Corona / Covid-19 Virus - General Discussion (politics go to the Off Topic / Politics thread)

otherwise I don’t see how this will ever end

AIUI, diseases which spread by “contact” die out once the infectious population density falls below a certain threshold. Otherwise, we would all get Ebola, etc. Or, taking a more mathematically stretched example but equally valid for the argument, with so many people shagging off Tinder we would all have HIV.

That threshold will fairly obviously depend on the parameters of the disease, as well as population density and movement, which is why these avian flu things are so much more dangerous today, with high population density and lots of cheap travel. In the old days some disease might wipe out a community of say 10k but if nobody travelled, it wasn’t really noticed…

It is the same thing with vaccinations, but in the opposite direction. Once the vaccinated % is above a certain threshold, the disease dies out. Hence, the fashionable / gullible anti-vaxxers are so dangerous today.

Reading some ski forums it is sad to read the desperate posts by people who are looking at losing 4 figures because the UK govt has not declared France etc no-go, so cancellations cannot be claimed off the insurance. So many people are desperately trying to go on ski holidays right now – to anywhere where the place has not yet quite shut down. The result back home will be predictable, but money talks, as always.

They don’t always die out though and you don’t always become immune. The ’flu mutates every year, and every year we pick up a new strain. After an infection with Norovirus you gradually lose immunity which is why people in healthcare can have the joy of D&V over and over again.

Apparently you gradually lose immunity to some other coronaviruses in a similar way, so I suspect it may carry on ticking over indefinitely, after the initial outbreak has passed. This is also part of the reason there is some doubt as to whether an effective vaccine for it is feasible.

Mooney_Driver wrote:

sitting next to people outside your own family that close together would be looked at as a massive risk

Really? I’d suggest you read that again and consider what you will do with your life for the period until a vaccine is produced. Are you honestly going into hibernation from “massive” fear? You won’t for now take a flight with another person sitting next to you?

Cuckoo, Cuckoo

kwlf wrote:

Managing your own risk in these circumstances is the wrong paradigm

On what basis?

For me, its the only and best option and the responsible course. I also think nothing being done by government other than aggressively adding additional funding to commercial vaccine development is going to make any difference, that many of the reactions in that direction are economically unsustainable. As always in a crisis, I think the risk is government permanently screwing things up so badly that it can’t be unwound later by cooler and wiser heads – i.e. the old “never let a crisis go to waste” saying, in politics

Silvaire wrote:

Are you honestly going into hibernation from “massive” fear? You won’t for now take a flight with another person sitting next to you?

Well, I am responsible for my family and also part of a relatively small team to keep our job going, in both cases an infection would have massive consequences. Therefore we are all trying to minimize risks as much as we can. No use of public transport, no gatherings where a personal distance of 2 – 3 m is not possible, our company works home office as much as possible and with massive caution where not and I am trying very hard to keep my family healthy by keeping to the hygiene rules strictly and keeping social distance as much as possible.

No, at the moment I will neither take anyone in my car, nor would I do flight training right now. Quite possibly this may be the final straw to end my flying altogether, as right now, the experts here are talking of this condition to stay around for at least until September!

Personally I think we have seen nothing yet. Looking at some projections, we will see a global total standstill within some weeks, at least in commercial passenger aviation and public transport. Quite possibly personal transport will become much more important and practically this could also mean GA. You control who is in your plane or automobile.

Clearly people have to eat and therefore shop for groceries and go to work where work is essential, but other than that, isolation is the only way to stay safe.

More and more people realize that this is a situation where normal rules do no longer apply. It is not that dramatic in the US yet, you guys are more or less where we were 2 weeks ago, denial, disbelief and whistling in the dark, but Europe is now fully in disaster mode, particularly Italy and, consequently, Switzerland as well. The rest will follow, make no mistake.

Mooney_Driver wrote:

he experts here are talking of this condition to stay around for at least until September

We usually take a European motorcycle trip in June or September, one or both, and given the political issues its looking like maybe the best course will be to delay the June trip until September. We’ll see, I’ll decide by May.

