violates a basic principle of infectiology: only when it is certain that an agent has played a significant role in the disease or death may a diagnosis be made. The Association of the Scientific Medical Societies of Germany expressly writes in its guidelines: „In addition to the cause of death, a causal chain must be stated, with the corresponding underlying disease in third place on the death certificate. Occasionally, four-linked causal chains must also be stated.“
Has Germany simply followed this trend of a COVID-19 general suspicion? And: is it intended to continue this categorisation uncritically as in other countries? How, then, is a distinction to be made between genuine corona-related deaths and accidental virus presence at the time of death? "
https://swprs.org/open-letter-from-professor-sucharit-bhakdi-to-german-chancellor-dr-angela-merkel/
I’ll finish by repeating once again: I do not want a single preventable death to happen, much less thousands or more, and I’m not worried about the ‘economy’ but what it means to people’s well being, and ultimately the lives of so many.
If on account of this, we find ways to treat more frail people suffering from respiratory diseases, and many can extend their lives, it would be awesome!
hmng wrote:
3: Has there already been a random sample of the healthy general population to validate the real spread of the virus, or is this planned in the near future?
That is the most important step which needs to be taken now as soon as practicable. The pre-condition for that is to have massive test capability to a) test anyone who wants to be tested and b) test for antibodies / immunity rather than actual infections.
hmng wrote:
My opinion in general terms, would be to follow Sweden’s stance on protecting the vulnerable.
It appears that also Sweden has to backpedal on that a bit now. But that is beyond the point. The virus is still pretty much unknown as in what it actually will do to people apart from killing a sizable number. Medicine starts to get ideas on how to treat it, how to avoid deaths (by the looks of it, intubation may actually be contraproductive but who would have know that…) and how to avoid overload of hospitals, which obviously was the main concern following the catastrophic conditions in Wohan, Italy and now NY. Also it only starts to emerge that the virus not only attacks the lungs but also other organs and one theory now comes up saying that many who died actually died of the heart being affected rather than lungs.
Another bit which is currently almost a blank sheet of paper still is what the virus will do in lasting damage to those who survive it. There are quite a few reports on lung damage, whether that is permanent or not is unknown, there are other reports on relapse of illness in “cured” people (South Korea) and there are reports of the virus behaving differently in different places, i.e. NY vs Europe with deaths occurring at a frighteninly fast rate.
Before we know more, have tests and treatments or ideally a vaccine, it will be a very hard call to stop measures and allow the spread of it to increase again. Austria now is the guinea pig in that in Europe, with their relaxed restrictions, as well as what we know from Asia.
The lessons learnt will be significant and hopefully cause the medical facilities as well as politicians to be better prepared for the expected 2nd wave in fall and for any further such plagues. The main reason things went totally out of hand was that almost all countries were NOT prepared and therefore found themselfs in a situation where they had no provisions of material, no facilities and no plan to deal with a infestation like this. Therefore their reaction was too slow, too haphazardous initially which let the situation deteriorate beyond the managable. With a proper response in place, I agree that most of the measures now taken would have been over the top, but if you don’t even have enough material to supply the front line people in the health care sector with basic protection masks e.t.c. then the principal goal had to be to keep the number of infections down so they could receive treatment. I agree this is not ideal, far from it, but there was no other choice.
Once the fat lady has sung on this thing, we will all be the wiser. Right now, it appears that the countries who went in the most strict and fast will be back on their feet a long time before those who let the plague overwhelm them. There need to be lessons learnt from this and there will be. But up to the point where we know better what this thing actually can do to people, personally I see no other choice than continue on the path we are on, which will go in the direction of relaxation of lockdowns with accompaning measures such as masks and increased hygiene. My uptake is that with the current numbers on the recess this is possible within a few weeks of now.
I am informed by a Swede that the media reports of the place being open and all working normally are bunk, and that there is a considerable reduction in social activity.
Peter wrote:
I am informed by a Swede that the media reports of the place being open and all working normally are bunk, and that there is a considerable reduction in social activity.
That has been reported on here as well. It is not “business as usual” in Sweden either. Just not a “we’ll beat everyone with a stick who steps outside their house” type of lockdown.
Rwy20 wrote:
Peter wrote:
I am informed by a Swede that the media reports of the place being open and all working normally are bunk, and that there is a considerable reduction in social activity.
That has been reported on here as well. It is not “business as usual” in Sweden either. Just not a “we’ll beat everyone with a stick who steps outside their house” type of lockdown.
Which is, of course, sensible… but then that didnt work when it was initially tried here in France and in the UK.
Rwy20 wrote:
That has been reported on here as well. It is not “business as usual” in Sweden either. Just not a “we’ll beat everyone with a stick who steps outside their house” type of lockdown.
That is true for Germany as well (at least for Lower Saxony, some measures are dependent on the Land , with Bavaria having some of the strictest measures). Here you are allowed to go for a walk (and not just once per day or so) and can even do so with 1 person from outside your household.
Tonight, the Chancellor and the Minister Presidents of the Länder will decide when, whether and how to relax restrictions. I am not expecting a quick return to normal, but shops might be permitted to open again after undertaking certain measures, similar to Austria. In the evening, we will know more…