No, but sitting next to people outside your own family that close together would be looked at as a massive risk. Same goes for flight training btw. It is an individual thing to decide if someone wants to continue or not, but it should not be forced to happen if not necessary.

Italy has just banned going to the hairdressers, which in some respects is a similar service. i.e. they interact on a 1:1 basis, one person being the customer and the other person being the hairdresser who will see many customers over the course of the day. Presumably the same measures will also restrict flight reviews (this thread seems curiously devoid of Italians at the moment?) but personally I can’t imagine that deregulating private flight training will be high on anyone’s list of priorities. My hope is that the Italian lockdown will be able to be replaced with something less onerous when the outbreak is under control.

Silvaire:

Social distancing, like vaccination, is something that will only work well when everybody joins in.

I can criticise the British response on many counts, but as of yesterday we had tested 387 people per million. You mocked the Italian medical system, but they managed to test 1005 people per million. The USA had managed to test only 26 people per million – a fiasco that should be a national scandal. Despite this, you have identified 4x the number of COVID-19 deaths that we have in the UK (32 to 8) but have only identified 2x the number of carriers.

As American individualism doesn’t seem to preclude advising other countries how they should run themselves, I feel free to make my own comments in return:

Everything points towards the USA being hit by this hard. I can actually respect the perspective that it may be better to let the economy continue as normal and accept the death of a few percent of the population. Harsh, but something you can argue a case for. And if that’s the road you choose to take your country down, it’s something you should make a case for.

But rather than standing up and telling it like it is, Trump compares COVID-19 to the ‘flu – a comparative pussycat of a disease. His personal view is that death rates are way overestimated. We hear that the virus is a non-issue, but also that it justifies building the Mexican wall. Test kits for the disease are remarkably sparsely available. And the CDC isn’t allowed to communicate with the public without political oversight. China and Italy shut themselves down, but all the fuss in the US is a Democrat political ploy.

Hard decisions should be made with some reference to reality.

If I am wrong, then I will be pleased. If not, and in retrospect the price is considered too high, I hope your country holds its leadership and much of its media to account for their failings.

I think there’s a lot of politics involved, and I too hope things on the US remain under control. Relatively low population density will help in many areas. We’ll see.

Killing the economy is not a solution and people who are vulnerable need to realize that the world cannot and will not stop for their benefit. I don’t need to make a case for the obvious. They need to control their own exposure for their own benefit, in conjunction with good health insurance and good, well funded medicine and technology – which I hope will produce a vaccine ASAP. I’m sure your patients will much appreciate whatever you can do in the meantime.

My 89 year old mother with well controlled COPD is planning a UK trip next month, after cancelling it last year and subsequently enduring a $500K operation, month in hospital, more rehab etc to get her in shape to do it… She’s now doing great. I haven’t spoken to her but I’m wondering what she’s going to do… her choice, her consequences. I’m guessing I’ll be taking her to airport. We’ll see… (edited to add that by coincidence she just called to say she’s not going, doctor’s advice)

Only the Italians would act to ban (specifically, explicitly) going to the hairdressers, as opposed to letting people figure that out for themselves. And I suspect only the Italians will ignore that regulation and successfully dodge taxes in the volume they now undoubtedly will! Love ‘em – the only reason I learned the language and subsequently spent so much time there immersed in people I met.

I’m hoping for and expecting recovery in about two years, which would minimize the impact on my retirement fund… on which I plan to be drawing in six years. The risk in the US is that we’ll get a left leaning administration that will discourage initiative and growth for much longer.

My job won’t be affected, I chose a stable job 30 years ago with long term growth in mind. Part of that is buying when others aren’t and when the economy is bad I’ve always been a good position to buy stuff (e.g. including toys) at low cost… and did it in the past. Now with the retirement fund issue I’m no longer doing that, but I will instead be buying more investments than normal when the time seems right.